The ask Bandage about mortgages thread

[tallback]

@Fat_Pox

McWilliams had a decent podcast during the week on this about Irish banks fleecing their customers on mortgages. He maintains rates should now be down near 1%. All it needs is one lender to jump the shark on it but they all seem to be in cahoots to keep them high.

Or a new lender to come in. That’s prob less likely after the current crisis though

[glasagusban]

@artfoley

If you’re not in a chain yourself then walk away, you’ll probably see a 15% drop in property prices in the 6 months after lockdown

Explain that one.

[artfoley]

@glasagusban

Explain that one

You don’t think the world economy is going to be in recession for at least a year after lockdown? Throw in the possibility of a second wave, the likelihood of the end of quantative easing, etc.

[gilgamboa]

@Tank

think that most people might expect prices to bounce back very quickly and just hold off on selling for a year or so. I suspect that prices would fall that far, I might be entirely wron

No way prices bounce back quickly

[glasagusban]

Dunno to be honest. I think the recovery will be quick compared to last time. And there’s still a shortage of supply.

[glasagusban]

Well they shouldn’t rise quickly again because now we are going to build #gaffs etcetera. But will there be a shorp sharp drop first?

[artfoley]

@glasagusban

Dunno to be honest. I think the recovery will be relatively quick compared to last time. And there’s still a shortage of supply

Supply will be met by the end of the Airbnb generation with the cliff fall on tourism. The recovery may be quicker as there may be EU solidarity this time but it won’t be quick, at least 18 months

[glasagusban]

If air BnB units alone fixes supply it will be great. It will also be appalling that FG never banned it effectively before. It’ll help a lot but will hardly sort it all out. Anyway, this will pass.

[artfoley]

@glasagusban

If air BnB units alone fixes supply it will be great

Over 2000 properties to let in Dublin now. There was less than 400 a couple of weeks ago

[gilgamboa]

@glasagusban

Well they shouldn’t rise quickly again because now we are going to build #gaffs etcetera. But will there be a shorp sharp drop first?

I think there will be a huge contraction in the level of credit available

[glasagusban]

Will euromillions, I mean eurobonds, not sort all that?

[glasagusban]

Great. It’s not going to solve the housing crisis overnight though, and how many of those cunts won’t kick the tenants out in a year and go back to air BnB (as long as SF don’t get in and stop them).

[briantinnion]

The big problem is that no one can explain how all of this ends any time soon. There’s only three ways it ends from what I can see:

• a vaccine - 12-18 months away.
• herd immunity - God knows how many months away and at a terrible cost.
• it dies out due to current measures - possibly sooner but we’ll have constant threat of second waves.

All three of those are disastrous for the economy and for that reason I think we’re in the shitter for long time. V shaped recovery is pipe dream.

[gilgamboa]

IMO that capital will be targeted first and foremost at rebuilding businesses …and rightly so.

[tallback]

@gilgamboa

@glasagusban

Well they shouldn’t rise quickly again because now we are going to build #gaffs etcetera. But will there be a shorp sharp drop first?

I think there will be a huge contraction in the level of credit available

That’s hard to get a fix on. In one way you’d assume there’ll be a contraction but in another there’ll be a big drive for monetary stimulus in all western economies.

What’s for sure is our central bank limits are definitely going to limit the damage of the downside now - thank christ

[artfoley]

@glasagusban

Great. It’s not going to solve the housing crisis overnight though, and how many of those cunts won’t kick the tenants out in a year and go back to air BnB (as long as SF don’t get in and stop them).

Don’t forget though we’re back to ordinary folk that have a second property again who’ll be fucked with the mortgage thus depressing prices

[tallback]

@briantinnion

The big problem is that no one can explain how all of this ends any time soon. There’s only three ways it ends from what I can see:

• a vaccine - 12-18 months away.
• herd immunity - God knows how many months away and at a terrible cost.
• it dies out due to current measures - possibly sooner but we’ll have constant threat of second waves.

All three of those are disastrous for the economy and for that reason I think we’re in the shitter for long time. V shaped recovery is pipe dream.

Well there’ll be inevitably some type of V-shaped recovery just through the re-opening of businesses currently shuttered. The question is will it come close to returning to the economic activity of before, which is prob less likely or will take a while

[Appendage]

All depends on the angle of the V.

V shaped is the new buzzword (s).

[gilgamboa]

@tallback

Well there’ll be inevitably some type of V-shaped recovery just through the re-opening of businesses currently shuttered. The question is will it come close to returning to the economic activity of before, which is prob less likely or will take a while

If you target the stimulus towards tourism for e.g reduce VAT on hotel rooms to 1% for all rooms under 125 per night. Make public transport free with a tourist card for next 12 months etc…this will massively stimulate tourism in short term which will support exactly the type of business that has been worst affected here

[glasagusban]

Ordinary folk with second properties?