If Waterford and Cork win, Cork finish 2nd and Tipp 3rd.
If Waterford and Limerick win, Limerick finish 2nd and Tipp 3rd.
If Waterford win and Limerick and Cork draw, Cork finish ahead of Limerick. If Waterford win by 5 or more, Limerick qualify in 3rd. If Waterford win by less than 5, Tipp qualify in 3rd.
Just tell me what needs to happen for tipp to be gone
Tipp to lose by 5 or more and Limerick and Cork must draw.
Then let’s hope this happens
Group 1
Mayo win the group if they get a draw or win against Cork.
Cork would win the group on head to head if they beat Mayo and Kerry fail to beat Louth.
Any of the top three teams could win the group on scoring difference in the event of a three way tie on 4 points.
Given Louth and Kerry have the same scoring difference, any Louth win puts them ahead of Kerry and into a qualifying position.
If Louth and Mayo win, it’s a three way tie for the 2-4 positions on 2 points and scoring difference is the tiebreaker.
If Louth and Mayo win, Kerry would need to make up three or possibly four points on Cork in scoring difference in order to avoid being eliminated.
If Louth win and Cork avoid defeat against Mayo, Kerry are eliminated.
| 1 |
 Mayo
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 30 | +6 | 4 | Advance to quarter-final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |
 Kerry
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 37 | −3 | 2 | Advance to preliminary quarter-final |
| 3 |
 Cork
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 2 | |
| 4 |
Louth
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 36 | −3 | 0 |
I’ve a sneaking fancy Cork will beat Mayo and Kerry will beat Louth by about 13 points, and Kerry will win the group.
Group 2
| 1 |
 Galway
|
2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 25 | +11 | 4 | Advance to quarter-final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |
 Tyrone
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 27 | −1 | 2 | Advance to preliminary quarter-final |
| 3 |
 Armagh
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 28 | −1 | 2 | |
| 4 |
Westmeath
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 36 | −9 | 0 |
Galway win the group with a draw or win v Armagh.
If Armagh beat Galway by 7 points, they would finish ahead of Galway.
If Armagh beat Galway and Tyrone fail to beat Westmeath, Armagh win the group.
If Tyrone lose to Westmeath and Armagh avoid defeat against Galway, Tyrone are eliminated.
Armagh can be eliminated if Galway give them a hiding and Westmeath beat Tyrone.
Group 3
| 1 |
 Roscommon
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 28 | +10 | 3 | Advance to quarter-final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |
 Dublin
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 3 | Advance to preliminary quarter-final |
| 3 |
 Kildare
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 36 | −9 | 1 | |
| 4 |
 Sligo
|
2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 38 | −10 | 1 |
Looks like a straight scoring shoot out between Roscommon (playing Kildare) and Dublin (playing Sligo) to win the group.
And therefore a straight scoring shoot out between Kildare and Sligo to avoid elimination.
However: If Sligo beat Dublin by 10 points and Kildare beat Roscommon by 10 points, Dublin are eliminated.
Group 4
| 1 |
 Monaghan
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 35 | +5 | 3 | Advance to quarter-final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 |
Derry
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 32 | +5 | 3 | Advance to preliminary quarter-final |
| 3 |
 Donegal
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 2 | |
| 4 |
 Clare
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 40 | −10 | 0 |
Clare are already eliminated because Donegal have the head to head over them.
Looks like a straight scoring shoot out between Derry (playing Clare) and Monaghan (playing Donegal) to win the group. Derry will win this shoot out.
Donegal would get second place in the group by beating Monaghan.
Technically Donegal can still win the group if there are wins for Donegal and Clare.
Has anyone broken down what the situation would be with this weekend games if the gaa had gone with the consensus of only two to qualify.
Both of these are looking unlikely to materialise at this stage, you’d have to say.
Still early stages in the qualifiers but it already looks like the chances of Ireland getting a play-off are 50-50 at best.
In Group D, Wales, who we want to qualify automatically, look certain to fail, with Turkey likely getting their place. So that’s one down.
In Group F Austria v Sweden tomorrow is a big game. We want Austria to win that as Sweden are below us in the Nations League rankings. As said elsewhere Austria appear to going well but the Swedes are always worthy of respect.
Romania, who are behind us in the rankings, look a big threat to qualify in Group I, especially after a fine 2-2 draw in Switzerland this evening. Israel, who are ahead of us in the rankings, are their main opponents. I think I fancy Romania there.
In Group J, Slovakia, who are below us in the rankings, have had a decent start to the group. We want either of Bosnia or Iceland to get second behind Portugal - but both appear to be on the downslope and very beatable.
At this stage, if I had to call it, I think we won’t get a play-off as I think Turkey, Romania and Slovakia will all nab automatic qualification spots.
Whats the permutations for spock to leave?
Bad results for Ireland this evening in Group J.
Bosnia Herzegovina 0 Luxembourg 2
Iceland 0 Portugal 1
Second place in that group is surely between Slovakia and Luxembourg, both of whom are behind Ireland in the Nations League rankings.
So it looks like two groups are nailed on to provide qualifiers below Ireland in the rankings. One more and it’s no play-off.
Austria beating Sweden was a rare reason for positivity on the night though.
Spock and Richie Sadlier will feel vindicated by that Luxembourg result. They’ve taken a few scalps recently now. Can’t see them sustaining it for an entire campaign though. They did lose 3-0 at home to us after all. Slovakia surely shoe ins for 2nd though barring a resurgence from Iceland.
You’d think Austria’s win puts them in the box seat for one of the qualifying spot. You’d think Belgium should still have enough to hold off Sweden but Belgium are definitely on the way down.
Poland’s defeat in Moldova another bad result for Ireland. Albania v Poland in September a big game in that group.
I think it’s probably too much to expect that all of Holland, Israel and Poland get the qualifying spots ahead of Greece, Romania and Albania.
Israel probably won’t finish above the Romanians anyway. The Swiss capitulated late on against Romania last night to hand them a vital point away from home.
Holland and Poland will i think but Israel looks very dodgy.
All-Ireland football semi-final draw permutations:
If there are wins tomorrow for Dublin and Derry:
The semis cannot be Kerry v Dublin/Monaghan v Derry. A draw will take place to determine if it is…
Kerry v Monaghan/Dublin v Derry
or
Kerry v Derry/Dublin v Monaghan
Wins for Dublin and Cork:
Semis cannot be Kerry v Cork/Monaghan v Dublin.
A draw will take place to determine if it is
Kerry v Dublin and Monaghan v Cork
or
Kerry v Monaghan and Dublin v Cork
Wins for Mayo and Derry:
Semis cannot be Kerry v Mayo/Monaghan v Derry.
A draw will take place to determine whether the semis are:
Kerry v Monaghan and Mayo v Derry
or
Kerry v Derry and Mayo v Monaghan
Wins for Mayo and Cork:
Presumably a completely open draw as all possible permutations involve one tie where teams have already played each other. Kerry have played Mayo and Cork, but Mayo and Cork have also played each other.
