Put this shit into PMs.
1 Like
1 Like
I know. Woud be a one sided conversation.
1 Like
Global equities rolling over again. Is it just a bit of profit taking before the uptrend continues or are we looking at another test of the August/September lows? or are investors waking up to the dichotomy of the Fed primed to raise interest rates to spur inflation, while the ECB jawbone about going further into negative territory to spur inflation. These cunts are a busted flush at this stage.
High yield credit market collapsing, third leg down now since July, and down 15% since mid 2014. Scarily reminiscent of 2008. The divergence between equities and high yield is very troubling. Third Avenue (in top 1% of funds in 2013) announced yesterday no more selling allowed in their junk bond fund and they will liquidate in the coming months (had $2.5B in assets a few months ago)…
@Tusa_Mise, new all time high looking unlikely by Dec 18. Could happen, although looks to me more like we are in the second neck of a declining H&S that started in mid October, so should see minor rally again in late December, and then look out below in January and 2016.
Price of oil was heading for 140 dollars a barrel in 2008… It heading for 20 dollars a barrel in next few months. Surley this along would take the sting out of any possible downturn?
Does everything Eddie Hobbs preachs turn out to be absolute rubbish?
2 Likes
Oil wasn’t a catalyst for the recession in 2008, although when the recession took hold the price dropped from $140 to $45 very quickly as global demand collapsed. Oil is a catalyst this time as a lot of countries depending on oil revenues can’t withstand $30 let alone $20, and US shale producers who are highly leveraged will start to go belly up, taking the credit markets with them. Personally I don’t think it will be anywhere close to the 2008/9 collapse, but I don’t think people are prepared for another downturn. The US equity market is all that’s held up since mid year (over half of all major global equity markets are down more than 10%), and that’s been driven by corporations borrowing massively to buy back stock (keeping the stock price up to ensure CEOs get their bonuses). Global GDP is shrinking, US exports and imports are shrinking, corporate revenues and now earnings are shrinking, it’s not a healthy picture. There’s a lot of hope resting on the US consumer’s shoulders, if they disappoint things could get ugly real fast. I know I sound like a permabear doomster, but I’m really not, I turned negative mid 2015.
1 Like
Equities look to be set for a negative start to 2016. Asian stock markets down sharply, Chinese markets halted at 7% down. Chinese manufacturing shrunk again in December as did S. Korea. Real worry now that the Fed is raising rates at the end of an economic cycle and may have to reverse course, but will the damage already be done.
Labane, what’s your views on sterling / euro over the next two weeks??
Not much change I’d say, trading in a 1.35 to 1.36 Euro/GBP range. Longer term I see Sterling continue to weaken against the Euro, probably to the 1.20 level sometime in the next 6 months (the opposite of what that lunatic @Julio_Geordio told us back in September).
I posted that on the 30th of September, since then it touched 0.70 and is still slightly stronger/flat. Anyway I was talking long term.
#Youfuckingape
No need for name calling pal.
Fair enough, your long term call is for sterling to appreciate versus the Euro, my call is the opposite. Time will tell.
Just in time for Cheltenham 
2 Likes
Wait till Cameron announces the date of the referndum. Dont know whether lads will flog it or buy it. @anon7035031 what do you recon chief?
Will there be a referendum though? I know Cameron promised it, but it’s not unusual for politicians to change tack. The British public seem marginally in favor of an EU exit, but just like the Scottish referendum, whatever business leaders decide will prevail and the politicians will fall in line. Business seems to favor staying in the EU, as leaving could hurt trade. If I had to make a call I would say Cameron will get reforms out of the EU and there will be no referendum, but who knows.
He is committed to having a referendum.
Whether he has much to put on the table for an in/out vote is another question.
In fairness to him, he promised it and I think he’ll come through. He’s looking for something from Europe so he can strenghten the case for staying in.
So assuming he calls it, whats your gut feeling on sterling?
It could cause weakness in the short term due to uncertainty. The question of the special status of City of London would be a big question I would imagine.
Im fighting with myself on this one. One half if me is saying you re correct while the other half sees the distinct pisdibility if lads hoarding it till just before and then offloading depending on opinion polls etc