TFK Capitalist Thread

Quantitative easing was found out slightly today for the spoof that it is.

Government bonds bombed at the whim of of one fella in Brussels…madness.

Just launch the fucking helicopters and get it over with. The last play from central bankers and then we can finally relegate them to the place economists go to die. Bastards.

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Hedge funds pulling their money out of DB.
Is Europe about to have it’s Lehman moment?
I can’t imagine the rest of Europe willingly helping the Germans, Draghi would be lynched I’d say if he suggested it.

Saw this posted on twitter the other day - I thought it was fairly informative

How do we make money out of this then?

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This is the mother and father of all bubbles, only 1929 comes close. 2000 was essentially only Internet stocks that were at silly levels, it’s every sector now. We’ve had 6 consequetive quarters of declining earnings, never before in history has that not led to a market crash. “This time is different” is only true until it isn’t.

S&P to below 1000 by mid 2017 is my prediction.

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Wait for the volatility index to invert from contango to backwardation (Contango goes negative on the attached chart). Buy VXX and hold it until the VIX peaks and starts to decline. Buy XIV when VIX goes back to contango. It’s literally free money, but you have to be nimble.

http://vixcentral.com/

Nimble as in days hours or minutes?

You need to watch it like a hawk, as it can reverse positions quicker than a TFK poster.
Generally though once VIX goes into backwardation, it stays there for a while. Go back and look at August last year and January this year.
Proceed with caution, a dead cat bounce can wipe you out quickly.

How have your previous predictions done?

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Allow me.

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No one can predict short term market direction, but my longer term projections are always correct. For example I said earlier this year that the next leg down in equities would be at the end of summer*

  • It’s still summer here, over 30C all week.
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Any chance you could speak in English?

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Not just equities this time either bonds as well. Double bubble.
The market can be wrong longer than you can afford to be is the problem. Could be years before it pops. Party while u can

Buy schadenfreude

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I thought we all partied already?

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There will be some party if German banks collapse.

A Nazi party

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Sterling went haywire last night. Dropped 10% in a minute during Asian trading. Some algorithm gone wrong again no doubt. Almost reached parity with the euro at that stage as well before settling back to 0.89. Great time to go UK side.

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That’s why spreadbetting is a fucking mug’s game. You could have a perfectly reasonable position and a brief market move wipes out your position.