Group B Qualification Permutations per Braz

1

Taken from Braz’s post elsewhere but worth summarising in its own thread.

Assuming both us and Russia beat Andorra, and Slovakia and Armenia beat FYROM then (I think) if:

We beat Armenia and Slovakia beat Russia:
We win the group, Slovakia finish second.

We beat Armenia and Slovakia draw with Russia:
Russia win the group, we finish second.

We beat Armenia and Slovakia lose to Russia:
Russia win the group, we finish second.

We draw with Armenia and Slovakia beat Russia:
Slovakia win the group, Russia finish second.

We draw with Armenia and Slovakia draw with Russia:
Russia win the group, we finish second.

We draw with Armenia and Slovakia lose to Russia:
Russia win the group, we finish second.

We lose to Armenia and Slovakia beat Russia:
Armenia win the group, Slovakia finish second.

We lose to Armenia and Slovakia draw with Russia:
Russia win the group, Armenia finish second.

We lose to Armenia and Slovakia lose to Russia:
Russia win the group, Armenia finish second.

2

Good stuff out of Braz. So from the nine possible scenarios we finish 2nd in four and we finish 1st in one. What do people think is the most likely outcome?

3

Two draws I reckon.

Slovakia are muck and may slip up against Macedonia away too

4

We beat Armenia and Russia beat Slovakia. As KIB Man says, Slovakia could stumble against FYROM as well.

So we finish second and let the cards fall where they may.

5

2nd place teams possibly; (with fifa ranking)
Turkey 24, Serbia 29, Bosnia 39, Sweden 18, Greece 14, Montenegro 19, Denmark 21, czech R 42, plus our group (Ireland 31)

2 hosts + 9 group winners + best 2nd qualify and leave 4 playoffs. (btw it will be 24 teams for 2016)

if UEFA use the rankings stunt like last time, we could play Sweden, Montenegro or Denmark.

6

What about Greece too?

Turkey and Serbia are the two teams I’d like to avoid there.

What’s our record like against Scandanavian teams in competitive matches?

7

Iceland aside I don’t think we have been drawn with them that often, not in recent times anyway. think we had Denmark in our group for USA 1994 and pipped them for second thanks to Alan McLoughlin’s late goal in Belfast

8

Norway in the 94 WC is the other meeting I can recall.

9

Yes indeed, a dour affair. Staunton got convincing wins over both Denmark and Sweden in friendlies in recent times while Norway beat us late last year but you couldn’t place any stock in those

10

SRFC honked Partizan

We would honk Serbia

11

Brian Kerrs first home match was a dour enough 1-0 win against Norway I think. Duff got the winner.

Wasn’t it a Scandanavian team where the fans were booing the wrong player for being a hun? Denmark maybe?

12

Yes, Denmark, Lovenkrands was the intended target but I don’t know who it was that was getting it.

13

Greece top-ranked and Bosnia or Czech below us would play them

14

Was Kerr’s first game not an away win over Scotland in a friendly.

I remember the Denmark match alright, they booed a lad who they thought was Lovenkrands but it wasn’t him and didn’t even look like him. Think we also beat Denmark or sweden the easter before the 2002 WC in a friendly, Clinton Morrison was amongst the scorers that night

15

Kerrs first home match chewy

16

I believe the UEFA National Team Co-efficient is the relevant one for the play offs, which are indeed seeded.

Table of coefficients here, latest I could find on the UEFA website
http://www.uefa.com/…71_DOWNLOAD.pdf

trying to guess the likely results with 2 games left to play in most groups, I reckon we’ll be looking at something along these lines
Seeds -
Greece, Denmark, Serbia and Czechs

Plucky Minnows -
Turkey, Ireland, Bosnia and Montenegro

I’m assuming the swedes beat the danes to the automatic runner up spot, based on this table
http://en.wikipedia…nd-placed_teams

Health warning: UEFA rankings are from August 15th, so could be a degree of variation there.

Brief synopsis for the hard of reading: Turkey are our main rivals for a place in the seeded pot.[list]
[]Better to be seeded than not (obviously) based on likely opponents.
[]Best draw would be Bosnia or Montenegro?
[*]Serbia or Turkey means nightmarish away games.
[/list]
I await the opinion of the more informed posters as to who would be the ideal opponent.

Edited for updated rankings - switched Ireland and Serbia

17

I’d rather draw any of the top seeds than Serbia and Turkey.

18

just changed it there Mr T, provisional rankings mean we’d be in the minnows pot along with the turks (should spare rocko making a difficult decision) and the serbs are now seeded

19

Peter Madsen was the unfairly vilified chap’s name.

20

Did we beat Denmark away fairly comfortably in a friendly under Stan?

I also have a vague memory of us playing a friendly away to Norway in pissing rain not so long ago and Stephen Reid playing excellently - it might actually have been near the start of Trap’s reign.