Hopefully this complete Indo sponsored bullshit and your talk of ‘filletting’ can be nipped in the bud fairly quick. 25,000 of these people will lose their jobs. 25fuckingthousand. That’s not to mention every one who starts working in it from now on will be paid 10 per cent less and their pensions have been cut.
Yeah they really escaped scot free.
You’re ignoring how hard mbb works. He has a right to feel aggrieved.
This plan will be ridiculed, talk of cutting 25,000 people from the civil service and in the same breath decreasing unemployment from 13.5% to below 10% by 2014. There is not a chance of this happening.
Page 8 of the plan also has a handy bar chart of the interest to be paid, we paid 2.5bn in 2009 (8% of tax revenue) and we will pay 8.4bn in 2014 (20% of tax revenue). This means that they expect tax revenue to grow from 31.25bn in 2009 to 42bn in 2014 - are they on trippin? Not a chance that is going to happen whilst 15bn is being taken out of the economy. I presume the markets are having a right laugh it.
I stopped reading it fairly quickly.
It looks horrendous. If some people are really going to suggest Public Sector haven’t taken a massive hit here they are off their heads. Huge cuts to social welfare too and cutting the minimum wage by a euro is really going to please IBEC but the impact it will have on the economy will of course be minimal while the social impact will most likely be devastating.
Just watched a bit of Vincent Browne last night. The state has to default really but when are Labour or FG going to admit this or are they going to follow FF’s lead?
James O’Reilly dodged the question completely on the last word. In essence Fine Gael’s response has been “we don’t have a response”. They support the minimum wage cut though. From what I’ve seen so far, FG and Labour want nothing to do with the tough decisions. Any international analyst I’ve heard has more or less said today’s announcement means nothing.
These figures were posted on p.ie:
A person earning €55k a year due to the change in tax credits will lose €1,860 a year whilst…
A person earning €18k a year on minimum wage and doing a 40 hour week will lose €2,080 a year even before they are taxed.
Haven’t seen them contradicted anywhere.
The only good think about all this is the ‘‘drama’’ of it all,
The IMF aren’t coming no one had a clue,
The IMF arrive,
Johnny G kicks cowen in the balls,
The four year plan,
What’s on the agenda tomorrow, one of the banks to fail, a British debt crises, becoming the 51st state of the US, Kenny and Gilmore to give a date for their civil partnership ???
The last couple of weeks have included a Rabbit rant, Vincent Brown’s temper tantrum and the pope said condoms are OK and a few other bits and pieces
Means nothing because this government has so little time left or means nothing because of situation with the banks and we basically have to default and as a result our financial circumstance will change?
Noonan just on Six One saying they don’t support a cut to the minimum wage. If this is passed though I think there is a very slim chance they will hike it up again.
Just watched the next bit of VB. The answer to my question is clear.
They don’t seem to see any distinction between the government and the opposition, they’re probably right on that count.
Meaningless because it says nothing about the bank debt and how it will be payed back.
Pretty much everyone except Brian Lenihan seem to be ready to admit we can’t make the interest repayments. Lenihan refused to address the issue on the two occasions (Browne and Cooper) it was raised with him today.
It’s a fairly mental state of affairs when a plan is being released that ignores a €40+ billion black hole over the duration of its implementation. Don’t ask, don’t tell stuff. I guessed last night that the ECB will ultimately issue an interest rate below 5% and the government will say we’ve got a great deal. Everything I’ve seen today seems to point in that direction. It’s all irrelevant, this plan will ultimately contract the economy further and we won’t be able to meet anything near the repayments.
So what do you predict will happen? What do people exactly mean when they predict these doomsday scenarios? how bad is it predicted it could get on the ground among ordinary people? will we our mouths be green from eating grass at the sides of roads?
Serious question by the way, haven’t seen any vision of what it will actually mean
In the case of a default you mean? It’s only been on the agenda in a meaningful way since Vincent Browne’s show last night but any and every financial analyst interviewed suggested that it’s not only plausible, but that it’s the only option left open to us.
One article for you to peruse - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-23/bust-is-better-than-a-bailout-for-irish-patient-matthew-lynn.html
Might as well post it
Bust Is Better Than a Bailout for Irish Patient: Matthew Lynn
By Matthew Lynn - Nov 23, 2010 12:00 AM GMT
It’s not too late. The request for aid may have been made. The negotiations may have started. But Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen can still refuse a bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
It might sound like madness for a drowning man to refuse a lifebelt. But the decision the Irish make in the next few days will shape the future of their nation for a generation.
Ireland would be better off going bust than taking a loan. The conditions attached to a rescue aren’t worth it: Once it takes EU money, it will never get off the hook. And the Irish banks aren’t worth saving anyway. Defaulting on your debts is a far less scary prospect than usually portrayed.
The real question is whether Ireland’s politicians have the courage to take that step.
Last weekend, the Irish surrendered to pressure to accept an EU- and IMF-led package, similar to the deal hammered out for Greece earlier this year. There was no surprise about that. The markets had grown so nervous about Ireland’s finances and the cost of its bank bailouts that yields on 10-year government debt reached almost 9 percent this month.
The final amount of the bailout is still to be determined. So are the terms. This means, of course, that it isn’t too late. The deal may still fall through, particularly with a general election looming as support for the government wanes.
Bond Chaos
True, that would cause chaos in the bond markets. Trading in Portuguese, Spanish and Italian debt wouldn’t be a pretty sight for the few days after rescue talks collapsed. But the Irish should still say no.
Here’s why.
First, the conditions are too onerous. The EU may demand an end to Ireland’s low corporate-tax rate. Its 12.5 percent rate has been a cornerstone of the country’s economy, attracting numerous businesses to relocate there. In 2008, two major U.K. companies, United Business Media Plc and drugmaker Shire Plc, switched their tax residence to Ireland to cut their tax bills.
Even if it isn’t explicitly part of the rescue deal, Ireland will come under pressure over the next few years to raise its corporate taxes, which take companies, government revenue and jobs from Ireland’s neighbors. It will be hard to explain to businesses in Dusseldorf why their high taxes are being used to help rescue competitors in Donegal.
Even so, it would be a huge mistake. Low taxes and an open business culture are what made Ireland successful. You don’t cure a sick patient by taking out a lung.
‘Hotel California’
Second, the EU-IMF rescue looks like financial methadone. It numbs the pain and gets you off drugs, but it’s addictive. The cure can be worse than the disease. Months have passed since the Greek bailout, and there isn’t much sign of Greece accessing the capital markets. The yield on Greek bonds remains more than 11 percent. It’s a “Hotel California” package: You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave.
Third, this is mostly about rescuing EU financial institutions. It is the Irish banks that are in trouble, and if they go down, it will cause massive losses at other European lenders. But why should the Irish people worry about that? If French, German or British banks suffer big write-downs, let their governments deal with them. Ireland could just close its banks – such a small country doesn’t need its own finance industry any more than it needs its own carmakers.
Emigration Wave
Fourth, Ireland risks tipping into an economic spiral. A key to the Irish economic revival of the last 20 years was reversing emigration. For a century, young Irish people went abroad to make their careers. When they started staying at home, it was a boon to the economy. If a generation is saddled with these debts, why not move to London or New York where the prospects are better? It’s already happening: Emigration is exceeding immigration for the first time since 1995. It will be the most highly skilled, energetic people who leave. How exactly is that going to help the nation recover?
Five, going bust isn’t so bad. Russia and Argentina defaulted on their debts. It wasn’t the end of the world. The financial markets portray it as a catastrophe, but that is mainly because bankers and bond investors stand to lose a lot of money. So long as it is done in an orderly, structured way, a default is often the best solution to a financial mess.
Underneath the property bubble – which was caused by low euro-area interest rates – Ireland has a competitive, export- oriented economy. September figures show exports rose 2 percent and the trade surplus increased. In a weak global economy, that’s a very decent performance.
If it defaults on its debts, Ireland can bounce back fairly quickly. If it accepts an EU bailout, it will be stuck in recession for a generation.
(Matthew Lynn is a Bloomberg News columnist and the author of “Bust,” a forthcoming book on the Greek debt crisis. The opinions expressed are his own.)
To contact the writer of this column: Matthew Lynn in London at matthewlynn@bloomberg.net
Where would we get the money to pay for public services and the likes though? What do you actually think would happen say public services, wages, dole etc if we were to do this?
What has actually happened in comparable countries to us who have defaulted? Likes of Argentina and Russia would have far poorer populations so not really comparable I would have thought.
Hard to know how much power they’ll have to get around it turfcutter. The Civil Service is bloated and heaving, something needs to be done with it.
Well if the experts are to be believed that it will be a FG/LAB coalition and there is no way the labour party will touch Croke Park, unless you have something like the P.D’s and FG are strong enough then it’s in the melting pot alright.
But if you make massive cuts in the public sector you increase unemployment and take more money out of the economy
I’d say you have to be careful about the agenda about anyone commentating on our difficulties. Impossible to know where Americans imploring us to default are coming from. Do they genuinely feel our pain or are they on a crusade against the euro. Certainly m not sure that Argentina is here we want to be. We have no idea what will happen to us if we default and as someone who grew up when we were an isolated country on the west coast of Europe I’m not sure I want to go back to that. Don’t get me wrong - I’m as mad as hell about what FF have done to us but I’d be slow enough to listen to a bunch of American neo liberals who don’t really give a shit about us.
Agree with you about the various agendas regarding default, would someone make money out of it if we did?? We would also struggle to borrow money for years and the rates would be crazy BUT can we pay the current debt?
I’d say there are plenty of hedge funds out there who will make billions if we default. Read the Big Short by Michael Lewis to get a sense of how you can make am absolute killing by buying insurance on credit default swaps