Ireland politics (Part 2)

Things
4613

Agreed on that.

Our whole economy is based on this.

Save enough money on deposits to get a deposit on a house. When you are far down the road on that sage again to move house or to buy a second house.

Our investments and savings culture is based around bank deposits and property (which made us a disaster at the times of the crash). And our tax system (rates and processes) and public policy and political policy are all geared towards funnelling money into deposits and then property. But that ultimately ends up rewarding those who can buy more than one house and punishing those who are for to afford one.

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4614

There should be CGT on sale of homes. It’s a gain. It should be taxed.

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4615

but but but, my bigger house and island, i wont be able to afford them if i pay tax

4616
  1. That isn’t true. They take rent paid into account. That’s a complete myth.

Self employed people is a different story, it isn’t teachers like you claimed.

Funds do pay tax, that’s another myth.

  1. Varadkar makes statements. Saying that people borrow money for deposits is true, but of course stupid.

It’s really irrelevant to policy.

  1. I haven’t decided that but you have made statements that’s the system is rigged.

Those measures were brought in in an attempt to he renter friendly. A direct result of those measures are those landlords leaving the market and the new pipeline of builds seizing up in recent months. “Funds” ie our pensions will not develop property in a place with eviction bans.

  1. Current policies are flawed in that they too often are reactive to sensationalist headlines ie the eviction bans

Policies put in place a few years ago to boost supply were working with it ramping up. Much more could be done on it but all of this ideological stuff and “system is rigged” stuff is emotive nonsense.

4617

In terms of the system being “rigged”, what the system does do is reward incumbents. Even well meaning regulations end up doing that, eg RPZs.

There’s no party seriously looking at challenging that (although O’Brien’s recent reforms are a decent start) as it is in none of their political interests.

4618

Also tax individualisation

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4619

But from around 1999 on, housing construction boomed, did it not? So increased supply was coming on stream all the time.

What were these policy interventions? I remember hearing about the Bacon report but I’m fucked if I remember the details.

Rent was affordable up to, I don’t know, maybe 10 years ago? Then it seemed to skyrocket.

Surely the obvious conclusion is that when the crash happened, construction stopped, but population kept increasing. But the market could not provide the solutions. The state refused to.

4620

A few random observations on housing.

There is probably enough housing stock in the country for the population. Much of it is in the wrong place (outside Dublin) and in the wrong hands (elderly people should be incentivised to trade down and free up their 3/4/5 bed houses for families).

Much of the increased cost of building a house is down to higher standards. 50 years ago a new build in an estate had single glazed windows, no insulation, no fitted kitchen, no Island, no fitted wardrobes and no solar panels. These extras cost a lot of money.

Ireland is a desirable place to live. It wasn’t fifty years ago. We have a lot of inward migration and people born here generally want to stay here. Life expectancy is the highest in Europe, we have a demographic bubble.

It is only a decade since we had ghost estates. Some of them in quite desirable locations. There was an estate there at Fingal cemetery where the tarpaulins were flapping in the wind until 2015. The CSO released a (subsequently discredited) statistic in 2011 that there were 300,000 empty homes in the State. Who would commit capital to building when there were already so many empty homes in the state.

There are only two Irish banks and they can’t and won’t commit large parts of their loan books to property again because of what happened the last time they did. So if money is needed to build house it will have to come from abroad. Money won’t be committed to Irish property from abroad unless it is guaranteed to make a profit. You can call them vultures all you want but unless these financiers are getting a return on their money why would they come to Ireland. Moreover the native Irish developer class got their balls handed to them after the crash and only a few are still in the game.

The traditional builder lad throwing up two or three houses here and there is gone. With the standards gone up he can’t make it pay.

Young fellas don’t want to be tradesmen any more. There’s much easier ways to make a living and any young lad with his head screwed on would prefer to be doing a college course somewhere.

The State lost the ability to deliver quality housing in the 50s. Most of what it delivered after was a disaster and it hasn’t the infrastructure or skills to build any more. Do we really want the housing equivalent of the HSE?

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4621

Was that not almost a deliberate choice though?

I think the rest of your post is well observed.

4622

That all sounds on the money but what is the solution though. I don’t think those of us over a certain age who own our own house realise properly what an unmitigated disaster the whole thing is for the younger generation. Now maybe the solution is long term renting and they can never own their own homes but I would imagine countries that have that culture are set up for it in terms of effective rent controls and long term leases etc. We’re neither one or the other.
Ridiculously simplistic solution alert but apart from not trusting the public sector to get it done could the government build a shit load of houses and sell them/rent them to people at absolute cost price? ie making no profit. This would then distort the market and bring prices and rents down elsewhere. Do a big raffle for the houses like they used do in the mansion House for council houses.

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4623

Jaysus I wouldn’t fancy being someone who is caught up in this nightmare.

4624

They were some way on the solution;

  • national zoning and policy: remove local elements from the equation. They claim it is “democracy” but it is anything but, everywhere has locals with vested interests. The interests not catered for are people who actually need housing.

National policy tried this but local NIMBYs ratcheted it up a degree by abusing the court system.

  • heavily tax inheritances on homes. Do not allow for delays on probate- too many houses are sitting idle for an age

  • use our advantage that we are a country that was too poor to consider apartments for decades. Get the right people in the right homes. Build loads of 1 beds (lots of that been done). Incentivise the elderly to leave their big nests into those apartments

  • reduce standards on garden sizes etc., most people don’t care about them

  • State’s role: big ticket infrastructure projects that support density, funding and visa programmes to bring in skilled labour

4625

There categorically isn’t.

This isn’t correct either.

4626

Ok glas.

4627

We have far fewer units per head of population than the EU average. There are loads of examples of the state building good housing, as well as bad. I should think a lot has been learned from the bad developments, there’s no reason the state shouldn’t be building or or can’t build loads of good quality housing.

4628

Landlords selling is a valid reason for eviction in terms of flying when it comes to the RTB.
A lot of these cases are private landlords upping the rent or wanting to above the agreed acceptable levels and when challenged by the tenant they say they are selling.
There’s a lot of greed and jealousy amongst landlords in rural Ireland that is going unreported. I know someone living in a shoebox with no heating being evicted cos the landlord wants 300 more per month as his buddy up the road is 900 for a one bed.

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4629

Keep em coming, shur it’s nearly spring


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4630

Whatsvthe alternative to people coming, send them back to warzones?

4631

If we stopped the chancers with no passports it would help a lot

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4632

Revealed: the ‘political’ motive to lift ban on evictions

Cabinet feared spike in homeless numbers during May 2024 voting

The Government feared an extension of the no-fault eviction ban would have seen a dramatic increase in homeless numbers close to the European and local elections next year, the Sunday Independent can reveal.

The political motivation behind the decision to end the ban this month — rather than in six to 12 months’ time — was considered at the highest levels of government.

The revelation is expected to heighten criticism of the decision, which Sinn FĂ©in housing spokesman Eoin Ó Broin today predicts will see 12,000 people without a home from next month.

Writing in the Sunday Independent, Mr Ó Broin says: “What these numbers make clear is that if the ban on evictions is not extended, we will have a homelessness crisis on a scale never before imagined.”

However, it can now be revealed that this very outcome at least partially motivated the Government to press ahead with ending the ban now, rather than closer to the elections next year.

Sinn FĂ©in wants to extend the ban until the end of this year, accompanied by an emergency package of measures to prevent people from becoming homeless after it is lifted.

However, the Sunday Independent understands this issue was considered at the highest levels of government and ruled out partly over concerns that when the eviction ban was ultimately lifted, a resultant spike in homelessness would coincide with the European and local elections in May next year.

It was felt a significant increase in homeless numbers would damage the prospects of the government parties in those elections.

A senior government source said of the eviction ban: “If it had been extended for a few months to September, as Labour wanted, or December, as Sinn FĂ©in wanted, it would have been extended again — and then would have to be lifted this time next year on the run into local and European elections or rolled on again.

“Remember, Rent Pressure Zones were temporary, but they’ve now been rolled over for six years.”

In this newspaper today, Mr Ó Broin says the ban on evictions must be extended and emergency measures put in place “to avoid what will otherwise be a very real human catastrophe come April”.

The Government is considering a range of tax measures to encourage landlords not to sell, or to sell to sitting tenants or local authorities with tenants in situ. Government sources also point to the intention to scale up the Land Development Agency to make it a “state developer and home builder”.

However, this weekend TDs around the country, particularly in larger urban areas, reported growing fear and anger among rental tenants.

Yesterday, one government TD said he had been approached by a HSE clerical worker, earning €38,000 a year, who faced the prospect of being made homeless next month.

“It’s bad out there, really bad, and only getting worse,” the TD said.

However, there is also a hardening of attitudes in government, particularly among Fine Gael TDs, many of whom believe introducing the eviction ban was a mistake in the first place.

A senior Fine Gael source said: “ Leo Varadkar consulted the parliamentary party about two or three weeks ago. It was three or four to one in favour of ending the ban at that meeting.

“Most thought it was a mistake to do it in the first place. Many thought it better to end it now rather than Christmas, as Sinn FĂ©in proposes, or run into the locals.

“Ending it was the right decision. There would have been twice as many people facing eviction if it were extended to winter or Christmas or next year some time.

“Governments have been too willing to adopt left-wing housing policies that — other than building loads of social housing — don’t work. We need some new initiatives to boost supply, incentivise landlords and help renters.”

Mr Ó Broin writes today: “Our emergency accommodation system will simply not be able to cope with even a fraction of those people who will lose their rental homes from April.

“This will force thousands of people into seeking refuge with family and friends. Many tenants will have no option but to overhold in their rental property.

“Others will be forced to sleep rough. Some families with children will be referred to garda stations for a safe place to sleep. The scale of the crisis that will unfold in four weeks’ time, if the eviction ban is allowed to end, is beyond what anyone imagined.”