On those numbers you could conceivably just about cobble together a FF/SF/Labour/Soc Dem minority government, but FG/FF and FG/SF would be much more comfortable for numbers.
The latter two combinations will require something unprecented to happen in terms of negotiations. Neither FF or SF will want to be junior coalition partners to FG and will do everything in their power to avoid it.
SF will want to stay out of government with anybody and FF’s long term recovery will probably depend on staying away from being a junior coalition partner.
But I don’t see FG and Labour having the numbers to form another government.
I think Emmet O’Brien (Ind) could make a serious run for one of those seats.
He topped the poll in the council elections, getting more first preference votes than Tom Neville the FG candidate ( also running in the GE).
He will have a lot of work to do though to gather votes outside of West Limerick.
Key for Labour is to get their candidates ahead of the FG straggler in each constituency. There’s a bucketload of constituencies where you’ll have a government seat between FG and Labour but not so clear who wins it. On a sub-10% vote share it’s too much of an ask for Labour to be ahead in most cases. Also even in cases where they outpoll the far left candidates they’re not likely to get any sort of transfers this time to take them past FG. Predicting Labour is a little trickier than FF or FG though with their vote being less evenly split around the country but it does look like they’re in for the mother and father of all hidings.
You are expecting FF to pick up 5 seats in Dublin. They will pick up one max - Hanafin, on a good day 2 but on a bad day none.
They haven’t a hope in hell of picking up a seat in Waterford. That will split West County - Deasy FG. East county Coffey FG. City Cullinane SF and Halligan Ind.
That’s just getting started on it.
You seem fierce interested in my personal life, I’ve no idea why.
Re Dublin Bay North, results for Sinn Fein in the relevant wards in the 2014 Local Elections would strongly indicate there’s a seat there for them. Obviously the dynamics in a General Election are different and the decision to run two candidates is a strange one, but Labour’s results in the same elections were disastrous.
O’Riordain will be relying on FG and Terence Flanagan’s transfers as I expect a collapse in his personal vote. However Flanagan could well be above him.
A massive swing away from Labour in this area has happened before. The old Dublin North Central constituency makes up a large part of Dublin Bay North. In 1992 Labour’s Derek McDowell got 23.1% of the the vote but saw that collapse to 6.6% in 1997. Given that there is likely to be an even bigger national swing away from Labour this time than in 1997, things look bleak for O’Riordain.
O’Brien has a fine chance of getting in alright. He’s intelligent and fairly likeable - straight away that sets him apart from most of the rest.
O’Donovan, Patrick and Collins, Niall will both get in. I think Tom Neville will struggle to hold the family seat. Going off abroad and high tailing it back home in time for a shot at the Dail has irked a lot of the local hardcore FG vote. Dan asking lifelong supporters for a contribution to cover the expense of his election party (for food etc) in 2011 annoyed a lot of people too.
O’Brien will get a lot of disillusioned FF votes, especially at how the local members were basically bullied by HQ a few years back. His GAA background will also stand to him.
Made a few quid on a couple of the constituencies at the last election. Adds a bit of craic to Election Day panned out on the couch when you are waiting on the 11th count from Dublin North Central to pick up a few pound.
“This comes with a health warning” as they announce an early exit poll is my favourite Election Day quote.
That and some roaster roaring “the people have spoken” as some fellow roasters hoist him up on their shoulders at the count centre upon election.
FF are at 24%, just 5% behind FG in the latest opinion poll.
Even with a lower share of the vote in Dublin, 5 seats is well doable for them.
Hanafin will get in.
With Fingal being a 5 seater they should have enough to pick up one there in an area which is a traditional heartland for them in any event.
Sean Haughey will get a big personal vote in Dublin Bay North. He’ll have a shout of the final seat although vote splitting between himself and Deirdre Heney and Averil Power could undo him.
John Curran was one of their better performers in a wipeout in 2011 and has a very good chance in Dublin Mid-West, given that three of the sitting TDs are either likely to lose their seats or are not standing again.
Dublin South West is another 5 seater and I find it difficult to see FF not picking up a seat in any 5 seater constituency.
Not really @Sidney. Labour have usually polled at 2/3 times their national vote in that constituency. There are so many runners in Dublin Bay North that at least two candidates will be elected without a quota. I Can see him having enough to be one of those two.
I’d also disagree with your FF analysis in that contituency. Haughey has a complete glass ceiling and his core support won’t getm him elected. He is smelly for transfers too. Heneywill pick up a fair few old FF and will do better if she uses the old posters but will ultimately flounder in the storm of heavyweights/big noises that abound.
O’Riordain is from the Dublin North Central part of the new constituency.
In 1997 Labour’s national vote was 10.4%, but in Dublin North Central it was 6.6%. So in the previous election which saw a big surge away from Labour, the biggest swing in the country away from them came in that constituency. They polled way under what they got nationally.
The traditional Labour/left-wing vote in Dublin North East will likely move en bloc to Tommy Broughan and Sinn Fein and O’Riordain will find it tough to make headway in a new area given the national swing against Labour.
That Labour vote in Dublin North East was also a working class one. O’Riordain is seen as a middle class liberal and will find it difficult to connect with that.
The Limerick City poll will be very interesting, I reckon the first seat will go to Noonan obviously, Willie will get the 2nd and then a battle between Maurice, O’Donnell of FG and current education minister Jan O’Sullivan for the other two seats.
Hugely competitive constituency since they did way with the 5th seat. Maurice could well do it.
The way its looking. Your going to have fg and labour with a max of 65 seats between them. Id be getting on to Paddy Power and looking for odds on the next dail lasting max 18 months
