Kids don’t want their parents knowing what they are doing, and who can blame them, we did the same. FB’s target audience is those with disposable income, so early twenties up. It appeals to the lowest aspects of humanity, the look at me I’m fucking awesome brigade, which has now swelled into a billion or so such cunts worldwide. I hate the fucking thing and although I only have about 30 “friends” am seriously thinking of ditching it again. The latest example of a cunt I hated in school trying to friend me has driven me over the edge, why do you think if I couldn’t stand you in school I would now decades later want to connect with you? You were a prick then so I can only imagine how much of a prick you are now.
I’d keep an eye on whoever can dominate the adult dating market. Its a brilliant concept, get every horny male on the planet signed up and let them spend their hard earned dosh chasing bots .Some article I read recently where the leaked Ashley Madison data was analyzed and found there were something like 20 million men paying to chase 5 million bots and about 10 real women. Brilliant business plan, nothing sells like the tantalizing offer of sex with someone out of your league.
Strangely enough, the last person that said that to me was a nun. I never forgot it, nor the manic slashes with the meter stick. Are you a regular nun or a defrocked nun?
That’s better. Keep them around that length.
Fintan O’Toole has good article here
So, as my uncle Elliot would say, it seems you figure (d1 TF) we’re in the late and slightly extended squeeze on wave 2, of an overall outright trend reversal, 3 south by end of October, 4 & 5 in November with a ABC rally in Christmas. This was exactly the view I turned my heels on last week.
My view now I suppose is consistent with wave 1 of 5 count by Xmas. It’s not a short squeeze nor a dead cat bounce. It’s simply an Earnings Season grind.
[quote=“Tusa_Mise, post:894, topic:19965”]
204x out of the way by this Friday, 2070 next week, 2050-2100 in November and a test of the high 2150 after the fed sit in early December [/quote]
I guess all eyes are on 100 and then 200 day MAs (204x and 2060, this week methinks), I’ll say no more until these are taken out. But with you bigtime on VIX though, collecting nicely here on put options spreads - VXX, UVXY were down yesterday (-7%, -14%) with a meek bounce today, which in my view is the Options Market calling bluff on the bear case for equities.
But in any case all this is easily talked about. The truth is someone is going to very easily, very wrong, in this weather it could be any of us calling it here. In this Market, my No.1 aim is do not lose money, then less importantly No.2, make it at any opportunity. Good luck to all and anyone with skin in the game.
With you 100% there, capital preservation first, try and make a few bob in choppy markets and make hay while the sun shines. I am up a modest amount since the end of Q2, won’t hear me complaining about that.
I don’t follow Elliott Wave but am familiar with it and other economic cycle theories. I tend to view them with a bit of skepticism in the short term as they are so subjective, but there is no doubting medium and longer term cycles driven by human psychology. Interestingly Martin Armstrong’s 8.6 year pi based cycle indicating economic transitions is October 2015. I am basically a trend follower, use moving averages and MACD.
I could be wrong on the new low in October call, wouldn’t be the first or last time, so take the medicine, close that position and move on. I am modestly short on equities, but if we go above the 100 day MA will go long. Today was weak but we will see how the rest of the week goes. Of the S&P500 companies that have reported, 50% have missed their revenue number, and more disturbing is the pessimism on forward guidance. Unless we see a recovery in commodities (energy sector) and a weaker dollar I’m afraid the pain for US multinationals will go on. The first take on Q3 GDP will be key next week, a negative reading could really shake these markets short term.
It looks to me like the VIX might be about to trend up again. I trigger off VIX contango and VIX/VXV ratio which are still subdued at +2.5% and 0.86, but when/if we go into backwardation and VIX/VXV >0.92 a modest bet on VXX might bear fruit. Shorting VXX after VIX spikes with XIV or SVXY has been literally free money for the past 6 years.
Anyway good luck in the game. Hope the paragraphs are OK @bandage.
Well that’s a solid game changer from SuperMario. Euro getting hammered and is going to keep getting hammered. We’re about to loose 1.1080x which unlocks the all important 1.0825, a huge line on the the/a down swing to new 2015 low and then parity. Outlook is sell it to hell.
Equities are in full hysteria, S&Ps have taken out 200 day MA, a fluke against my predictions because it’s for all the wrong reasons (nearly, GOOG and AMZN up 10% on earnings - cheers Great Pumpkin/Santa). Euro stoxx are going to feast on the free money all the way into next year. Outlook remains new high by end 2015 in S&Ps, and Euro50 also.
The Fed can not raise rates in Dec now. They’ve not made their bed and now they’ve nowhere to sleep. All eyes on FOMC next Thursday. The shit storm is shaping up to be not just a US, but a whole-world problem when the reality hits. Of course, as always Europe will party hard while the printer keeps running and neg rates get more negative. 2016 is shaping up to be a completely unprecedented economic rollercoaster.
No one can touch Mario for jawboning. I was surprised, I thought he would spend 2 hours saying nothing, but he hinted at further bond buying in December and even more negative rates. We are in a real currency war now with Asian currencies gaining against the dollar and the Euro weakening, all against the backdrop of declining global demand and everyone trying to offload their deflation.
I should have known better than going into a Mario day with a short position, however small, as he has a 100% record of ramping markets, unlike Yellen who has stumbled a few times recently. Dumped it at the open and now long HEDJ and nibbling at VGT, both of which should do well relative to the broader markets.
Ball firmly now in Fed’s court. Even though Mario has made life more difficult, I now have a suspicion they may surprise with a face saving hike in December, unless November jobs data is really poor, and EM markets will tumble again. The Santa rally might only last until mid December in that case.
2016 will certainly be a doozy, fasten those seat belts.
Another game changer with a very strong Non-Farm Payrolls report shaking up things wildly. This now gives footing for the Fed to hike in December. They do; short-term bear in S&P, however the NFP was way above forecast, I’m thinking it will present a buy-the-dip opportunity for most of the big yards.
So with 2072 successfully defended we rally on from here on Santa’s sleigh, a significant dip with a rates hike in Dec giving a clean chance to reload longs for 2016. That or the Fed plays the “best of both” cards and watches equities ride through until Feb. Either way I’m sticking with a new All Time High forecast by 18 December.
The Euro, is fucked. Fed hikes + ECB QE = perfect storm. 1.0820 lost, 1.071x in play, next stop 1.0440 and a new 2015 low, then 1.01, 0.98 in 2016. Best of luck to all who earn it. Make sure your bread is bought near your bed.
What?
I googled the ‘bread beside bed’ comment expecting it was something phrophetic from the like of Warren Buffett and this popped up.
11 Simple Rules of Excellent Houseguest Etiquette
Apologies, I should understand that some may consider that a little off topic.
So more to point, how are ye feelin’ the few more pence on the fags and the pint since the last budget? I’m fair broke aft’it like.
What website are you copying and pasting this horseshite from? I’ll do the next one.
-Keeping money in Euro: Non-EMU holidays are going to get expensive.
-Thinking of a job in the 'shtates: your wages number is about to be 1 to 1 compared with home.
-Anyone with a few quid lying about who doesn’t know their way around actively trading the markets, try and get it in to a USD - held fund of some sort. Hold it in Cash but not Euros. If you’re investment abilities are a little more nimble, stick it into a mix of Euro and US stocks (ie the S&P and EuroStoxx or an EFT that tracks an index) until February at least, after that it becomes a little uncertain, possible sustained sideways chop through 2016 (ie bit moves up follwed be equal moves down and then in repetition, going no where on the whole).
I very well could be doing as you’re suggesting, but what’s the difference between an anonymous poster posting something and an anonymous poster copying and pasting from another anonymous poster? How does it matter because who am I anyway?
Anonymous x anonymous = anonymous. Your insinuation has no logical value.
The NFP # is the greatest load of bollox and the fact the market typically responds so much to it exemplifies how irrational the market is short term. Every report is adjusted for a variety of factors which makes the individual reports meaningless. For example this month all the jobs added were people over 55 i.e. More evidence people can’t afford to retire and are taking part time service jobs to make ends meet. The big adjustment this month was the “birth/death” rate which is an estimate of new companies hiring vs companies shuttering. For some reason that added 135k jobs this month, my bet it’s an outlier. Don’t get me started on the participation rate with almost 50% of the working age population not looking for work, most on food stamps. We could be entering the perfect storm where the Fed as I predicted raise rates just as the economy goes into recession. Negative rates next year is my bet, so bonds could be a windfall next year.
It’s not just the exchange rate, the cost of living in the states is significantly lower then Ireland and most of Europe. Gas is under $3 a gallon, food, clothing and other consumables are literally 50% of Ireland, the only caveat is accommodation depending where you live. A one bed apartment right now in SF runs about 1.5m, but there’s always Kansas.
Yeah I was about to flesh this out but I stopped typing, allowed ye’d get there by yourselves. Not only this, but like-for-like wages are a lot higher. A €50k/year person in Ireland could expect to be an $80k-$100k person in an East Coast hub, which played towards a balance in the last few years’ exchange rates, but now $100k will soon = €100k.
"It’s premise legitimacy is not important. It’s the most important number of them all.
It could be completely arbitrary as to it’s legitimacy as an economic indicator (and I may well agree). It doesn’t matter if it’s a fat woman singing a random number from a hill, the market moves short term because of it. It’s self-satisfying principle, like all market dynamics. That’s the beauty of human sentiment in millions of issue.
You did well to predict a Dec rates hike given the Fed did not nor could not predict it themselves. There were no factors pointing towards a hike a month ago. The facts have changed, and now the situation changes. I would think it is 60:40 in favour of a hike, my bet is that the “good news is bad news” mentality will consume and the equities train will keep chugging regardless. In any case I’ll turn my opinion on a sixpence if the situation changes. Be careful of hardening on opinions, keep nimble and jettison your gut feels to stay alive.
Yep on bonds. FGBL the shit out of Q12016, Dec ECB numbers will tell all. All eyes on 157.1x til then, opens a Jan-Feb leg to 145.7x. And Vix is doing all my Christmas shopping regardless. That’s all for now, I’m quite drunk."
- Copied and pasted from some other anonymous interweb user, just now. Feel free to tell me how she/he’s wrong.
I love the VIX, I do all my trading off it. If there’s one metric that works that’s the one at least for now. Go long on the spikes and cautiously short on the dips. I go typically long on UPRO and short SPXU but it can be a wild ride. HEDJ is a great product as long as the Euro is declining and Euro companies are doing well.