TFK Capitalist Pigs Thread


#2386

I thought a recession was two consecutive quarters of negative growth? Surely Ireland inc is booming at the moment?


#2387

You heard it here first.


#2388

Strong headwinds. If there is an unmanaged no deal Brexit fuck knows what will happen. A weak sterling ain’t good for us.


#2389

2018 or 2019?


#2390

Markets tank after Fed announce rate increase and minor change in their outlook. There is a complete breakdown now between reality (we are going into a recession) and their short term goals (raising rates so they can drop them when a recession is confirmed). Dow has swung from +300 to -350 since Powell started talking. Trump is likely preparing his pink slip.


#2391

Trump apparently giving serious consideration to firing Fed chair Jerome Powell, which he can do under the oft forgotten “for cause” phrase in the Federal Reserve Act. Could liven the markets up a little.


#2392

Do you not think it’d terrify the markets? Political interference in rate setting will not end well


#2393

Could be his dumbest move yet


#2394

Dat wall do


#2395

Markets are already terrified, the Dow is down 1,500 points since Powell started speaking on Wednesday. Although there’s plenty to be worried about, the actions of the Fed are top of the list, not just raising interest rates but unloading their balance sheet. Much of the liquidity in the market since 2015 has been due to QE.

The Fed are repeating the same mistakes they have made throughout their history, blowing asset bubbles by keeping interest rates at or near zero for years, and then waiting far too long to normalize rates and normalizing them at exactly the wrong time. .


#2396

Macron must be shitting himself


#2397

#2398

Apple have just announced that they will miss their Q1 revenue number ($84B versus an expected range of $89-93B), based on weak iPhone sales, particularly in China. Stock is down 8% in the aftermarket.
Expect some carnage tomorrow in the Tech sector.


#2399

Tesla was hammered also. 8% down.


#2400

Very strong US December jobs report, 312K jobs added versus expectations of 180K. That dampens any recession talk for the moment so we should see markets stabilize here and rally at least until earnings season really gets underway.


#2401

the place was hopping when I was over, great news


#2402

A badly needed correction. Valuations were very over stretched but I don’t think we need to fear a global down turn just yet.
Saw something today on apples iPhone sales, they were blaming it on a Chinese slow down but it seems Chinese consumers are just switching to Huwaei and other competitors.
Still think things are expensive though. Particularly tech


#2403

Yeah. Some good value out there now though.


#2404

iphone has slipped to 4th most popular phone in China


#2405

The Chinese know their tech. They won’t be mugged off by the marketing