It would take a lot to keep him out but Hayes isn’t safe yet. Smith will transfer to Murphy in huge numbers you’d imagine which puts him way up. Then you have Childers who will pick up some of their votes and Ryan will be picking up many of Costello’s. Fitzpatrick has done well on first preference but she will pick up hardly anything on transfers.
Would you give Lyn Boylan one? (not first preferences ballot wise) 
Boylan obviously home and hosed. Ryan a near certainty and will probably finish 2nd. Hayes has a battle on his hands for last seat. Its between him and a leftie for the last seat, to be decided on FF transfers.
Forgot about Fitzpatrick’s transfers. God only knows where they’ll go.
The real danger for Hayes is if Neasa gets ahead of Murphy. Be interesting to see how Smyth transfers to Murphy. Lot of infighting in the hard left camp there.
Agreed - but many of those who voted for them won’t be that pushed by the in-fighting or even aware of it.
Still think on balance, Hayes will scape home. One thing these elections have shown up is finally a class divide emerging in voting patterns. There’ll be enough middle class transfers from Fitzpatrick to Hayes to see him home.
What about the oft-touted “cultural differences” between Fianna Gael and Fine Fail?
Smyth will transfer heavily to him still I’m sure. Richard Boyd Barrett was on six one earlier and seemed to suggest that left would seek to work closer together. He was tweeting in favour of Smyth and Murphy interestingly enough. @Rocko used to constantly screen phone calls from Socialist Party. Would he be more receptive to PBP I wonder?
Tullamore electoral area votes in 4 out of 4 FF candidates from 7 seats.
Danny Owens scraped in by 4 votes. There will be a recount tomorrow.
SF topped poll in 2 of 3 electoral areas in Offaly so you’d expect them to push mighty hard for a seat in new Offaly 3 seat constituency in next general election.
What are all these Sinn Fein Councillors, TD’s & MEP’s going to do differently to what’s been before them?
Get rid of fuckin water charges and property taxes maybe? the promise of it is enough for my vote.
Any chance of some coverage of anywhere outside of Dublin??
In terms of the councillors, postboxes will be painted a darker shade of green and the traffic lights will be permanently set to green. Stop signs will also be repainted green.
The other European counts are suspended for the night.
How can the Dublin count be carried out so quickly while they haven’t managed even first counts in the other two constituencies?
The other constituencies have shut up shop for the night and will be announcing their results tomorrow. Dublin is the story at the moment.
Looks to me like Costello’s transfers will push Hayes and Ryan over the line. Delighted that Fitzpatrick boot has missed out.
Boylan elected.
That’s not a great transfer for Murphy. Probably suits Childers though.
Childers ahead of Murphy is not good for Hayes.