Is it really that simple?
What’s the story with these 1 year bonds to BOI so?
Not that simple.
NAMA ponied up the cash to pay it, BOI to pay NAMA back within 90 days by getting a loan from ECB and that will be financed by this 12 mth bond. This is not arranged or in place yet.
Assumed that the gov then have 12 months to negotiate a longer term deal for the entire of the prom notes.
Not convinced. What is worrying me most is FG did not seek to take any credit for it and left without answering any questions.
I’m decidedly undecided on it
The deal is a farce. Basically swapped the notes for a bond with the same fair value.
Basically like me getting a loan from the bank to clear my credit card debt. It’s not a deal of any sort. Cosmetics.
If it was that at least it would be logical, defer a cash payment now and hope time inflates away value of debt. But I think they have taken NAMA cash and handed it over. And now we need to get it refinanced
So the ECB got their money at the end of the day.
Sounds like the whole “deal” was purely optics
They I’d, but it looks like they may lend us back the cash in exchange for a bond in due course
After a quiet couple of months, it looks like the eurozone is back on the brink again.
This time attention is firmly on Spain. Bond yields are steadily climbing (up towards 6%), unemployment is to hit 24% and the economy is due to contract by 1.7% at a conversative estimage.
Apparently they have a banking crisis that hasn’t yet been fully exposed and which will make our bailout look like loose change.
Does anybody remember when the Irish pound was devalued in 1993 and they said that was one of the main reasons why Ireland’s economy did well in the rest of the 1990s? Can the Euro not be devalued? It wouldn’t solve the debt owed between member countries but would it not make the Eurozone more competitive as a whole in the world market? Is this going on anyway around the world eg with the dollar and the yuan, strategies of competitive devaluation? Is quantatative easing just another word for devaluation?
I’ve come around to the view that the Euro isn’t going to break up whatever happens. The conditions underpinning it will definitely change though. But even if say, Greece was forced out of it and their new currency tanked in value and the wages there became a pittance, what would be there to stop it becoming the China of Europe? Surely it would make more sense to import goods from Greece than it does from China with regard to transport costs etc especially if the price of oil keeps going up?
Sid,
Check out s. 182 of the Lisbon treaty, the ecb can only re value it.
We gave away our fiscal sovereignty…
Devaluing the euro good for exports, terrible or imports. Oil would be ridiculous price for example relative to a devalued euro.
On your second point, perhaps your right but I think any country forced out of euro would be a long time straightening themselves out to be a competitive force. Good article in FT about it the other day Can’t find it now. Basically no easy answers possible that Europe will limp along in permanent state of disappointment I think was a line that stuck in my head
We should recapture it through arms, and hand it back to Fianna Fail where it belongs.
[quote=“sid waddell, post: 520139”]Does anybody remember when the Irish pound was devalued in 1993 and they said that was one of the main reasons why Ireland’s economy did well in the rest of the 1990s? Can the Euro not be devalued? It wouldn’t solve the debt owed between member countries but would it not make the Eurozone more competitive as a whole in the world market? Is this going on anyway around the world eg with the dollar and the yuan, strategies of competitive devaluation? Is quantatative easing just another word for devaluation?
I’ve come around to the view that the Euro isn’t going to break up whatever happens. The conditions underpinning it will definitely change though. But even if say, Greece was forced out of it and their new currency tanked in value and the wages there became a pittance, what would be there to stop it becoming the China of Europe? Surely it would make more sense to import goods from Greece than it does from China with regard to transport costs etc especially if the price of oil keeps going up?[/quote]
Problem is that probably ever major global currency needs to be devalued, except the Chinese.
We are banjaxed for at least 4 more years to 2016. I am taking that from 5 major multinats we work with
Consumer demand is awful. I have finance for a big enough Irish op and we can’t shift volume here.
a new bubble is expanding in agri with 1% finance available and significant price inflation. 2015 quota end and chinese demand has diverted resources to one sector again
finance dept is playing best pupil to look for a later write down and deferment. May be ok medium term but will see us fucked for the four years plus
Spanish bonds above 6% this morning.
Spanish economic minister says there is no need to worry as they are fully funded for most of this year…
How do you see the end of the quota working in agri, CCHA? Surely milk prices will suffer?
The demand for cattle is phenomenal at the moment with this base year coming up and everyone seemingly wanting to have high stock numbers. Calves that were making €90 two years ago making €300 now.
The more trouble everyone gets into the better for us.
Spain has overall unemployment of just under 25%, and youth unemployment of over 50%. These are Great Depression like figures. Its in a state of complete crisis.
Indeed, as I said above our problems are small fry compared to an economy like Spain. They have been in denial about the state of their banks for the past few years but looks like its all going to come crashing down.
They have already told the EU that they won’t be meeting (or even trying to meet) the targets set down for them by the EU in the fiscal compact
I have spoken to alot of Spanish young people who have come to Dublin to kill time and learn English for a few months, they say their country is fucked and as you say youth unemployment is off the scale. The youth of Europe are taking the brunt of this economic meltdown, surprising a pan european youth anarchist movement hasn’t taken off to be honest with the huge numbers now swelling the Marxian ‘Industrial Reserve Army’. The disaffection and resentment out there must be huge at this stage.
greece have defaulted.
being the good little european citizen sure is paying dividends for little old paddyland.
meanwhile the german economy continues to thrive.