Two in Jim’s constituency of North Antrim and one each in:
East Antrim
South Antrim
Lagan Valley
Strangford
East Derry
Fermanagh South Tyrone
Outside of Jim’s constituency they were generally averaging about 3% where they ran candidates. I can certainly see them getting that up to 5-6% in those areas and possibly more. It will fracture the unionist vote though and makes transfers that little bit more erratic and this coupled with the growth of Alliance will end up squeezing the DUP on their last seat.
From looking at it I think I will give them a live chance in East Antrim at winning a seat and outside chances in Lagan Valley, Strangford and South Antrim.
Agree with a lot of that but I draw slightly different conclusions. FST being UUP territory & switching to DUP with Foster but remember that in Westminster elections the agreed candidate would have been UUP so still very UUP. But Donaldson is seen as UUPish too. Him and Foster are allies so Foster’s endorsement will count. What thye might lose is the hardline DUP vote!
Yes Jeffrey does come across as aloof and smugly superior but the odd thing is that as far as I know he’s the least well educated of them. Don’t think he has a 3rd level qualification. Not entirely sure but I think he left school and pretty much went straight into full time UDR. He should in fact be closer to the (non)-working class, loyalist scum.
You see that’s what worries me. When the dopes get consumed with rage the safety valve is usually some catholic going about his everyday business.
Generally yes but they no longer have British handlers and Special Branch able to step in and stop them from getting a 20 year stretch.
When loyalists went on hunger strike they were hiding Mars bars under their pillows, they run on the idea of trying to bully and intimidate people into their ideology but I don’t think many of them are actually willing to give anything up for it.
As for Donaldson, he’s a Down man though. It really depends on how ambitious Beattie is, would he get someone like Tom Elliot back on the ticket and try and run two UUP candidates there. Will Unionism only run the two candidates in FST next time out? Is either party runs two it could potentially put a seat in jeopardy that shouldn’t be.
There would be a lot of disquiet in Unionism at local level in FST on how Foster was treated.
Have alliance any chance in the upcoming Lagan Valley by election? Should taigs vote tactically it must be a possibility? Butler has already confirmed he’ll run as an UUP candidate so any pact with Dup isn’t on cards. There would have to be a perfect split almost to deny dup but SF/SDLP shouldn’t entertain running anyone imo
SF and SDLP should opt out as neither have a hope in hell. The SDLP might contest it to stay relevant as they are getting ever more squeezed by the Alliance and it wouldn’t be the first time SDLP have ran a candidate who didn’t have a realistic chance that has given the unionists a seat.
That’s very true but as I said that should be assuaged by Donaldson sticking it to Poots.
Beattie might go for it. He has sounded like he’s trying to put distance between the UUP & DUP. I think that’s an effort to pull voters back from Alliance and mark the UUP out as separate.
Oh they’ll still have their handlers protecting their drug dealing and extortion providing they give up some low level minions. Killin taigs has always been a Brit strategy as well to keep them pesky fenians in their place.
Presumably the farmers vote is important in FST? How the farmers vote in any upcoming election will be very interesting, they recognise the importance of the NIP and what benefits it can deliver for them. These are votes that would previously have gone to the DUP, where will they go this time though?
Unionism has always been extremely successful at mobilising their voting base in FST. It’s nearly always been full steam behind one of the DUP or the UUP. The disquiet in the DUP, the seeping of votes to the TUV/UUP, the changing demographics and Alliance picking up a lot of the first time voters are creating the perfect storm here.
The fact is though, what’s the difference between what the DUP/TUV/UUP are offering in reality?
Definitely. But MI5 and the various other Brit army Int units are not the Brit govt. They’ll operate just for the sake of it. And we’ll always have whatever the RUC Special Branch are now called.
Not forgetting the agent in place at the head of the Guards
There is no difference at all really, other than how closely they associate themselves with those threatening violence. What the degenerates in Coleraine, Larne and Newtownards want though is very different to what their core voters in the rural areas want. The UK trade deal with Australia has the potential to destroy the UK agri sector, and the NI farmers now see the NIP as all that is standing between them and that destruction. There are a lot of votes in rural areas and the only party it seems they could logically vote for is Alliance.
Just heard Reg Empty making an argument for the continued existence of norn iron…the republic is doing very well and our problems would destabilise it.
He would but that doesn’t mean he’s not a raging bigot. Any sort of dilution of the most backward form of sectarian and racist bigotry in unionism is deemed a moderate.
It’s about that time that people cottoned on and called unionism out for what it is rather than trying to legitimise their bigotry as justified concerns.
Jim, Doug, Trimble’s right hand man david Campbell etc can go along to loyalist events with thugs in balaclavas, uvf banners etc and no one blinks an eye. That blade from newtownards talking about fear, mayhem and death…she wasn’t some spide from a loyalist estate. She was a nice respectable middle class unionist steeped in bigotry and hatred.
