Iâm not sure Matty - I would have thought theyâd be fairly similar in broad appeal with the caveat that large chunks of electorate would not go for either. Thatâs similar to large chunks of the electorate being appalled by Gerry Adams though and prob par for the course in most political parties.
I would imagine that both would be more appealing than Enda Kenny in any case.
I would have thought the centre is pretty full at the moment. Even looking at FGâs last manifesto itâs hardly the bastion of right-wing dogma that the beardy union types would suggest. Lots of increases in public spending, reductions in USC with limits on benefits to high-earners etc.
30% of the vote at the last election went to parties which trade under âleft-wingâ banners. This is increasing election on election.
Of that grouping, it was Labour, tainted by their association with FG, which lost out.
AA/PBP/Solidarity on the other hand made solid gains.
In 2016, FF/FGâs vote was under 50% for the first time ever.
And of those two, it was FF, which turned leftwards in policy terms compared to what they previously were, which benefitted, not FG.
DeValera certainly had enough issues to suggest a touch of the j edgar.
Indeed.
After almost 8 years of recession and austerity and with multiple âpromise all, someone else will payâ parties under the âleft wing bannerâ thatâs as far as it got. Sure if youâre happy with that then fair play.
Iâd say thereâs a pretty health chance that FF/FG will be back over 50% next election. Iâm no FF fan but itâs clear they are on the bounce-back and I think either new FG leader will do better than Kenny or at worst will hold at current levels.
Sure itâs already clear that SF are trying to figure out how they head toward FF - ground rather than their hard left beginnings to show any level of increased traction.
The idea that Ireland is right wing 
Ireland has one of the most progressive tax systems in the OECD.
Fine Gael are a centre right party at best. The consistent bs in this country on being right wing is nauseating. We are a tax and spend country.
FF are on the bounce back because of two things - tradition and by claiming to be appealing to social democracy.
Fine Gael might cement their core vote with Varadkar, but theyâll alienate their soft vote and deliver it straight into FFs hands.
Good luck with that.
Every country in the world is a âtax and spendâ country.
Thatâs kind of how government works.
Thatâs not disliked. Thatâs simply going to the wider population and saying who do you prefer out of the two?
Despite the fact that Varadkar has been portrayed as Maggie Thatcher for Ireland over 40% favour him. It isnât a case of 80/20 in preference. And that doesnât mean âdislikeâ either. Varadkar needs to get FG above 30% to be likely assured of being the biggest party. Thatâs 30% of acrual voters.
Here you are again comparing the U.K. Again though you ignore that Labour have had to run to the centre t he electable there. Here you are delighted that Labour are only 5 points behind the Tories after a dreadful campaign. I mean ffs.
America home of the brave are spend and borrow to be fair
I think FF are not the bounce because of tradition as you pointed out but because theyâre regressing to âweâve got something for everyoneâ version of social democracy.
Iâm pretty happy with the idea of either Varadkar or Coveney compared to Kenny. Interesting that you think FGâs soft vote would go to FF if it went. If thatâs the case and youâre suggesting that FF will also gain then where are the âLeft Wing Bannerâ gains coming from?
Incorrect.
Plenty of countries give back surpluses to their citizenry via decreased taxes or holding onto them.
The statistics in Ireland show that Governments here are far more likely to spend them.
Give that itâs a poll of a representative cross section of voters, itâs likely that a majority of those will dislike Fine Gael.
Coveney is quite clearly less disliked by the majority.
If you want to disregard that, by all means do so.
Again, youâre disregarding fact. Labour are at 38% in the polls with a genuine left-wing manifesto.
Please name me one country in the world that doesnât tax and doesnât spend.
The poll says who do you prefer? It doesnât say dislike.
Letâs start of.
Sinn FĂŠin and the hard left make up about 30% of the vote. Iâd say loads of them prefer Leo to Simon. 
Then you have the champagne socialists. They arenât supporting the guy who threatens people committing welfare fraud and making noises against social programmes.
Leo Varadkar is not trying win a Presidency. He is trying to motivate enough voters to come out to make sure Fine Gael remains the largest party in the DĂĄil. He is never going to win with those voters, so what?
Kenny was never a particularly popular leader and got the most seats twice.
If you donât want to deal with the actual point, so be it.
There have been one occasion where an Irish Finance Minister put the brakes on spending during a period of growth. He was sacked the next year.
Anyway, Iâm off to enjoy the sun, if you have an actual point you might try and make it.
If you include federal and state taxes, the marginal tax rate in the US is much higher than in Ireland, >50% in CA for example.
On the lower end of the scale, there are 10% and 15% bands, unlike 20% in Ireland, and for a married couple with no kids the first ~20K is exempt from tax.
There is a significant floating vote that isnât really ideological and which doesnât really follow politics, probably a majority of voters.
FG saw a significant loss of its soft vote to FF last time. But thereâs plenty more of that left to lose. FF got 41.6% in 2007, after all. They wonât get all of that back but they only need a small percentage more to overtake FG again.
Tradition is absolutely a factor in that. If youâve voted FF before thereâs always a chance youâll go back.
The left-wing generally makes small gains at every election and I donât see that changing at the next one. Sinn Fein have several obvious target seats where a very small shift will see them over the line - Cavan-Monaghan, Meath East, Galway West, Wexford, Longford-Westmeath, Dublin West, as well as the second seat in Donegal.
The entry of new voters and the death of older ones at every election generally favours the left more than FF/FG. Each successive election is a small part of a long-running realignment of Irish politics.
