Right a bit of research on this weekend’s matches.
4 recommendations below - might be a bit much putting all 4 together but there’s some value there.
Falkirk v Motherwell… Motherwell at 8/5
During the week I recommended backing Motherwell away to Aberdeen at 9/5, they drew. On Saturday they travel to Falkirk and PP are offering 8/5. The league table suggests a parity between Aberdeen and Falkirk and the stats will tell you they’re much the same sort of team. The reality is Aberdeen are a more resilient and experienced team than Falkirk and both of them are playing well below the level Motherwell are achieving.
Motherwell have 1 point from their last 2 games but they’ll have been buoyed by the late equaliser at Pittodrie. Not one to put the mortgage on but at 8/5 it’s a decent shout.
Cottbus v VFB Stuttgart… Stuttgart at 5/4
Stuttgart have really struggled badly for form all season - not that they haven’t picked up results but they’ve had patches of 4 or 5 games when they’ve looked like CL spot contenders and runs of games when they’ve been dire.
An unimpressive but important away win at Duisburg a couple of weeks ago looks to have kick-started their post winter break campaign. Last week they played very well in winning their derby against Karlsruhe 3-1 and crucially Mario Gomez has only been fined 8000 Euro and not suspended as a result of his post match interview (he called Maik Franz an arsehole on German tv). Anyone who saw a half-fit Gomez play for Germany at Croke Park might not think much of him but he’s a smashing player and Stuttgart’s good spells this year have generally coincided with Gomez being in the team. He has scored 4 goals in 4 games since the winter break and looked on fire last week.
Cottbus managed a draw at Nurnberg last week, a reflection on Nurnberg’s pitiful league form more than anything. They’re nearly as bad at home (11 points from 33) as they are away (6 from 30) and a price above evens for Stuttgart is a steal.
Hannover 96 v Nurnberg… Hannover at evens
Speaking of Nurnberg, they’re off to Hannover on Saturday. Hannover are a mid-table side with 4 wins and 4 losses at home and 4 wins and 4 losses away from home. To be honest they’re not in fantastic form with 2 draws and 2 losses since the resumption of the Bundesliga but one of those points was in Hamburg and they lost to Bayern as expected. The other loss was at Bochum who are very reliant on their home form. They’re very average but sometimes average is good enough.
Quite how Nurnberg nearly beat Benfica in the UEFA Cup is a mystery. They’d a cracking season last year but they’ve been shocking all year this time around and their away form in particular is appalling - 5 points from 11 matches - as bad as anyone else in the league. Anyway they were 2 goals up against Benfica and lost 2 in injury time in the second leg and that’s been the story of their season. Evens to get beaten is fine for me.
Hibernian v Celtic… Celtic at 8/13
Hibs are a bit of a bogey team for Celtic this year. They won at Easter Road and took a point at Celtic Park. Form has been a big problem for them though and they haven’t played with any consistency at all this season. They’ve strung together 4 wins in a row in the last 3 weeks however, although they haven’t really faced any decent oppostion since drawing away at Tannadice at the start of February.
Generally loathe to back on or recommend betting on Celtic but 8/13 is a decent price. 2 unimpressive performances in the league recently but both of those resulted in victories. Barcelona away isn’t the distraction it might have been - there’s no great expectation in going out there next Tuesday - and the domestic league is enough to concentrate the minds with 3 points required from every match.
Despite all the publicity earlier in the season about Celtic’s poor defensive record away from home the away form hasn’t been all that bad at all: 28 points from a possible 39, almost identical to Rangers’ points ratio. Hibs’ home form is slightly worse at 26 points from a possible 39.
It’s not the banker I’d like it to be and it’s not fantastic value but 8/13 is just tempting enough to form part of an accumulator in my book.