Sevco v Celtic ☘

Will post up the preview by Michael Cox from the Athletic later.

Interesting selection decisions for Lennon who tends to have a surprise in these big games, not always positive surprises.

Keeper could be Forster or Gordon. Hard to know how this one will go. I expect it’s likely to be Gordon but depends on Forster in training I’d imagine. Gordon had a poor interview today where he talked about being disappointed when Forster signed and how it was a difficult week for him. He’s an odd chap.

Elhamed is doubtful and I imagine not likely to play so Bauer or Ajer could start at right back. Bauer hasn’t played at all and Ajer seemed to be ruled out but is possibly back in contention.

Simunovic, Jullien, Ajer and Bitton all have chances to play at centre back. I’d say it’s Jullien and then depending on who is fit it will be Simunovic or Bitton. If Ajer is fit I think he’ll be right back.

Even if Taylor signs today I think he has been injured so assume Bolingoli starts.

In midfield we will have Brown and Forrest in their usual positions. Christie and McGregor will start but depending on whether Ntcham is playing or not, one of them might shift wide. If Ntcham doesn’t play then Johnston or Elyounoussi will play.

Edouard will start and Bayo is likely to come on at some stage.

There’s a wild card option that has Bayo up front and Edouard on the left but I can’t see that happening.

Sevco will go with 11 huns I think.

Lennon said at the press conference yesterday that Elhamed would be out for a couple of weeks with a hairline fracture (presumably of the foot) and Rogic still isn’t ready. He said they’re hopeful about Ajer (groin strain but responding to treatment) and Simunovic (knee) should be available too.

Throw up that preview later alright.

I’d go with:

Gordon

Bauer
Ajer *
Jullien
Bolingoli

Brown
McGregor

Forrest
Christie
Johnston

Edouard

I’m tipping Lennon to shit it though and start Ntcham ahead of Johnston as he is a terribly conservative coach.

You’re really sticking to your premeditated views on Lennon.

This season after 12 games we are 39 goals scored 12 conceded. No games we didnt score.

2018/19 after 12 games we were 22F 8A. two games we didnt score.

17-18 after 12 games we were 32F 7A. one game we didnt score.

16-17 after 12 games we were 31F 19A. Three games we didnt score.

Not convinced by lots about this team but I don’t think conservatism has been a problem at all.

You’ll see tomorrow.

We’re conceding goals because we’re shit back there and poorly coached.

And scoring lots of goals. I’m not suggesting we are above criticism, I just don’t think a little more conservatism or pragmatism would be a bad thing. And we were badly bullied in midfield in both games at Ibrox last season. But there’s little point in arguing with you because you’ve never changed your mind on anything.

Back at you, I happen to be right though.

I have a bad feeling tomorrow is going to be a long 90 minutes for celtic…

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You aren’t making any sense. We lost our Champions League game 4-5. And your worry is that we are too conservative. You’re recycling opinions you had years ago and presuming they are still relevant.

Being shit at the back doesn’t mean we haven’t been conservative. We found ourselves one down against Cluj after 15 minutes. We simply had to go for it. The game was there for us over in Romania but he didn’t have the balls to go for it. I said it would cost us, it did.

Nobody is suggesting that. It’s impossible to debate with that sort of ridiculous statement.

We are scoring freely which you keep ignoring. And conceding too many. And you think this high scoring football where we are scoring more than in recent seasons is some sort of proof of conservative tactics. I’m a fool for even beginning to discuss it with you.

We are playing fucking piss which you keep ignoring.

You will see tomorrow, a big game we really need to be targeting a win in, just like we needed to do over in Romania. We will retreat into our shells and you will be out once again, defending the indefensible.

Eh no. I explicitly said that I wasn’t convinced by lots.

But I have watched our games, something you do occasionally, and I’m happy to confirm that we have been scoring lots and conceding too many and are not overly conservative.

And losing 3-4 at home to Cluj was the losing of that tie. Not a reasonable 1-1 draw away from home. But you have your mind made up and will argue that to the death even though a child could tell you which one was the bad result.

It’s grand not being conservative at home to St Johnstone and that.

Watch Johnston get benched tomorrow. That’s a game we should be targetting a win in, Lennon will be trying to eek out a draw. He is conservative, you are an apologist for the board and Lennon. You were out here last night cheerleading being shortchanged again.

After 15 minutes of the home leg we were already paying the price for not making the first leg count. They were awful in the first leg, they were there for the taking and we didn’t put our foot on their necks. It was gutless from the manager.

Johnston has played at Ibrox twice and he was hopeless both times. He is much improved but he’s a risk to start, especially in front of Bolingoli.

A risk to start one of your most dangerous attacking players and one of your most in form players? What’s the alternative? Bring in a fairly flaky and very inconsistent player and shunt out one of your most vital players into a role he is nowhere near as influential in?

Yeah sounds very unconservative to me.

This is boring. You don’t seem to understand what conservative means. You think a 1-1 away draw in Europe is worse than a 3-4 home loss to the same opposition a week later. You think scoring more goals and having a weak defence means we are conservative. And you think making tactical changes is conservative.

It’s boring. Enjoy your evening.

Yet again, you are defending the indefensible.

You think not taking a team when they are there for the taking is acceptable. Cluj were far, far better at Celtic Park than Romania. The away goals rule certainly gives incentive to have much more of a go away from home. Cluj were there for the taking in that first leg, Celtic had the opportunity to put the tie beyond doubt that night and Lennon bottled. You sat here defending it that night, they came back to Celtic Park a week later with tie very much in the balance, played much better and completed the job.

The tie was lost in the first leg. We were already paying for it 15 minutes into the second leg.

preview from The Athletic: (cc @Bandage)

Rangers’ pressing and Celtic finding space in behind: how the Old Firm derby will be won and lost

By Michael Cox, Kieran Devlin and Jordan Campbell

After two campaigns of inferiority back in the Scottish Premiership, last season was when Rangers truly started to compete in Old Firm contests.

In their first campaign back in the top-flight – 2016-17 – Rangers failed to win any of their six meetings with Celtic in all competitions, losing by an aggregate score of 16-4. The following season, they failed to win in five, losing 14-2 overall. But in 2018-19, it was honours even: both clubs won their two home matches. Celtic proved much more effective at collecting points from other matches, and won the title with relative ease. But each Old Firm contest was, at last, just that: a contest.

Much of that improvement is down to the impact of Steven Gerrard – and, in particular, his emphasis upon aggressive, organised pressing in advanced positions. The Old Firm contest has, perhaps more than any other match in Europe, always been characterised by frantic running, physical tackles and getting into the faces of the opposition in the early stages. Gerrard’s approach has proved particularly vital in these games, preparing his players properly both mentally and tactically.

It’s not difficult to work out why Gerrard places such emphasis upon pressing. His main coaching education was 18 months spent at Liverpool’s academy, working at a club where Jurgen Klopp had placed his stamp upon the first team but also on the club’s youth ranks too. Pressing was the fundamental part of Liverpool’s approach to both defence and attack and from an early stage of his Rangers tenure, that was on the agenda. Gerrard demanded high levels of fitness from his players and emphasised the importance of attempting to regain possession in all areas of the pitch.

One example of how Rangers follow the Klopp approach is when the opposition has a throw-in inside their own half. In those situations, Rangers absolutely pile players into positions around the thrower, congesting play and making it difficult for their opponents to get out – see below this example from last weekend’s 1-0 victory at St. Mirren, where seven players are in the vicinity of the ball.

That said, Rangers’ pressing wasn’t particularly evident during Gerrard’s first Old Firm game, a 1-0 loss to Celtic at Parkhead in early September. Perhaps suffering after an exhausting midweek trip to Russia in the Europa League, Rangers sat deep inside their own half, largely let Celtic play, and struggled to impose themselves.

By the final Old Firm game of the season, however, Rangers were transformed. They opened the scoring in the third minute when James Tavernier’s free-kick from an inside-left position curled and dipped into the far corner without a touch from anyone in the box – but more significant was the manner in which the free-kick had been won.

Celtic had possession at the back with their three defenders. Left-sided centre back Kristoffer Ajer played a square pass to Jozo Simunovic and this prompted Rangers forward Jermain Defoe to lead the press. Simunovic offloaded the ball right to Mikael Lustig, who tried to hammer the ball up the pitch but found himself shut down by Ryan Kent. Kent blocked the clearance, dribbled towards goal, and then was cynically tripped by the recovering right-wing-back Mikey Johnston. From the resulting free-kick, Tavernier scored.

That’s Celtic’s warning ahead of this weekend. Rangers will press ferociously from the outset and this could be the defining part of the derby – but how exactly do Rangers press?

Gerrard’s defensive approach has evolved over the last year but they now looked settled in their approach, finding the right balance between pressure and compactness.

Against Celtic in December, the intensity offered by Kent and Daniel Candeias helped suffocate Celtic’s full backs in the early stages. Gerrard will want to make another fast start and use the crowd to Rangers’ advantage by putting Celtic under pressure, especially given that it is likely two of Celtic’s back four will be experiencing the Old Firm derby for the first time.

But neither of Kent or Candeias’ replacements – Jordan Jones and Sheyi Ojo – possess the same aggressive streak and Gerrard won’t want to over-commit if his players aren’t able to implement the plan with the same conviction. That suggests a slightly more methodical approach could be taken, as was the case in May.

Rangers tweaked their system near the end of last season, partly due to Defoe deputising for the suspended Alfredo Morelos. It saw a switch to a 4-3-2-1 with a flatter midfield and the inside forwards deployed narrower.

When the ball was on one side, the opposite wide player – in this case Kent (below) – tucked in to shadow Scott Brown, despite conventional wisdom dictating that his position should be 15 yards wider. It was all about condensing Celtic’s space to play.

As the ball moved back centrally, Defoe pressed Simunovic – the centre of the back three – while covering the pass into Brown behind him. Arfield and Kent tucked in to surround the Celtic captain, forcing possession out wide to either Lustig or Ajer wide, as happened in the build-up to the aforementioned opener.

It was designed to guide the ball out to Celtic’s weaker players where Rangers’ midfielders, expected to be Ryan Jack and Joe Aribo on Sunday, would shuffle out to apply pressure.

This could be a wise tactic to use against Celtic due to concerns about their full backs. The composure of Boli Bolingoli at left back has been questioned, while Ajer, Celtic’s best centre back, is being deployed as a makeshift right back, which reduces his ability to carry the ball out from central areas.

This narrow set-up has been used sparingly by Gerrard this season, with only spells against Midtjylland serving as an example. It is unlikely that both Jones and Arfield will start as Gerrard has favoured the combination of a traditional winger from the left, with Scott Arfield coming in off the right flank.

Rangers used a backwards pass from Brown or the full-backs as the trigger to press last season but Neil Lennon has repeatedly called for his defenders to be more pragmatic if under heavy pressure. Don’t expect Celtic to always play through the press.

Lennon doesn’t mind his side being direct and that is something Rangers will need to mindful of when squeezing the game. Nikola Katic and Connor Goldson have looked assured this season so far, but the ball over the top caused problems last season.

If Rangers opt for a mid-block – only applying pressure as Celtic approach the halfway line, as they have done so far this season – then Celtic will be asked to play through a midfield containing Steven Davis, Jack and Aribo.

They have been playing as a flat three both in and out of possession, which had successfully denied space and cut off passing lanes, but Legia Warsaw were able to find some pockets in Poland last week.

Luquinhas was able to receive possession in the channel between Tavernier and Goldson three times during the game. It was a result of Jack and Arfield both trying to cover the ball wide and Legia exploiting that shift across.

Mikey Johnston is expected to start on the left wing for Celtic and has begun this season terrifically. He will be looking to receive possession in similar areas so, if Rangers do decide to press high up, Tavernier will need to ensure that the movement of Johnston and Ryan Christie doesn’t allow them to be found behind the Rangers midfield.

Unlike previous seasons, Rangers do not fear Celtic. Having banished the inferiority complex in derby games, Rangers will fancy themselves to unsettle Lennon’s side but even if they opt for a more controlled approach, they will be confident of stifling Celtic’s possession play.

How will Celtic respond to Rangers’ pressing tactics?

Well, as evidenced by both Ibrox games last year, and Motherwell away this season, Celtic are vulnerable to a disciplined high press, often struggling to calmly pass out of danger. From the games played so far this season, there is little indication that Celtic have learned how to nullify this. Rangers naturally counter-press instantly as soon as possession is lost. Take, for example, this situation away at St. Mirren.

Jack attempted to play a through-ball towards Scott Arfield but actually played it straight to St. Mirren left-back Calum Waters. Rather than offloading the ball quickly, Waters took his time, attempting to dribble towards the left.

But that played into Rangers’ hands – Jack took responsibility for his mistake, chased down Waters and put in a strong tackle, immediately putting Rangers back on the attack again. Celtic must be wary of dawdling in possession this weekend.

Celtic’s vulnerability to pressing is most apparent when Brown plays as the deepest central midfielder, as he probably will on Sunday. His composure in possession, and range of passing, are the weakest of Celtic’s midfielders, and he’s repeatedly caught on the ball or his passes are intercepted when passing lanes are quickly shut down.

When you look at how Celtic struggled against Motherwell in the opening half-hour recently, it’s clear that starving Celtic of central options is an effective tactic. Motherwell’s initial success came from applying similar principles to those Rangers used last season. Here, Brown was put under pressure with his back to goal, while the positioning of right winger Sherwin Seedorf put added pressure on the pass back to Christopher Julien.

Tellingly, at no point did Julien deepen or did Brown consider the switch to Bolingoli – once the ball went to Julien, his slack backpass put Scott Bain under huge pressure. Bolingoli hadn’t anticipated the next pass and was too high up to receive the ball. By that time, Allan Campbell had come across to make that pass a risky option, so much so that Bolingoli waved his keeper to punt it long. Instead, it ended with a Motherwell throw-in.

The best way to defend against Rangers’ high press, without compromising the rapid transitions along the ground which are so critical to Celtic’s success, is simple: they should play their three most technical midfielders with Brown dropping out. Ryan Christie, Olivier Ntcham and Callum McGregor are all excellent passers and decision-makers capable of playing through an intense press, and all are intelligent in their movement and positioning through opening up new passing lanes as others are closed off.

Callum McGregor’s spell as a deep-lying playmaker last autumn during Brown’s injury absence – with Christie and Tom Rogic as the shuttling No 8s – facilitated arguably the most entertaining football of Brendan Rodgers’ reign. It was enjoyable to watch and fundamentally effective. High pressing teams, such as RB Leipzig in their loss at at Parkhead last November, struggled to create chances. McGregor rarely ceded possession, and his quickfire arcing passes out wide to James Forrest and Scott Sinclair gave the wingers time to drive into space.

Given both Rangers’ full-backs push forward to participate in the press and contribute offensively, with Tavernier particularly advanced, they leave prominent gaps for opponents to exploit. Even though Kilmarnock and St. Mirren played cautiously against Rangers earlier this season, they still managed forward excursions by counter-attacking into wide areas, with St. Mirren’s Jon Obika missing a clear-cut opportunity to equalise at the death, a chance fashioned through exploiting huge space down Rangers’ left.

If Johnston and Forrest – two technical, quick wingers likely to start this weekend – rapidly receive the ball in the spaces vacated by Rangers’ full backs through McGregor’s usual passes, they could have a field day.

An alternative to having high-quality passers flooding the midfield and passing through Rangers’ press, is playing more defensively and simply passing over them. Rangers struggle to break down deep defences, relying overtly on opposition errors, and they don’t possess the physicality of Celtic’s centre-backs.

Vakoun Bayo proved his genuine ability as a target man – and prospective foil for Odsonne Edouard as the deeper forward – against Hearts last Sunday. Long balls to the front two are an opportunity to create chances without going through an unreliable midfield combination, while ensuring Johnston and Forrest are involved through knock-downs and offloads, rather than through McGregor’s transitional passes. It would be surprise approach, without pretext or planning, but it’s rogue enough to work in a fixture this chaotic, and might be the perfect way to cope against – and exploit – Rangers’ determination to press.


Rocko’s analysis of the above:
Decent article. I think the Sevco writer is better than the Celtic chap and that’s evident in how it concentrates on what Sevco can do to Celtic.

It has the Bayo point at the end but I think it misses the fact that Johnston was the lone striker in January which meant we had no out ball at all really. Even with balls into feet he struggled that day, I would expect him to do much better tomorrow, though he won’t have to lead the line thankfully. And Burke was just abysmal in the May match.

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