But we’ve heard all this before about Ireland in 2007 and in 2014 and 2015. We heard it in 2009 after Ireland finally won the Grand Slam and then beat South Africa at Croke Park in November. Ireland were supposedly in the top three in the world all these times and were going to do the devil and all in the following World Cups. It never happened.
The Six Nations is an annual tournament in which pretty much always, for whatever reason, ie. injuries, form or disorganisation etc, at least two of the big four teams are well below their best and teams often aren’t that bothered about losing matches. The nature of the tournament is that championship wins are spread around the different teams.
Gatty, quite obviously, wasn’t that bothered about Wales losing to England and Ireland this year, he knew Wales were below strength and was looking at performances and developing new players with a view to the World Cup.
Eddie Jones will probably be a bit more worried than Gatty after England’s defeats in Edinburgh and Paris, but he won a Grand Slam two years ago and winning another one isn’t that big a deal for England. He was brought in specifically to get England challenging for the World Cup and that’s what he’ll be judged on.
This year, England and Wales were badly affected by a hangover from the British Loins tour in a way that Ireland weren’t. France have showed some improvement this year but they’re only gradually awakening from their longest slumber in living memory.
As has been pointed out ad nauseum, the IRFU do a better job than the English, French or Welsh in managing their players throughout the season which means Ireland have managed to remain pretty consistent year on year. But I think this misleads a lot of Irish rugby supporters.
The World Cup is a totally different ball game. There is a long lead in time from the end of the previous season in May and other teams for once have an opportunity to really rest their players and get them right, so the advantage Ireland generally have during a normal season goes out the window.
On what basis are Ireland 5/1 to win the World Cup and Wales 20/1? Those are laughable odds which don’t reflect reality at all.
Australia, South Africa, Argentina, Wales and France all generally up their game significantly when the World Cup comes around.
But Ireland have never raised their game significantly at a World Cup, in fact they’ve generally underperformed, sometimes disastrously. That’s not a coincidence, it’s an established pattern, tournament after tournament.
At the next World Cup, it’ll likely be Ireland v South Africa in the quarter-final. South Africa have just appointed Rassie Erasmus, who is an excellent coach, so they are only going to improve significantly over the next 18 months. Even under South Africa’s previous lame duck coach Allister Coetzee, they still managed to beat Ireland in a three match test series in 2016.
Would anybody put much money on Ireland beating a rejuvenated South Africa in a World Cup quarter-final? Nah, neither would I.
What Irish players would make a world XV? How many even made the British Loins XV?
Beyond Sexton, Murray and maybe O’Mahony and Furlong, who is true world class?