Ireland politics (Part 3)

I largely agree with you. More needs to be done for housing everyone and there are a hape of vacant buildings in every town… it’s not gonna happen overnight tho.

FFG have had Census data, National Development Plans and other infrastructure announcements to make informed decisions and predictionss regarding population growth and still we are our hospitals, prisons and asylum accommodations are creaking at the seams or is at best a shitshow. They love proclaiming we are an “open economy” and how immigration is to be welcomed and encouraged but haven’t prepared for that.

Making immigration front and centre of news coverage and enflaming racial tensions is a handy cover all for their inability to future plan.

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Look mate. @Cheasty solved this about 30 mins ago. Fire a bunch of immigrants on a bus and drive them to limerick like a good fella

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There’s been vacant buildings and units over shops for years in towns and cities all over Ireland. I doubt that problem is ever going to be resolved because Mick and Paddy don’t want to live in those types of places

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Isnt that also a lot to do with our laws around property and ownership? A lot of those older buildings are half in dispute or the owner is unknown or doesn’t give a fuck

Ive often pondered that issue. My solution would be a council scheme (yep another one…) you had to apply for. Basically, the council would employ a permanent team to upgrade places like that where people couldnt afford to. Youd then repay the cost as rent up until it was paid, then the rights would revert to you. Cant see what could possibly go wrong…

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If there was money to be made from them you’d bet your life on them not being vacant

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You could see that meeting a real life trans person actually made some of them reconsider things a bit. Especially the Christian black fella. The casting was very good for it but the format is a bit all over the shop. You could tell Ben gripty gained a bit of respect for Izzy in it too she comes across very well. It’s definitely worth a watch for non cheastys

Very hard to see how anyone could argue with that. And you’ll soon find no one will be and it will be government policy.

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The tans have good laws in place to protect and keep buildings up to date and not to deface them like we do… historic building one day, the next it is a vape shop with a big neon front.

120k Ukrainians and other asylum seekers going up 5 or 6x would not have been in those plans. We have at least 175,000 more people than what could have been reasonably predicted 4 years ago.

You can criticise them for incentivising people to come here of course, but most people don’t seem to want to and want to focus on imaginary plans for this.

Even outside of emergency migration, the number of economic migrants has completely exceeded the forecasts of experts.

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Headbanger talk

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Good idea for a show,
one of of my best pals is a full on headbanger/conspiracy theorist, a casualty of Covid, but a great fella all the same

So have the numbers categorically gotten way bigger? You hear that but also hear it shouted down as misinformation too. What could they genuinely have done to slow it down or is it just that we are a rich country and people want to to come here?

It’s a good show you should watch it on the virgin player. The trans fella is a great advocate. Tells his story really well and just seems a genuine lad. There’s a male porn star on it too. Yer man from hardy bucks has 5 kids by 3 women! Kind of scuppers his champion of the conservatives credentials.
I vaguely remember the incident where the one got beaten up by the soldier and she is very outspoken on it.
When people actually talk face to face it’s so much harder to be absolute cunts like online.

Indeed, you can see the funny side as well.
Last year one of my mates got the taxi to stop and told another one to get out of the cab, he couldn’t be listening to him any more :rofl:

Yes.

When the FF/FG/Green Government took over in 2020, they got the ESRI to estimate housing need which includes population growth.

The “business as usual” case said Ireland’s population would reach *5.6m by 2040.

The CSO estimates our population was 5.46m in April of this year.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2025/

Bear in mind that Census 2022 put the population at 5.14m, we therefore grew by over 300,000 people in the space of 3 years.

What caused this? Net migration was close to 220,000 in those years.

Ukranian refugees are the single largest contributor.
You can look at those numbers yourself but suffice to say Ireland took in far more than most of Western Europe per head.

There’s an odd thing where on the Left they demand “plans” but also ignore the plans that were there, whilst also pretending that refugees don’t have any impact.

There’s the horse shoe thing going on with the far Right where they both lament the loss of Ireland’s youth, despite the fact that we are talking about a net loss of barely 10,000 over 3 years.

Also it should be pointed out when the ESRI made those estimates in 2020, they also said in a high side scenario that we’d have 6 million people by 2040, which was based on 30,000 net migrants a year. It’s unlikely the flows will sustain at the current levels but bear in mind that some estimates have our population at 5.6m. We could well be close to the high side population estimates 10 years before that.

Now you’d hope many Ukrainians can go home and also that we see a general moderation as our economy cools, but the experts on our population growth have got things consistently wrong for 3 decades, not withstanding the emergency nature of some of the recent migration.

For example, in the mid 2010s the CSO estimated the below;

Five years ago, the CSO adopted three migration scenarios. In each of the three, Ireland was expected to lose population each year to 2016 - by 19,000 a year in the most optimistic scenario and by 25,000 a year in the most pessimistic. After that, the three scenarios diverged - ranging from a loss of 5,000 persons a year to a gain of 30,000 as the average annual change from the 2020s through to the 2040s.

The net effect of all this was that Ireland’s population in the low-fertility medium-migration scenario would rise from 4.6m in 2011 to 5.6m by 2046.

We’re already at that 2046 central scenario, 21 years early. In the mid 2010s the above would have informed a lot of policy.

We need planning to have any hope of keeping up with infrastructure but I strong believe we need to bin population estimates for land zoning. Sure we’ll have instances of not enough schools but housing is the most fundamental need for people & pricking about trying to everything perfect in advance just doesn’t work.

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Also this is what the CSO estimated in 1995.

We had over 1 million more people than their high fertility scenario!

It’s all very well for people to demand plans…

So many things that the CSO could never have predicted back in 95,

I wonder were other nations CSO’s more accurate?

The argument is still heard that we are the most underpopulated country in Europe and it’s no issue at all. Some amount of gaslighting on both sides and very few easily verifiable facts and statistics.

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