So are you mate.
Iād say had they won a few seats last time out, he would have possibly tried a coup. Donāt under-estimate Shorthall either. I wouldnāt call her a cunt but she certainly likes the power. Strikes me as a woman who doesnāt like compromise.
Heās too clever for that. Thatās why he wonāt join ff/FG.
I disagree. Looks like he had no idea what he was getting himself into which he obviously didnāt. Now it looks like heās throwing his toys out of the pram cos they only got 3 people elected and he canāt be arsed building a party. I think itās a bit mad cos people genuinely saw them as an alternative.
He risks irrelevance if he stays independent. The fact that he went to the bother of setting up a political party shows he has party and policy implementation aspirations rather than being merely another Mattie McGrath or Noel Grealish.
Itāll be tough for him now to go back to the grind of being an independent and youād have to imagine he has little future in any existing party if he leaves the one he was co-founder of after just 14 months.
Heās badly misjudged the whole thing really, which is a pity as he has ability and a contribution to make, even if Iām sure I wouldnāt agree with all of his economic views (even if we donāt know what they really are , Iām not even sure he knows himself).
He could go to Europe as has been suggested here, but being an MEP is ultimately even more pointless than being an independent TD and few get to be Pat Cox.
he recognises he has probably 3 options
- Get out of politics.
- Stay an independent and be seen as a credible opposition politician but never have a lot of influence.
- Join a big party or cosy up to a big party and try to become a minister and implement change.
Iād agree with most of this except for the future in another party. Ff and fg will bend over backwards to get him involved because of his public credibility. I think the public would forgive him quicker at that than if he stayed a mouthy independant.
Given the George Lee debacle, as well as Peter Mathews whose time in the party didnāt work out much better, I think both Donnelly and Fine Gael would be very wary of each other. While Donnelly has been in politics for five years, his popularity is similar to Leeās in that it mainly stems from how he comes across in the media, and him leaving the Social Democrats so soon evokes obvious parallels between the two.
FFG donāt have a history of taking in established outsiders who go on to have a successful career in either party. Perhaps Iām missing somebody obvious, but off the top of my head, Martin Cullen is the only one I think of, and he was previously in FF before he was in the PDs.
Youād expect there to be considerable dissent amongst existing members of FFG if he joined, in the same way which happened with Lee.
In terms of FG, they already have two TDs in Wicklow and would have no hope of getting three elected next time. FF have only one, but Donnellyās problem is that he was elected on a specific platform of opposition to FFG, particularly FF. The optics of it wouldnāt be good should he join one of them - heād then look like a political opportunist who had sold out, and that tends not to play well with voters.
Lucinda Creightonās demise should be another warning signal for him in terms of how people who are perceived by the public as opportunists tend to get on.
Yes and no. While they have occasions where they show some reserve, think back on their many many examples of trying to get anyone with a bit of profile to run. Kenny Egan, Eamonn Coughlan , any any fucking GAA player who can do his own tie is welcome. Itās only a couple of years since FF were openly touting for neww candidates cos they were poison. They even took the chairman of the Labour party ffssake. Basically, if they think itās right, anything goes.
Indeed, and Keaveney was perceived as exactly the sort of opportunist I was talking about and lost his seat.
I would categorise the likes of Egan, Coghlan, as well as Shane Curran, Tony Dempsey, Graham Geraghty, John OāMahony, Jimmy Deenihan etc. much differently to what Donnelly would be if he switched to one of FFG.
These were either badly judged appeals to ācelebrityā or appeals to base parochialism by picking local GAA figures, usually both. Picking a local GAA figure to run is the oldest trick in the book in 26 county politics. None of the aforementioned were ever considered to be anything other than back bench fodder.
Where the Lee selection, and Mathews also to an extent, differed was that they were known for (or at least perceived to have) genuine expertise in economic/financial fields and were expected to, or at least would have hoped to become, influential figures in terms of policy.
Donnelly if he switched to one of FFG would clearly be much more similar to the Lee/Mathews template with similarities also to Creighton and Keaveney. Killian Forde, while never a TD, is another example Donnelly should have taken note of. Averil Power too.
Short-term impetuosity rarely works out well in politics.
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He made a mistake, heād be in government now if he hadnāt thrown in his lot with them. He was scared of losing his seat.
Heād be a fool if heād gone into government
Why. He could be a minister
Whatās the real reason Donnelly left? Whatās the grapevine saying?
Nah. Donnelly is a man for the good times. And I dont mean that as an insult to him. Donnelly is a good man to have when government are running surpluses. He has right wing fiscal tendencies but is more left wing when it comes to social issues. Weāreally still in the red here. He needs to have leverage and thatās not happening yet.
Again yes and no. Like I said I think itās a bad move but one he had to make because heās nowhere near these guys idealistically.
But the shorter move is often a winner too. Look at Denis naught on sitting at the cabinet table cos he left fg or roisin shortall topping the poll after leaving labour. Obviously they left a deeply unpopular government but so did Keaveney.
Clarence Daly shafted Joe Higgins and the socialists to ride a wexican and it worked out fine for her.
Personally, Iād gone off Donnelly a bit because they could have strolled into government and immediately influenced policy but chose not to. And cos Iām suspicious of what he may be keeping in that flip top egg head of his.
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Mental breakdown. 5b job.
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The establishment party member going independent is a proven vote-winning technique. Itās more often than not just as opportunist as anybody making the opposite journey, but can be spun much more easily as ācourageousā and āprincipledā to the advantage of the person in question - usually in rural areas, although there are obviously exceptions.
Moves between political parties or by independents into political parties are harder to spin, and can never be spun as ācourageousā or āprincipledā.
Irish politics is largely tribal and when somebody moves between parties or into a party, they alienate their existing vote and are generally not particularly successful at winning over the existing vote of the party they move to.
Donnelly has been very good at portraying himself in the media as a straight up, honest broker type but he would find it very hard to keep that up if he joined FFG, having stood specifically on a platform against them.
He relies on a mainly urban or semi-urban floating vote in coastal Wicklow and that vote is fickle - as soon as the media game starts going against you it can desert you very quickly.
I see Rte are now picking up on the nama-charity-tax dodge (at best) scam, a mere few weeks after it was discussed on here.
Spies everywhere.
Apparently this was the beginning of the issues. Reports this morning say Donnelly had wanted to try and form a government with FG but the others over ruled him. Could be a bit of spin from the Donnelly side too.