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981

Now there’s a conundrum. Had no one thought of it before hand? :see_no_evil:

982

I thought they had decided that they would just pretend it was a 4 seater but it seems to be up in the air now.

Helpfully RTÉ are saying that Andrews wants the Boylan votes distributed but that doesn’t seem right. It should be Daly asking for them.

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983

I’d imagine the likes of John Rogers S.C. and Michael McDowell S.C. have been limbering up in the Law Library for this particular spat for a while.

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984

Well it’s technically a 3 seater. Brexit could go on indefinitely for all we know. Are they going to pay these candidates that are on hold do we know?

985

This will be an “epic “ we need given the disappointing hurling championship thus far .

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That would suggest that Andrews is going to hold off Daly for 3rd on the Gannon distribution.

987

It’s a 3 seater but the quotas were calculated based on 4 so they’ve been treating it as a 4 seater mathematically until now.

No, they won’t be paying the delayed winners.

988

Worth pursuing the point so for Daly

989

There’s the Fitzgerald surplus in there too presumably which is likely to favour Andrews I’m guessing.

990

Fuck it it’s primed for a legal challenge, wrong quotas the whole way through, means wrong people eliminated, wrong votes distributed etc etc etc

991

Gavan Reilly reporting it the other way around which would seem to make a lot more sense. Maybe RTE have gotten their wires crossed.

992

Darren Frehill’s first foray into political reporting hasn’t gone well

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993

So there is no story here? If Gannon’s distribution puts Daly ahead of Andrews (which I would have expected), its a case of nothing to look at here. A Boylan distribution would only extend a Daly lead.

It would be the mother of all legal battles. Brexit still remains a contingency that hasn’t yet occurred. The UK have just held European elections as well. Its akin to having a bye-election because an incumbent TD had expressed a notion of retiring some time, possibly in the near future and we’ll just go ahead and have they bye-election now.

994
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995

Based on my own reading, I think things are looking much bleaker for Daly now.

Before White’s distribution, Andrews led Daly by 3,180.

After White’s distribution, that increased to 3,867 - an unexpected hammer blow to Daly’s hopes.

Frances Fitzgerald has a surplus of 5790 which now* has to be distributed, and you’d expect that to increase Andrews’ lead again.

While Gannon’s distribution of around 30k will be favourable to Daly, I think at this stage it’s unlikely to be enough for her.

2k of a deficit looked bridgeable for her, 4k or maybe 4.5k looks a very tall order.

So I expect it is Daly who would want Boylan’s votes distributed - they would be highly likely to push her past Andrews, probably by a decent distance too.

*Actually I think Gannon’s votes will be distributed first as the gap between him and Boylan is greater than Fitzgerald’s surplus?

996

If Daly only gets the Brexit-conditional fourth seat, does she have to resign her Dail seat immediately or can she wait until the UK leaves the European Union?

I’d have assumed the former - that she’d have to resign immmediately.

But waiting for Brexit could be like waiting for Godot and if it is the case she had to resign her Dail seat immediately, it would leave her in limbo, a member of neither the Dail nor the European Parliament.

It’s very possible, maybe even likely, that there will be a General Election in Ireland before the UK leaves the EU, if they do at all.

Daly could be left kicking her heels waiting to take a European Parliament seat that may never materialise, while a new Dail is elected without her participation.

It may not prove to be the wisest of choices for her to have run in this election.

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Apparently it’s like this.

It’s felt that Gannon’s distribution, which is next, could put Daly ahead - it could bridge that 3,867 gap.

In a normal three seat election, Boylan would then be eliminated, followed by the distribution of her votes.

Then Fitzgerald’s surplus would be distributed (as the gap between Andrews and Daly would be less than Fitzgerald’s surplus).

But in this case, in a four seat election, Fitzgerald’s surplus will likely be less than Boylan’s deficit on whoever is lowest of Andrews or Daly, and so not distributed - and the count ends there.

The argument for distributing Fitzgerald’s surplus has to be the same one as that for distributing Boylan’s vote - that the count should be run as if it were a normal three seat election.

Either both will happen or neither will happen.

For Andrews, it’s now a case that he must stay ahead of Daly after Gannon’s distribution.

Fitzgerald’s surplus will only be distributed if Boylan’s entire vote is also distributed.

And if it is ruled that that should happen, whatever gains Andrews would make from Fitzgerald would be much more than cancelled out by Boylan transferring to Daly.

998

Daly is a total loon. Anyone who thinks otherwise is an even bigger loon.

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999

I’d be very surprised if the distribution from Gannon doesn’t fall heavily for Daly and put her ahead.

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As a guide:

Alice Mary Higgins distribution of 12,887 reduced the gap from 6,309 to 5,421.

Gillian Brien’s distribution of 14,358 reduced the gap from 5,421 to 2,036.

Gannon would have to transfer to Daly at a better rate than Higgins did, but doesn’t have to transfer to Daly at the same rate as Brien did as he has just over twice as much to distribute.

The fact that there are only three candidates left to transfer to means you can have bigger swings than in earlier counts.

This is where even 8 and 9 votes etc can come into play.

Like, on a ballot where Gannon is 7, Daly 8, Boylan 9 Andrews 10, that would now count as a vote for Daly.

So yes, looking at it again I’d expect Daly to bridge the gap.