General Election 2020 Part 2

This is what you said about the overspend and who benefited from it.

Yes, in reaction to you saying it was to benefit the mega wealthy.

As it happens, Denis O’Brien’s Actavo are one of the sub contractors and got a lot of blame. Actavo have shipped huge losses from the NCH.

Get back to work ya bum.

Electoral reality is that Sinn Fein got the most votes nationally and have been slowly and steadily building since 1997. Fianna Fail and to a lesser extent Fine Gael are toxic brands with little to no youth support. Fine Gael at least have their own niche so should be alright in the longer term but Fianna Fail is facing an existential crisis. Their nationalist clothes have been completely stolen and economically they are not trusted.

Labour never came close to being the largest party. Labour did not have a nationalist or populist edge to them. Haughey did, Sinn Fein have it. Sinn Fein have a Marmite element to them that Haughey did. You either love them or you hate them, and unlike Labour, they talk themselves up endlessly and play the populist, nationalist game. That’s exactly what Haughey did. Their support is likely to be a lot, lot stickier than Labour’s.

@Fagan_ODowd please set up a dedicated thread for your memories from 70s and 80s. I could read your stories all day long

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@anon67715551 please do same for the 1950’s

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They did, that doesn’t translate into seats dodo.

I think you should probably drop the Dutch pensioner angle or you’ll join Flanagan, Murphy and Harris in being muzzled. Hang on … I always suspected you were Brian Hayes tbh.

Did you not hear? Sinn Fein won. You should have already handed in your notice, got dole money and your free #gaff. No one works anymore bud, working is for mugs.

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:roll_eyes:

Says the FF man… what stance are you lot taking today?

There isnt enough numbers for it to work without one of FFG going in, that the reality of it.

He wasted his vote on Michael McGrath.

But that is still not anywhere close to what Charlie Haughey had.

He had a huge base to work off and countered another big personality (Garret the Good) with his own strong man leadership.

This is far more similar to Spring in 1992. This is building up from a smaller base, only unlike Spring they are claiming victory.

I do think there is a shot for SF to keep getting more popular, that’s to become more like FF. But the electoral arithmetic does not allow for that at the moment for them. They aren’t in a position to allow for any significant “betrayals” in government. This is a high risk point for them and it’s no surprise they Choco is shitting it as he know it. A huge chunk who voted for them this time would have voted for FF in 2007 and Labour in 2011, that’s not a stable electoral mountain.

@ChairmanDan please do the same for the 1600s, you dinosaur.

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That’s completely and utterly irrelevant to what Sinn Fein are and how they operate in terms of style.

One of these dick heads that wants horse racing banned too I believe. He got himself in a tight mess over the fishing lake in kildimo too and was lucky it was kept quiet during his election campaign.

@Copper_pipe say it ain’t so!!

You said this;

“ FF used to have it back in the Haughey days, not now. Haughey era FF is the best Irish comparison for how SF will shore up support”

You are talking about populism and nationalism. Haughey “shored” up support from 24%. The FF he started with had 50% and actually declined under him.

It’s just a big difference and SF will not make the really big jump (in today’s context) until they are 35%. They need to grow and move to a more stable electorate. It is just totally different to what Charlie Haughey had to do and different in style as well. You can’t govern like Charlie Haughey with SF numbers.

In ROD we trust …

We’re talking about how populism and nationalism means support for a party will be sticky and not fall away. FF’s support was sticky under Haughey, it was very sticky, it never fell below 44%, and there was a cult like devotion to him. And Sinn Fein have all that in spades and all the tools to ensure they maintain a broadly similar level of support to what they have now, at minimum.

The point is that the populist, nationalist playbook which Haughey used is the sort of modus operandi that will likely prevent a Labour like fall for Sinn Fein, even in the event that a government they were involved in did not perform well.