More asterisks than a tipp all Ireland, this year’s season gets underway tonight.
Season reduced from 162 to 60 games, schedule redrawn so NL east plays AL east for example (Yankees v champion Nats is the opener) and there’s less cross country travel, empty ballparks but no cocooning so how long til a team goes down wholesale?
A seven game loss streak was no big deal before, catastrophic now, plus teams don’t really need to worry about rest and restricting innings so it’s a sprint. Here’s the athletics brief and non comprehensive preview
If you’re a baseball fan who hasn’t paid as much attention in this truncated season as usual, you certainly aren’t alone. Even The Athletic writer Mike Vorkunov, who formerly covered the sport, has seen his attention lapse a bit. Thankfully for him – and our readers – he’s got plenty of colleagues to catch him up. National MLB writer Marc Carig volunteered for the task.
Mike Vorkunov : Hey Marc! Wow, it’s exciting to talk baseball with you again. We used to be on the Mets beat together in 2014 and 2015. I jumped off and now I’m covering the Knicks. You’re now one of our national ball writers. I think I made the right choice since I don’t have to worry about being Carig’d in a clubhouse anymore. And you’re kind of the 24/7 title champion of baseball reporting.
I stopped covering baseball daily after the 2016 season and, admittedly, I’ve kind of lost track of the sport ever since. But I want to come back in. I know this may sound weird, but after months of daily bickering, the owners trying to kneecap the union in the bargaining to restart the season, and a campaign that may crown a champion after only 37 percent of a normal season, I am kind of in on MLB 2020!
Here’s the thing, I don’t quite have the same feel for the sport anymore. So this is why we’re here. I need your help, man. You gotta let me know what I need to watch for since I haven’t been watching.
OK, first question: I was reading your aces story with Andy — Who the hell is Luis Castillo?
Marc Carig : Vork! Has it been that long? Man, I feel like it was only yesterday that you were complaining about the lack of a decent charcuterie plate in Cincinnati and convincing others on the beat to book the Grand Budapest Hotel. I’m glad you are back in on baseball.
Luis Castillo is a filthy righthander with the Reds. I could tell you about how his changeup is elite. But since you’ve been gone, a fellow named @PitchingNinja has been kind enough to make it easy to see for yourself.
Also, the Reds might be good. Pretty sure that wasn’t the case when you got off the beat. But get this, they spent a bunch of money this offseason. Oh, and their strength is … pitching.
Vorkunov : I remember we got a nice charcuterie board in Milwaukee. I think at Odd Duck. Milwaukee is definitely an underrated city on the circuit.
The Reds being good is definitely a change. I’ll need to get used to that. That Joey Votto fellow was awesome. That hasn’t changed. Cincinnati being a pitching-first club is definitely weird. It’s also unusual that even the Reds are spending money. Back in my day, small-market teams — and I covered one with the Mets — didn’t do that sort of thing often.
But I know the Mets are for sale. Is this going to be the last year of the Wilpon dynasty? Back in 2015, I thought the Mets were about to usher in a 10-year reign with their glut of talented pitching. That seems to have been whittled down to Jacob deGrom and his dominant right arm. I did NOT see that coming.
Is there a team out there that is banking on its own stable of young arms to push them to contention for the next few years? I know everyone throws gas nowadays but what’s the team or two I should be dialed into because they could have the next [warning: dated reference] Harvey/Syndergaard/Matz/deGrom?
Carig : Well, I hate to break it to you about Joey Votto. While he is still awesome, his power numbers the last few years, not so awesome. And yeah, don’t sleep on the Reds. I liked them last year and I like them even more this season. They got better this winter. Keep an eye on them. Also, I may regret this but… the Mets might be worth tracking. They are intriguing for sure.
You want young pitching? Let me introduce you to the Oakland A’s. They’re not all healthy at the moment. A.J. Puk just went down with a shoulder thing and Jesús Luzardo tested positive with COVID-19 so his summer camp was slowed down. But those two along with Sean Maneaa and maybe the best of the bunch, Frankie Montas, give the A’s a really nice group of young arms. In fact, in talking to folks around baseball leading up to the season, the A’s have been a popular pick to do some things. In a typical year, the A’s would be working around some innings limits to get through the marathon. But over 60 games, there’s less of those concerns.
I mentioned Montas earlier. He did not make our aces list — somewhat of an oversight on my part. We took the 60 qualified starting pitchers by fWAR, which is why Montas didn’t make the list for review. Except, he was so good before his PED suspension that he actually posted a 3 WAR in just 96 innings. I missed him because he didn’t qualify.
That said, you should know that to some teams, “starters” and “rotations” are kinda retro now. True story.
Vorkunov : Has anyone ever been wrong betting the Mets are good? I can’t see how that could go sideways on you. I will say this Pete Alonso is pretty good. I’ve seen him hit a bunch of dingers. And dingers are fun. So I’m in on Pete Alonso. And Jeff McNeil. And the Mets announcing crew. Did anyone find Gary Cohen’s Twitter account yet?
I kinda like the idea of a 60-game season, though. I feel like that will make teams more aggressive. They can’t get away with stashing prospects in the minors to save a year of service time and they probably won’t be as conservative with their pitching. I like the idea that it could create chaos too. I know everyone has already used last year’s Nationals as an example of how a short season would have vastly different outcomes, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
There’s got to be a champion regardless, let’s see if we can get there another way. Like what if it means that some up-and-coming team arrives a year early because their talent wins out in a sprint instead of getting exposed over the course of a marathon. Someone told me about Luis Robert the other day and then I started checking Baseball-Reference for stats on Yoán Moncada and Eloy Jiménez and Lucas Giolito and now I’m in on the White Sox and their 25/1 odds. Talk me out of it.
Carig : I absolutely won’t talk you out of it. The White Sox signaled pretty early in the offseason that they weren’t screwing around when they signed Yasmani Grandal, one of the best catchers in the sport. It’s funny. After all these months about labor squabbles, it obscured the fact that we saw teams like the White Sox and the Reds get aggressive to improve their teams.
What’s fun about the 60-game schedule is how much every team can be a factor. So, last year, when you were still out on baseball and covering the Knicks’ latest debacle, the Seattle Mariners, who were not very good, started the year 13-2. They went into the shitter right after that. But imagine something like that this year. Let’s take the NL East. You mentioned the Mets. They are interesting. The Phillies are right there. Same for the Braves. The Nationals are the reigning world champs and even though Anthony Rendon is gone, all that pitching makes them quite dangerous. Now, if the Marlins start 13-2, imagine how the rest of the division must scramble. They’ve got to treat every game like must-win lest they run out of time to chase down the Marlins.
The Marlins don’t actually have to stay hot to have a massive impact on a division that was going to be a dogfight.
Vorkunov : Yeah, that kind of scenario sounds fun. I know baseball is this day-in, day-out grind of a sport but maybe making it into a March Madness Lite regular season will have some interesting unintended consequences. Also, all I know about the Mariners at this point is that they have that GM who trades like he just got his first job and downloaded the Robinhood app.
Speaking of Seattle, were you there when we went to Salumi? That’s a 70-grade food city.
But I guess it could be good for the sport if the giants make the postseason too (and, I guess, the Giants). I know the Dodgers and Yankees are loaded again. I’m still confused why the Red Sox traded Mookie Betts, by the way. Should of kept him. In the NBA every team is desperately trying to leverage everything it can to get a star and in baseball, they just trade them away.
What’s going on there? Didn’t Cleveland trade its best pitcher and also think about trading Francisco Lindor? The Nationals let Rendon leave after a title. That’s kind of thrown me about baseball lately. I don’t quite understand that value system.
Carig : It’s should’ve, dude. I was at Salumi. Miss that place!
The Red Sox didn’t feel like getting crushed by the luxury tax anymore, and they weren’t going to spend enough to sign Betts to an extension. So, he was traded away in the kind of move that should never happen. The Dodgers took advantage and it looks like they’re about to lock him down to a contract.
The ideal of “efficiency” was already the thing when you were still covering baseball. It’s everywhere now. Risk-taking is getting drummed out of the sport. Sometimes, it’s easy to wonder if the stewards of these teams actually care a little about winning. Lindor is a terrific player, the kind of guy that MLB should be marketing the hell out of. He’s gifted and he plays with pure joy. He’s bilingual.
Yet, this is the message out of Indians ownership, where it’s clear that Lindor’s payday will be coming elsewhere.
Quick, name three Rays.
You probably got two, tops. Yet, Tampa Bay is one of the best teams in baseball. If they won this year’s bizarro World Series, I would not be shocked. Unlike the NBA, you really don’t need a star to win in this sport. It certainly helps a lot. But it is not required.
Vorkunov : The Rays haven’t moved to Montreal and become the Weekend at Bernie’s Expos yet?
Yeah, but I like stars. Sometimes it’s OK to be basic. I loved covering Yoenis Céspedes while he chain-smoked behind the dugout pregame and mashed at night. Matt Harvey was a pain for a reporter but that guy was electric in his prime. Give me more Mike Trout. I wish that guy would actually get to play in the playoffs. Let the Yankees or Rays borrow him for a minute and give the front office quants a vacation.
But I don’t really know much about the next stable of MLB stars. I know about Jack Flaherty and Ronald Acuña now but who else is there?
Carig : Let’s start with some names you know. Vlad Guerrero has a son who rakes. Vlad Jr. plays first base for the Blue Jays. He’s going to be special. Fernando Tatis has a kid who rakes, too. Tatis Jr. plays shortstop for the Padres. He’s going to be special. You’d love Tim Anderson, the White Sox shortstop and batting champion. Baseball’s getting better about letting guys just do their thing and my heart warms every time Anderson flips a bat and triggers some the unwritten rules crowd. Go check out what Juan Soto did last season. Then google his age. And then think, if he’s this refined as a hitter at this stage in his career, what does the rest look like?
Something you’ll notice about these guys: they’re not afraid to say things. I remember that stodgy-ass baseball culture made you crazy back in the day. But Flaherty has been outspoken about social justice — and the dude plays in St. Louis. Pete Alonso strikes an impressive balance of letting fans get a sense of who he is while still clearly keeping his focus on his primary occupation. There’s a lot of young talent, Vork. Maybe this new era of letting them just play and be themselves helps to answer this age-old issue of baseball not marketing its stars.
Vorkunov : Hold up — Soto had a 138 OPS+ and 34 bombs in his age-20 season?!?! OMG, he’s gonna be a beast in DC until the Nationals don’t re-sign him because they’re not getting enough WAR-per-dollar.
That makes me happy that there are more players now who want baseball to be fun and have fewer roadblocks. I never minded the three-true-outcomes evolution of the sport as much as its personality suppression. Every time some pitcher got angry that someone pimped a home run felt like an unnecessary culture war waged to win back some atavistic society I never felt a part of. Sports should be fun. More bat flips, please. More Gatorade showers and ripping jerseys off after a walk-off (unless there’s a buzzer underneath).
By the way, what the hell is gonna happen with the Astros? Is the whole starting lineup going to get beaned the first time through the order on Opening Day? I feel like the pandemic might have bought them cover after their scandal this winter gave the whole sport the ass.
Is there anything else big I missed over the last few years?
Carig : Let’s see. Sports Illustrated predicted that the Astros would win a World Series and got it right. They did not predict anything about trash cans. I doubt the fans will forget about it once they’re let back in the ballpark. Turns out the Red Sox were bending the rules, too, on the way to the World Series, though apparently not as badly as they did in Houston. Carlos Beltrán’s tenure as Mets manager wound up being only slightly longer than his NLCS at-bat against Adam Wainwright, which is too bad because Beltrán’s a Hall of Famer. It would have been cool to see him take on the challenge.
The Rays invented the “opener.” It’s weird. But it worked so well that it has spread. The Mariners still haven’t made the playoffs. Neither have the Mets, for that matter. Yo had an interaction with a wild boar and Jacob deGrom won a couple of Cy Youngs.
Remember when Stephen Strasburg was a soft, overhyped headcase? Turns out that was all crap. Matt Harvey was not better. Strasburg is an ace and a big reason the Nationals won the World Series. The Brewers went back to the ball-and-glove logo, and it’s spectacular. The Padres went back to brown and mustard, and it’s spectacular. Manny Machado and Bryce Harper got paid. Gerrit Cole is no longer meh. Charlie Morton is one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Oh, a lot of people love A-Rod, and now he’s going to buy the Mets from the Wilpons with J-Lo.
Vorkunov : Well, that’s definitely a lot. I’m happy to get back into baseball, though. For all of its warts, it’s still a nice soundtrack to summer.
Carig : Oh, National League pitchers hitting, 1876-2020. RIP. Just didn’t want you to be surprised.
Vorkunov : [Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.]