Soccer Tactics Thread

The latest article from Jonathon Wilson, this time on the Diamond formation in midfield.

The Question: Is the midfield diamond here to stay and how do you counter it?

It’s been adopted by Chelsea and Inter, but will this curious tactic stand the test of time in its latest inception?

After years of being out of fashion in western Europe, the midfield diamond is back. Chelsea have rumbled to three straight league victories at the start of the season, despite pundits pointing out their lack of width, and wondering just how effective they can continue to be. Internazionale manager Jose Mourinho, who is regarded in the UK as a high priest of 4-3-3, reverted to 4-4-2 with a diamond midfield during his side’s 1-1 draw against Bari at the weekend. Previously its popularity has proved fleeting - will this time be any different?

A history lessonThe diamond is curious in that it emerged piecemeal over time; it is not part of the grand sweep of tactical history. It never seems to have been anybody’s big idea, but was rather a bi-product of other forces and, generally speaking, it has never hung around for long, which suggests it may have limited applicability. The first team self-consciously to arrange their midfield four with one deep, one creating and two shuttling seems to have been Flamengo, where it began as an expedient compromise in a process that began shortly before the second world war.

As part of his plans to develop the club, Flamengo’s president Jos Bastos Padilha sought a European coach. He found one in the Hungarian Dori Kurschner, who was only too glad to escape anti-Semitism in his homeland. He arrived in Rio de Janeiro in 1937, but his attempts to introduce the W-M (3-2-2-3) were scuppered by a football culture suspicious of anything that might stifle natural creativity and improvisation.

Players, fans and journalists were openly mocking, their doubts fanned into rebellion by the assistant coach, Flavio Costa, who had been moved aside to make way for Kurschner. Having finished second in the Carioca championship in 1937, Flamengo lost 2-0 to Vasco da Gama in the opening game of the following season, the inaugural match at Padilha’s new Estadio da Gavea, and Kurschner was sacked. After a brief time at Botafogo, he contracted a virus and died in 1941.

Costa, meanwhile, resumed his role as Flamengo coach. He had slowly become convinced of the merits of the W-M, but having been so scornful, could not admit as much, so claimed to have come up with a whole new system – the diagonal. Essentially, he took the central square of the W-M and tipped it so it became a rhombus, with the inside-left advanced just behind the centre-forward in the ponta da lanca (point of the lance) position Pele would make so famous, the inside-right a little deeper, the left-half a little deeper again, and the right-half sitting just in front of the back three (or of course, the formation could be flipped on its y-axis to make the right side more attacking).

Of course, even within the W-M, it had been common for one of the inside-forwards to be more attacking, or one of the wing-halves to be more defensive – at Arsenal in the 1930s for instance, the left-half Wilf Copping played deep, allowing Jack Crayston, the right-half, more licence. But Costa formalised it, and as Flamengo were successful, his rhombus midfield spread. Gradually, though, the rhombus was tipped a little more, until 3-1-2-1-3 became 4-2-4, the system with which Brazil won the World Cup in 1958.

The diamond then disappeared from view, only springing up again in the sixties. It became common within the 4-2-4 for one of the midfielders to sit, as cover in front of the back four – Antonio Rattin of Argentina being a fine early example. Gradually, forwards began to drop deeper. Argentina, reacting to the shock of being beaten 6-1 by Czechoslovakia at the 1958 World Cup by experimenting with defensive tactics, were among the pioneers. Their obsession with the No10 remained, though, and so by the 1966 World Cup, with Rattin holding, and Ermindo Onega operating as a playmaker, the diamond was beginning to re-emerge.

England lost 1-0 to a defensive Argentina in the Maracana in 1964 in the Mundialito, a four-team tournament also including Brazil and Portugal. Alf Ramsey would never have admitted it, but that defeat seems to have persuaded him down the route of pragmatism. He abandoned 4-2-4 for 4-3-3, before ultimately adopting what Nobby Stiles termed a 4-1-3-2. The Manchester United midfielder anchored in front of the back four, with Alan Ball, Bobby Charlton and Martin Peters all given licence to push on and join the front two.

That formation, a close cousin of the diamond, had already been common for a couple of years in the USSR, where Viktor Maslov, developing the notion of pressing at Dynamo Kyiv, deployed the veteran defender Vasyl Turyanchyk to ‘break the waves’ in front of the back four. In a team in which every player had defensive duties, only Andriy Biba, Maslov said, “retained the full rights of democracy”. He was, in other words, the equivalent of the Argentinian playmaker, given a free role in what was effectively a 4-3-1-2.

It is that shape, with a holder and a playmaker flanked by two shuttling players – carilleros, as they are known in Argentina, the only country, seemingly, to give the role a specific name – that really forms the basis of the modern conception of the diamond. Strangely, though, only Argentina adopted it on a wide scale. Elsewhere a club side may play a diamond for a year or two, but it is a fad that soon fades; in the Argentinian league, although there are experiments with double-playmakers (such as Huracan played last season: a 4-3-2-1) or two holders (which I’ve seen described, rather neatly, as a double-Pacman), 4-3-1-2 remains the default formation.

Problems with the diamondTo European eyes, unused to seeing an artist provided with a three-man midfield stage on which to perform, that is, at least initially, refreshing. Argentina’s historical notion of the default way of playing, equally, with its ready division into playmakers and holders has equipped them well for the modern trend towards four-band formations (which makes it all the more frustrating that Diego Maradona seems so reluctant to use one with the national team).

But there are difficulties. The first game I saw in Argentina was River Plate against Independiente in November 2007. Both teams played 4-3-1-2, and both teams cancelled; each seemingly waiting for their respective playmakers, Ariel Ortega and Daniel Montenegro, to do something. Neither did, and the game ended in a tame 1-1 draw that probably would have slipped from the memory had it not been my first visit to the Monumental. It was admittedly, a mid-table fixture, but the wider point was clear: the danger of playing through one creative source (in River’s case in that game, bafflingly, for Diego Buonanotte was playing as a support striker and surely could have dropped deeper), is that a single stream is easily dammed. The diamond’s lack of width only exacerbates the problem.

You wonder as well whether Argentina remains so caught up in the debate over the viability of the playmaker, and with producing creators (and thus Pacmen to stop them) that other areas get rather overlooked. Playing a 4-2-3-1 – and ignoring the spats that have ruled certain players out - Argentina would have, by some distance, the best middle five in the world (two of Javier Mascherano, Esteban Cambiasso, Sebastian Battaglia and Fernando Gago; three of Leo Messi, Sergio Aguero, Carlos Tevez, Juan Romn Riquelme, or even Javier Pastore), but are deficient in every other area.

My own doubts about the diamond crystallised one night in Belgrade in October 2002. Yugoslavia had played a diamond against Italy the previous Saturday, and had succeeded in frustrating them, drawing 1-1. They set out with the same shape that Wednesday against Finland, and found themselves outplayed in the first half as Finland’s two wide midfielders in an orthodox 4-4-2, Mika Nurmela and Joonas Kolkka, revelled in the open spaces on the flanks. Yugoslavia may have enjoyed the bulk of possession, but they became so paranoid about their vulnerability to wide counters that they were able to do little with it, and were fortunate still to be level at half-time. A quick switch to 3-5-2 soon solved that (and freed Sinisa Mihajlovic - playing by that stage of his career as a centre-back - from actually having to do any defending), and they won 2-0.

Can Chelsea make it work in the Premier League?Given the tendency within the diamond to predictability, it seemed to me fine as a defensive formation, but of less use to a team who needed to take the initiative. Gradually, though, particularly from watching Argentinian football, I’ve become less sceptical. The issue really is the carilleros. If they get too narrow, as Yugoslavia did that night, then a team is vulnerable wide, and its numerical advantage in the centre is outweighed by the fact that everybody is packed into so tight a space that passing options become limited.

If they can retain some width – and it is notable that Chelsea this season have twice in the league, and in the Community Shield, used Florent Malouda, a winger, as the left carillero – and so ensure the system is a 4-3-1-2, then that is less of a problem. If those carilleros and/or the full-backs (and Chelsea have two – three if you include Yuri Zhirkov – attacking full-backs) can also get forward, given confidence to do so by the central midfield holder, that relieves some of the creative burden from the player at the tip of the diamond.

Chelsea also have the variation offered by the asymmetry introduced by Guus Hiddink. The second striker plays slightly to the right of Drogba – that was clear when Kalou partnered him at Sunderland, and still evident in Anelka’s role at Fulham – which encourages the left carrillero to advance, something that is difficult for orthodox symmetrical formations to pick up, and which stimulates a very necessary flexibility.

How to smash the diamondSo, how can the diamond be countered? The lack of width remains the flaw, and the key is to try to shift the battle from the centre to the flanks. Hull rode their luck to an extent on the opening day, but it is no coincidence that it was their 4-5-1 rather than the 4-4-2 of Sunderland and Fulham that came closest to stopping Chelsea.

Midfielders played wide and high stop the advances of the full-backs, while a hard-tackling trio in the centre will at least make Chelsea fight for possession, while shielding the back four when Chelsea have possession. In addition, a team’s wide midfielders block Chelsea’s full-backs, their own full-backs should be free to either become an extra man in midfield or provide additional defensive cover.

The narrowness of the diamond is a flaw, but no system is without them. The issue really is how many sides are able to engage them those wide areas. So far the inherent weakness in the system has been over-ridden by Chelsea’s dominance in the centre. It’s all very well pointing at where the space may be, but largely irrelevant – from an attacking point of view – if you can’t get the ball, and by playing with, effectively, four central midfielders, Chelsea are ensuring they enjoy the bulk of possession.

Their football may never produce the geometric rhapsodies of, say, Arsenal at their best, but certainly while Didier Drogba remains in form (and in the country: he, Michael Essien, Salomon Kalou and Mikel Jon Obi will all be in Angola in January for the African Cup of Nations), Chelsea look capable of overwhelming opponents, that frontline of attack backed up by a prodigious second wave from midfield.

Jonathan Wilson’s offering today on the 4-2-1-3 formation. Hmmm:

The Question: Is 4-2-1-3 the future?Although little different from 4-2-3-1, it is significant if the central creator plays deeper, for a whole number of reasons

Evolution never stops. As the World Cup showed, 4‑2‑3‑1 has come to replace 4‑4‑2 as the universal default (18 of the 32 teams played some form of 4‑2‑3‑1 at some stage, with another three fielding a 4‑4‑2 that perhaps should have become 4‑2‑3‑1) so the system at the very highest level has already begun to mutate. Spain, by the end of the World Cup, had followed what Barcelona did at times last season, what Arsenal seemed to be reaching towards, and set up in a 4‑2‑1‑3.

Now clearly the distinction between 4‑2‑3‑1 and 4‑2‑1‑3 is minimal. It entails nothing more than the central player in the trident pulling a little deeper and the two wide players advancing slightly. In practice, as the wide players look to escape the attentions of full-backs, their depth of position may not alter greatly, but to refer to the system as 4‑2‑1‑2‑1 and start introducing a fifth band is probably to begin to confuse the simplicity that gives value to the practice of assigning numerical codes. The shape, if anything, resembles a diamond sitting on a plinth. As I’ve said before, the designations are of course crude, but they have a use in providing a broad explicatory template.

The key differences in the formations
Yet it is significant if that central creator plays deeper, for a whole number of reasons. To begin with, if the playmaker operates close to the holding pair, the team cannot be “broken” into attacking and defensive sections as Holland and Argentina were at the World Cup (which is an advantage for those sides that believe in a possession-based approach). By definition, by being only a short pass away from the creator, the two midfield holders are more involved in the attacking aspect and at least one of them can be encouraged to press forwards at times, as Xabi Alonso did for Spain, and as Seydou Keita does for Barcelona. So immediately the range of attacking options is increased.

There is also an impact on the creator himself. Playing a touch deeper offers him three advantages. He is nearer the two holding players, who can be considered his protectors, which makes it harder physically to intimidate him, while his more withdrawn position means he is farther from the opposing holding midfielders, harder to pick up and thus likely to have more time on the ball (not that Xavi or Cesc Fábregas really needs more time on the ball; one of the joys of watching Spain or Barcelona recently, or Holland or West Germany of the 70s, is their willingness to give the ball to a man under pressure, trusting his technique to release it and change the angle of attack).

The creator is also more likely to receive the ball facing goal – or at least to have time to turn so he is facing goal – with three team-mates ahead of him (as opposed to one ahead and two alongside) and the potential of others breaking from deep, and so he becomes something more like an old-fashioned playmaker than a second striker who tends to receive the ball with his back to goal. That, in theory, should make the transfer of ball from back to front quicker and thus make a side more penetrative (the example of Chile’s 3‑3‑1‑3 at the World Cup suggested that leaving players perpetually high up the pitch helps in terms of pressing and regaining the ball quickly, but can lead to the retention of possession at the expense of penetration). As Juan Román Riquelme points out, a playmaker is only effective if he has players available for whom to make the play.

Which teams have adopted this tactic?
Just as significant, though, is the effect withdrawing the central creator has on the two wide forwards. Rather than having to stay wide to offer a passing option and so as not to intrude on the central player’s space, they can drift infield, as Pedro and Andrés Iniesta did regularly for Spain, and as both and Lionel Messi do for Barcelona. That draws them away from the full-back into more awkward areas, and opens space on the overlap for attacking full-backs, who are liberated by the presence of four essentially defensive central players (two centre-backs and two holding midfielders), plus the creator, who can tuck in if necessary.

If Iniesta is included on the left, Messi on the right and Xavi in the middle, Barcelona effectively have a trident of playmakers, all able to interchange and all operating in positions that drag opponents out of their comfortable lines. Or, a more natural forward can be played in one of the wide positions – David Villa, perhaps, with Zlatan Ibrahimovic as the centre-forward – which offers effectively two playmakers (one of whom, Messi, is devastating as a forward anyway), with a central striker adept with his back to goal, and a forward, one of the best finishers in the world, cutting in from the left, able to take advantage of the space available on the diagonal. And all that with Dani Alves and Maxwell overlapping from full-back.

Although Arsenal seem likely to attempt something similar this season, with Fábregas in the Xavi role, backed up by Abou Diaby and Alex Song, Andrei Arshavin and Robin van Persie wide, and Marouane Chamakh offering some muscle at centre-forward, it may prove a formation of limited application, purely because the demands on the playmaker are so great: he must combine the ability to see and execute with at least some of the physicality of a central midfielder, even with two protectors. But when a team has a player like that, 4‑2‑1‑3 may be the way to get the best out of him.

I tend to like his stuff but I think some of it is a little forced and that’s an example. There is some reference at the end to Messi playing deeper as a second playmaker but that happens very regularly and really doesn’t make Barca a 4-2-1-3 at all.

While Spain did play this type of formation it was much closer to a 4-3-3 than say a 4-2-3-1 that Germany played so I’d question its evolution. Wilson is arguing that Xavi playing deeper opened up other avenues for the rest of the front 3 but he played so deep, and always has, that it was more of a player advancing from midfield to link with the forwards than an attacking player dropping back to pull the strings from there. And the same applies to Cesc at Arsenal.

While Spain were the best team in the World Cup I’d argue that was as much to do with their personnel as their system. Both Germany and Holland played better than expected with a 4-2-3-1 and suggesting Holland were “broken” into attacking and defensive components is a little unfair on a team who were negative in some games but comfortable in most and outclassed in none.

Yes, my ‘hmmm’ in the first line was a reflection of my not really being in agreement with what he’s putting forward in that piece. He has written some very good pieces though.

I wrote an article on the Bish bash bosh formation but pissed on it and sold it to Arsene Wenger,

A disappointing enough piece from Jonathan Wilson here. No answers really. To my mind a no. 10 and a playmaker are different animals too.

You didn’t understand this two weeks ago when you were advocating Liverpool buying Riquelme to play in the deeplying play making role.

FAO the all seeing eye

What are your thoughts on the False Number Nine, mate???

Wilson’s best article for a while:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2010/dec/22/the-question-how-tactics-develop-2010

The Question: How did tactics develop in 2010?

The World Cup was merely reflective rather than innovative, showing how international football has been eclipsed

In August, I wrote a piece for the Guardian’s pre-season supplement in which I speculated that, after the World Cup and Internazionale’s success in the Champions League, we may be about to witness a return to reactive football. Since when we’ve seen probably the most attacking Premier League in living memory, which goes to show two things: first, never believe anything anybody writes when trying to predict the future of football; and second, the World Cup is no longer a bellwether.

That, perhaps, has been the most shocking aspect of the year; the realisation of just how far international football lags behind club football. It used to be that the World Cup served almost as a conference at which delegates arrived from all round the world and exchanged ideas: Brazil suddenly sprang 4-2-4 on the world at the 1958 tournament, for instance; England showed the effectiveness of 4-4-2 in 1966; Total Football, although Ajax had already won three European Cups, caught the imagination in 1974; and the success of Argentina in 1986 marked the beginning of the development of three at the back. The main lesson of this summer’s tournament, though, was that 4-4-2 has been superseded by 4-2-3-1 as the universal default, something that has been apparent in club football for several years.

The formation was blamed by many for the defensiveness of the tournament, but that is to put the cart before the horse. Formations are neutral; it is their employment that gives them positive and negative characteristics. Numerous coaches preferred 4-2-3-1 because they were already set on playing defensively and it allowed them to flood the midfield while still posing a level of attacking threat through the line of three; but if the line of three consists of two wingers/wide forwards and a playmaker, it can be exhilarating, though if the three are deep-lying, it isn’t.

The question then is why the mind‑set was so negative, and the worrying thing is that it is probably inherent in international football. With limited time available to develop mutual understanding, most coaches focus on developing defensive cohesion. Equally, the limited number of games played in international football – around a dozen a season, of which half are friendlies – means the stakes are higher for each, and that makes managers more cautious. The result is coaches packing men behind the ball and hoping for an individual to change the game.

At the World Cup, only Spain – who have had a stable side for three years and whose players are drawn largely from two clubs and so have an understanding – and Chile – who were coached by the idiosyncratic and brilliant Marcelo Bielsa – were genuinely proactive and, as Arrigo Sacchi said, it is proactivity that makes for true greatness. Even Germany, for all the goals they scored, were essentially reactive, a very good counterattacking team. Most disappointing were the sides with a great tradition of proactive football, such as Brazil and the Netherlands, who relied on a solid base and hoped individuals could turn the game their way.

There were those who accused Spain of being boring, but what were they supposed to do when opponents sat 10 men behind the ball against them? As Peter Taylor once said in answer to criticism of Nottingham Forest: “A team cannot be boring if it has the ball.” They weren’t taking it into the corners or time-wasting; they were passing it around waiting for the opposition to try and get it back, something only Chile really attempted. The general negativity, resulting in a lack of quality and drama, is a serious issue for the World Cup. There hasn’t been a great game since 1998 – Italy’s win over Germany in the 2006 semi-finals might just about qualify as very good – and if that trend continues you wonder how long public interest will hold up.

What the World Cup does do, though, is to reflect pre-existing trends. The decline of 4-4-2 has probably been overstated – although when Michael Owen starts publicly doubting it, you know its days of absolute hegemony are over – but the use of it now is more knowing and it, too, has frequently become a defensive tactic, with two banks of four sitting deep, looking to hit two forward men with long direct passes. Even when used in a more progressive way – as, for instance, Manchester United have deployed it this season (although notably not against Arsenal or Manchester City), there has often been one striker dropping off and one of the midfielders pushing on to make a de facto fourth band, three bands having become too few with the stretching of the game brought about by the liberalisation of the offside law.

Playing three central defenders, having all but vanished with the emergence of lone striker formations, is now back as a defensive strategy, offering the security of two spare men. Uruguay used it against France at the World Cup and Algeria did so against England, while Estudiantes effectively secured the Argentinian apertura by drawing 0-0 away to second-placed Velez Sarsfield with a defensive 3-4-2-1. In the Champions League, Rangers, similarly, stymied opponents with a 5-4-1 and might, with slightly better luck and better finishing at home against Valencia, have taken second place in their group behind Manchester United.

Three at the back has also become a holding position for sides with attacking full-backs, something Chelsea began doing under Luiz Felipe Scolari, with Mikel Jon Obi often dropping in between the two central defenders as José Bosingwa and Ashley Cole pressed on. Mexico did something similar at the World Cup, but it is Barcelona who have perfected the system, Sergio Busquets regularly sitting deep between Carles Puyol and Gerard Piqué to allow Dani Alves and Maxwell the freedom to attack, providing width to outflank sides that sit deep against them. Perhaps Spain could have tried something similar with Sergio Ramos and Joan Capdevila at the World Cup, but such ploys take time to effect.

Barcelona also show the effectiveness of two of the other tactical trends in club football: the false nine and the inverted winger. Again, their absence at national level probably suggests the relative lack of sophistication in the international game. When Lionel Messi plays in the middle of a front three, he persistently drops off, leaving David Villa and Pedro to cut in from wide positions, so they are perpetually working on a diagonal, operating in the space between centre-back and full-back. When it works, as it has done over the past few weeks, it is devastating, and the 5-0 win over Real Madrid is likely to stand in their history as Milan’s 5-0 victory over Real Madrid in the 1989 European Cup semi-final does in theirs.

That game was a joy, not least because eight of the 11 players who started for Barça had grown up through their academy (which does raise the question of how they have managed to accumulate quite so much debt). The greatest football is still that played by teams that have been nurtured and developed from an early age, so that players have an almost organic understanding of where they should move and where their team-mates are moving, and, in a world of billionaire owners looking for shop-bought success, that is a consoling thought.

Even Roman Abramovich seems to have realised that, if it is true that he approach Txiki Begiristain and asked him to turn Chelsea into Barcelona. Whether the Russian has the patience to wait the decade or so it would take for an ethos as strong as Barça’s to be instilled is debatable. At national level, meanwhile, the sort of time it takes to create a team like Barça’s simply doesn’t exist. If there has been one lesson from 2010, it is that the gulf between club and international football is vast, and getting wider.

4-4-2

Get it up the opposition box

simple

Mourinho/Prozone/Amisco tactics preparation for a Chelsea v Newcastle game a while back attached. Decent level of detail and interesting read.

Not tactics but couldn’t find a decent home for this and it probably didn’t warrant its own thread…it’s information on goalkeeper performance in the EPL, La Liga and Bundesliga this season.

Goals conceded versus shots on target etc.

Ben Foster, David De Gea and Joe Hart come out on top and Scott Carson is unsurprisingly out on his own as being the shittest shotstopper:

http://blog.statdna…kicks-more.aspx

Wasting possession: the statistical argument for using short goal kicks more

As I didn’t personally grow up as a soccer player or fan, I was not exposed to a lot of the conventional wisdoms of soccer players, fans and coaches. Because of that perhaps, there’s an aspect of soccer that’s always seemed a bit off to me: the long aerial goal kick. The theory behind it of course, I understand. By kicking the ball long, you avoid a perhaps disasterous turnover of the ball in your own end and also create a potential quick attacking opportunity if a flick-on is accompanied by a couple of good bounces. However, the fact that you’re in effect creating a 50/50 ball in the midfield off of a set piece with no pressure on the set piece taker has always bothered me. But the fact that 90% of goal kicks in the Premier League were hit as long aerial balls made me think that perhaps I was missing something.

We decided to analyze our data and see what our probability models would say about predicted goals scored and conceded due to goal kicks through the air compared to those on the ground. What we found is pretty interesting - teams could add 1-2 net goals per year by booting the ball through the air less.

The analysis is pretty simple. First we looked at who has the next outright possession on aerial goal kicks - by possession we don’t include headed passes, flick-ons, clearances or deflections as a possession, only if a player actually gains control of the ball, strikes a one time pass or a set piece (including throw-in) is awarded. What we found matched my intuition, in the EPL 49% of the aerial goal kicks were possessed by the offense and 51% by the defense.

So indeed a 50/50 ball. When the offense did get possession, they had a slightly more favorable opportunity in general than an average midfield ball touch - roughly 2% chance of scoring within a possession vs about 1.5% for an average midfield touch.

We then looked at the 10% of goal kicks that were passed on the ground for a slower, less direct attack. Of these, in 93% of the occassions the team taking the goal kick was able to get the ball across the midfield stripe (or further), before losing possession. We can assume that these possessions had the average midfield goal scoring probability of 1.5%. This gives an advantage in terms of goal scoring probability to the long aerial goal kick, but not nearly enough to make up for losing possession 50% of the time.

We looked at the actual (instead of predicted) results from our game sample and found that goal kicks on the ground scored goals at twice the rate of long aerial goal kicks. Meanwhile, goal kicks through the air in our sample yielded opponent goals 1.1% of the time when the ball was turned over; the 23 turnovers that occured before reaching the midfield on goal kicks passed on the ground, none of them turned into goals (our expectation model would have predicted only 0.46 goals, so having 0 goals was the most likely result).

So if a team were to go to as much as 100% ground goal kicks (which we would not suggest), our numbers show you could add roughly 2-4 net goals per season. However, if the opposition knew that you were going to never hit long aerial goal kicks, they would surely change their defensive startegy and probably to your detriment. Thus it seems reasonable that some randomization between goal kicks through the air and on the ground is in order. The exact % in the air and on the ground would take into consideration factors specific to the team (for example, quality of the midfield of how far the keeper can kick the ball in the air). It seems to me though that 90% air and 10% ground, the current average, is probably off the mark, especially for teams that have solid midfielders.

In our EPL sample, the team that used the indirect goal kicks most was Manchester United, with 76% passed through the air. Meanwhile Newcastle used the long goal kick nearly 100% of the time.

I wonder in the end if this is some extreme form of risk aversity. No one will ever forgot the one goal that resulted from a bad turnover off of a short goal kick, but they most likely will not remember that the long possession that ended in a goal had resulted from a short goal kick.

Meant to post this a few days ago. It’s from the Telegraph but it’s really an interview with Villas- Boas by a student in Porto. Interesting stuff in it.

GLOSSARY

								         							<strong>Circulation:</strong> the retention of possession by passing from player to									         							player without taking risks.									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>Vertical:</strong> Up and down the pitch, from goal to goal.									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>Horizontal</strong>: Across the pitch, from touchline to touchline.									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>Transition:</strong> When possession is regained, the opportunity to									         							counter-attack.									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>Low block:</strong> A team that defends with two deep banks of defenders and									         							midfielders. Mourinho’s succinct term for it was “parking the bus”.									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>A FOOTBALL PHILOSOPHY </strong>									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>AVB:</strong> There are more spaces in football than people think. Even if you									         							play against a low block team, you immediately get half of the pitch.									         							
								         							
								         							And after that, in attacking midfield, you can provoke the opponent with the									         							ball, provoke him to move forward or sideways and open up a space. But many									         							players can’t understand the game.									         							
								         							
								         							They can’t think about or read the game. Things have become too easy for									         							football players: high salaries, a good life, with a maximum of five hours									         							work a day and so they can’t concentrate, can’t think about the game.									         							
								         							
								         							Barcelona’s players are completely the opposite. Their players are permanently									         							thinking about the game, about their movement, about how to provoke their									         							opponent with the position of the ball.									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>DS: </strong>Does a top team need to dominate possession to win a match?									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>AVB: </strong>Not necessarily, for a simple reason. In Portugal we have this									         							idea of match control based on ball circulation.									         							
								         							
								         							That’s what we in Portugal want to achieve in our football: top teams that									         							dominate by ball possession, that push the opponent back to their area.									         							
								         							
								         							If you go find the top English teams pre-Arsene Wenger they tell you how to									         							control a match in the opposite way without much ball possession, direct									         							football, searching for the second ball.									         							
								         							
								         							Maybe now, controlling possession is the reference point for a top team, but									         							that happens because they have much more quality players than the other									         							teams, so it would be wrong not to take advantage of those individual									         							skills.									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>DS:</strong> One thing Louis Van Gaal says is that you can control a match									         							offensively and defensively but you must keep in control defensively you can									         							also determine where your opponent will play on the pitch.									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>AVB:</strong> Yes, I agree. In that sense, yes. But the idea we now have in									         							Portugal of match control is about having more ball possession than the									         							opponent.									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>DS</strong>: Exactly, but match control has to result in scoring chances. That’s									         							the only way it makes sense. There are teams that have like 60 per cent ball									         							possession and that results in nothing at all.									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>AVB:</strong> That’s it. Match control always has to have a purpose, a main									         							goal.									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>DS:</strong> And in that concept of match control, are there any sectors of the									         							team more important than others?									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>AVB:</strong> Well, that depends on the mechanisms you want to use defensively									         							and offensively. Let me give you an example.									         							
								         							
								         							Top teams nowadays don’t look to vertical penetration from their midfielders									         							because the coach prefers them to stand in position (horizontally) and then									         							use the movement of the wingers as the main source to create chances.									         							
								         							
								         							So, you, as a coach, have to know exactly what kind of players you have and									         							analyse the squad to decide how you want to organise your team offensively.									         							And then, there are maybe some players more important than others.									         							
								         							
								         							For instance, many teams play with defensive pivots, small defensive									         							midfielders.									         							
								         							
								         							And, except Andrea Pirlo and Xabi Alonso, and maybe Esteban Cambiasso and one									         							or two more, they are players that are limited to the horizontal part of the									         							game: they keep passing the ball from one side to another, left or right,									         							without any kind of vertical penetration.									         							
								         							
								         							Can’t you use your defensive midfielder to introduce a surprise factor in the									         							match? Let’s say, first he passes horizontally and then, suddenly, vertical									         							penetration?									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>THE INFLUENCE OF JOSE MOURINHO </strong>									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>AVB:</strong> There has been an evolution in football language and football									         							analysis since Mourinho started to coach. There’s a different way of looking									         							at a match, a different way of doing technical analysis.									         							
								         							
								         							People have started to look beyond the formation, and started talking about									         							the dynamics within the team and how they’re more important than the team’s									         							formation.									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>TALKING TACTICS </strong>									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>DS:</strong> What’s the difference between playing with three or four									         							midfielders?									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>AVB: </strong>Rafa Benitez created a 4-4-2 much more dynamic than the usual									         							English 4-4-2. Because he introduced speed in ball possession, he gave it									         							variation between vertical and horizontal passes.									         							
								         							
								         							The usual classic English 4-4-2 is more basic: a penetrating midfielder and									         							another one that stays in position; a winger who moves inside and another									         							one who stays wide; a full back who overlaps and another one who covers the									         							defence.									         							
								         							
								         							If you talk about a 4-4-2 diamond, that’s totally different. You play with two									         							pivotal midfielders, one defensive and one offensive, so it creates many									         							more problems for your opponent.									         							
								         							
								         							Defensively, though, you take a great risk of ceding too much space because									         							you are very central and you lack width. You have to create compensation									         							mechanisms.									         							
								         							
								         							Me, I’m a 4-3-3 fan, not 4-4-2. I don’t see how a classic 4-4-2 could work in									         							the Spanish league, where every team plays 4-3-3 and the superiority of the									         							midfield has become crucial.									         							
								         							
								         							What Mourinho did with Chelsea with his 4-3-3 was something never seen before:									         							a dynamic structure, aggressive, with aggressive transitions...and then									         							there is Barca’s 4-3-3, which wouldn’t work in England, because of the									         							higher risk of losing the ball.									         							
								         							
								         							If you have midfielders like Frank Lampard or Steven Gerrard you don’t want									         							your forwards to come and play between lines, because Lampard and Gerrard									         							have a large field of action and very often move in to those spaces.									         							
								         							
								         							Lampard was often irritated with Didier Drogba because Drogba wanted to									         							receive the ball there but then, amazingly, his first touch was poor, so he									         							lost the ball and we were exposed to a transition from the opponent.									         							
								         							
								         							So we had to limit Drogba from going there and ask him to play deeper.									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>BARCELONA’S TACTICAL MASTERPLAN </strong>									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>DS:</strong> Is good ball circulation essential in the attacking organisation of									         							a top team?									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>AVB: </strong>Well, it’s essential to every team. Every team want to score.									         							That’s the purpose of the game. Barcelona play horizontally only after a									         							vertical pass. See how the centre backs go out with ball, how they construct									         							the play. They open up (moving wider), so that the right or left-back can									         							join the midfield line.									         							
								         							
								         							Guardiola has talked about it: the centre backs provoke the opponent, invite									         							them forward then, if the opponent applies quick pressure the ball goes to									         							the other central defender, and this one makes a vertical pass.									         							
								         							
								         							Not to the midfielders, who have their back turned to the ball, but to those									         							moving between lines, Andres Iniesta or Lionel Messi, or even directly to									         							the striker.									         							
								         							
								         							Then they play the second ball with short lay-offs, either to the wingers who									         							have cut inside or the midfielders, who now have the game in front of them.									         							
								         							
								         							They have an enormous capacity not to lose the ball, to do things with an									         							unbelievable precision.									         							
								         							
								         							Another thing about Barcelona, there is always a full-back who arrives earlier									         							in the attack, the other stays in position initially but then progressively									         							joins the attack, as the ball circulates on the other side of the pitch, so									         							he can be a surprise element. When you least expect he arrives. He chooses									         							the perfect timing for the overlap.									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>DS:</strong> Louis Van Gaal says a vertical pass is not a risk, but a horizontal									         							pass is because when you make a horizontal pass you are much more open, more									         							exposed in case you lose the ball.									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>AVB: </strong>Yes, that’s right. And there are differences between a horizontal									         							pass and a slightly diagonal pass.									         							
								         							
								         							Something that used to happen a lot in England, when teams played 4-4-2, was									         							that the central midfielders exchanged the ball between them in parallel									         							passes so what we did with Lampard, or Liverpool did with Gerrard, was to									         							try to cut into that space between the two midfielders with fast movement									         							from Lampard.									         							
								         							
								         							If they got the ball there, there were already two opponents eliminated in the									         							attacking transition.									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>DEALING WITH DEFENSIVE TEAMS</strong>									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>DS:</strong> How do you attack a team that plays with an ultra-low block?									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>AVB:</strong> Let’s see. Juventus play with an ultra-low block, they don’t put									         							any pressure on you high up the field. Nowadays most teams don’t. It can									         							limit you because they control the space behind them with perfect offside									         							timing.									         							
								         							
								         							They limit your vertical passes as well because they are all grouped within 30									         							or 40 metres, completely closed in two lines of four plus the two forwards.									         							
								         							
								         							So you start constructing “short”, begin the attacking process with your									         							centre-backs of full-backs carrying the ball forward to the midfield area									         							but then you want to pass the ball to the midfielders and you don’t know how									         							to do it, because there is an ultra-limited space, everything is completely									         							closed.									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>DS:</strong> So what to do?									         							
								         							
								         							<strong>AVB:</strong> You have to provoke them with the ball, which is something most									         							teams can’t do. I cannot understand it. It’s an essential factor in the									         							game.									         							
								         							
								         							At this time of ultra-low defensive block teams, you will have to learn how to									         							provoke them with the ball. It’s the ball they want, so you have to defy									         							them using the ball as a carrot.									         							
								         							
								         							Louis Van Gaal’s idea is one of continuous circulation, one side to the other,									         							until the moment that, when you change direction, an space opens up inside									         							and you go through it.									         							
								         							
								         							So, he provokes the opponent with horizontal circulation of the ball, until									         							the moment that the opponent will start to pressure out of despair. What I									         							believe in is to challenge the rival by driving the ball into him.									         							
								         							
								         							That’s something Pep Guardiola believes is decisive. And that’s something that									         							Henk ten Cate also took to Avram Grant’s Chelsea. He took it with him form									         							Frank Rijkaard’s Barcelona. We did it differently at Chelsea under Mourinho.									         							
								         							
								         							Our attacking construction was different, with the ball going directly to the									         							full-backs or midfielders. With Ten Cate, play was started with John Terry									         							or Ricardo Carvalho, to invite the opponent’s pressure. Then you had one									         							less opponent in the next step of construction.

Fascinating stuff.

The bit about the continuous circulation of the ball is interesting. I have remarked before that people go on about Barcelona’s ability to pass the ball being their key strength. If you watch them they rarely pass the ball more that a couple of yards at a time. They are content to keep the ball and when they see the space open, work it through but, crucially, with a short pass. How many times do you watch an EPL side in particular where a defender plays a long-ish ball from defence to around the outside of the opponent’s box to a forward who probably miscontrols and possession is lost? This is one of the reasons against a target man leading the line a la Carroll for Liverpool. It is a Neanderthal way of playing football frankly. Liverpool would be much better served with a loan, mobile striker who likes the ball to his feet, such a Suarez.

John Giles had a similar interview in the past as well. I’ll see if I can dig it out.

[quote=“farmerinthecity, post: 301247”]
Fascinating stuff.

The bit about the continuous circulation of the ball is interesting. I have remarked before that people go on about Barcelona’s ability to pass the ball being their key strength. If you watch them they rarely pass the ball more that a couple of yards at a time. They are content to keep the ball and when they see the space open, work it through but, crucially, with a short pass. [/quote]

the thing about Barcelona is that they have three midfield players in Xavi, inietsa and Busquets along with Messi who can all take the ball on under pressure and pick a pass in ‘traffic’ meaning that it opens up far more space as opposed to a lad who is just knocking it sideways or backwards under little or no pressure, the barca lads really do show and move for the ball and demand it even when being tightly marked and when they have the ball in the opposition’s half it is very seldom static. There are very few in the ELP who would have this trait and one of the few who has is just after leaving to join Barca

its fascinating how much the utilisation of space plays such an important part in the thinking of all great modern football minds-

Yeah - I accept that you need technically very good players to play this system at its best. However it is a very noble system in my view. The term ‘defending by possession’ is very apt.

I also think young players would be better developed in such a system, instead of the long-ish ball tactics of much of the EPL clubs.

Barcelona’s success is their movement and the options they have when on the ball, constant movement and never leaving the player in control in the ball stranded, safe options are always prevalent and when the ball is lost, they have enough players in that vicinity to win it back, almots instantaneously.

Barcelona and Spain are still too cautious with the ball for my liking. Prandelli’s Italy play the most enjoyable brand of football around right now, IMO.

[quote=“farmerinthecity, post: 301247”]This is one of the reasons against a target man leading the line a la Carroll for Liverpool. It is a Neanderthal way of playing football frankly. Liverpool would be much better served with a loan, mobile striker who likes the ball to his feet, such a Suarez.

John Giles had a similar interview in the past as well. I’ll see if I can dig it out.[/quote]

Would it not work better with a striker that you actually own where you can ingrain the philosophy in him rather than a player on loan?