Yeooowwwwww
Pootsy reaching straight for the keep themmuns out rhetoric.
The unionist vote is dying and also splintering in contrast to a growing nationalist vote, interesting to see where they go from here.
Pressure will come for some sort of Unionist super party too but canât see Allister accepting being absorbed.
There will be some pressure at the next Westminster elections for the UUP and TUV to step aside.
Geo blocked I thinkâŠ
Spot on. 4 of the Green tds and almost all of the socialist types only have a seat because SF didnât run another candidate in that particular constituency in 2020
Councils called so far
Mid Ulster
Nationalist vote +2
Unionist vote -2
Swing +4
SDLP loss cancelled out by ind rep gain
Lisburn and Castlereagh
Nationalist vote +3
Unionist vote -5
Swing +8
Independent gain here was an ind unionist
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon
Nationalist 0
Unionist -1
Swing +1
Nationalist vote was up but few tight calls meant it didnât transcend into extra seats. All gain for a unionist seat. SF now the largest party.
Overall unionist seats 185, Nationalists 183.
The alliance 67 probably 80% soft unionist if vote was called.
Itâs not the seismic shift itâs been spun as really
The decline in the âmoderateâ UUP unionist vote over last number of years continues and is remarkable
Itâs just switching to alliance really. They still unionists but quite correctly it not the most important day to issue unlike SF and DUP who make everything about identity
Have you any figures for who Alliance transfers went to?
Nationalist vote barely getting over 40% when PBP are counted. It has barely moved in 25 years.
Another disaster for those who want a United Ireland.
It really is.
In 2019 it was
Unionist 206 v Nationalist 165
2023
Unionist 185 v Nationalist 183
-21 v +18
A swing of 39 seats is seismic in just 4 years. The Alliance vote might be soft unionist but when unionism completely thwarts any sort of move on from deep rooted bigotry and sectarianism this is only going to drive moderates one way when it comes to a Border Poll.
Itâs the growth in what were real unionist hardcore constituencies like Antrim and Newtownabbey, Lisburn and Castlereagh and Causeway Coast and Glens which is startling. The DUP had the biggest vote in 5 DEAs last time around, this time it was 2. The demographics are trending one way, the nationlist vote is rising and the unionist vote is declining and this will become notable in the coming years.
The nationalist population from Belfast, Derry City and surrounds is sprawling out into what were once unionist areas. 4-5% gains in nationalist pref votes in staunch areas combined with similar decreases in the unionist vote are seismic shifts.
Unionism is becoming ever and ever more marginalised. There are now only 3 staunch Unionist councils:
Lisburn and Castlereagh (where nationalists have increased their seats from 4 to 6)
Mid and East Antrim (where nationalists have increased their seats from 2 to 3)
Ards and ND, the last bastion of Ulster Scotsism
Other than that itâs nationalist dominated or very slight unionist majority councils that are trending one way and one way only. There were no nationalist losses in any council, only gains.
We will take it, one DEA at a time.
Theyâll have to start burning nationalists out of Loyalist towns again and maybe rigging the housing lists so that loyalists can get the houses in these towns.
Nope, the unionist vote is just dying out. A lot of SDLP vote is switch to Alliance. Look at some of their MLAs who have a Catholic/nationalist background at the minute would be:
Eoin Tennyson
Sorcha Eastwood
Nuala MacAllister
Stephen Farry
Patricia OâLynn
David McCann has done some sort of assessment of the Independents who won seats and has it as 10 nationalists, 6 Unionists and 3 non-aligned.
I think Causeway Coast is the most interesting one.
This is the 2019 result:
1 being Limavady
2 being Bann
In Limavady, 2019 had a 56.1% unionist vote, 17.9% nationalist vote. 2023 41.4% unionist, 37.2% nationalist, thatâs a 34% swing. Next time round Iâd be shocked if itâs not a nationalist constituency.
In Bann, 2019 had a 61% unionist vote and 28.7% nationalist vote, in 2023 this had slipped to a 49.4% unionist vote and a 33.4% nationalist vote.
People have buried their heads in the sand for years, the demographic changes have been flagged for 10 years now. Political unionism has shown nothing but a lust for the 1950s to return and every political decision they make seems to be aimed at antagonising nationalists rather than making their state work. Young, educated Protestants are becoming more and more minority now and those that are there seem to be throwing their hat in with Alliance.
SFâs message in contrast has been progressive and looking to the future and opportunities, thatâs why they have carried through a young voting base, thatâs what resonates with them. You look at the age demographic between SF candidates and DUP/TUV/UUP candidates across any constituency, itâs stark.
Political unionism is effectively a pursuit for 50+ male bigots.
A lot of that is Unionists not voting at all. Which is hardly surprising because it isnât an attractive or even visionary politics. Itâs unremittingly negative in character and tone and if you take the tribal elements out of it there is nothing there.
Thereâs certainly an element of that but Iâd say that non-voting element is in the u50 bracket. Political unionism is broken, taking directions from drug dealing gangs, doubling down on the tactics that got them to this position in the first place.
To be fair Adams saw this coming years back in that it will be equality that will break them.