Is it banned elsewhere ???
Not sure.
I must read a bit on it .
I don’t know. I just got a text on it.
The Eslin folk are up to speed with all forms of current machinations.
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Jim Allister is the real leader of Unionism now. The DUP have completely dropped the ball in defending and safeguarding the Union.
It is banned in some US states. In GB there have been resignations from LGBT equality commission because of the Government’s tardiness in introducing a ban. The Stormont assembly passed a motion calling for it to be banned.
The problem I think is the definition of gay conversion therapy. In the North in particular opposition to a ban is framed around religious freedoms
That’s not the case at all, nothing in recent election results or polls support that. Where the transfer won’t happen is in any constituency that switching from DUP to Alliance might allow Sinn Fein sneak in, but DUP voters are switching to Alliance in big numbers elsewhere.
Yes, it is a phenomenon that many commentators remark on. I say phenomenon because to me it is almost incredible. It is quite a leap from DUP, clean over UUP to Alliance but it is happening apparently.
It would seem that Arlene won’t be taking up a backbench seat. I wonder what she’ll call herself when she gets the inevitable peerage?
As I prepare to depart the political stage …
I don’t see it at all. The Alliance are steadily growing their vote base but it’s not a case of them hovering up a DUP vote. You look at the constituencies Alliance do well in, it’s generally affluent middle Protestant areas, they are steadily growing their vote but it’s probably just down to a change of demographic.
Can you give example of constituencies where there has been a big change in the Alliance vote? I’d say if anything Alliance are probably doing better off attracting remnants of the UUP who are becoming more and more a dead duck.
I’d say 2 things about that Fulvio
Firstly that many affluent middle class Protestants voted for the DUP and secondly that in election analyses the psephologists repeatedly have pointed out the switch from DUP to Alliance.
That second point is purely from memory and I always thought it odd to say the least but that’s what the evidence suggested.
On a quick search this looks interesting
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South Antrim and Strangford are 2 examples but it is happening across a number of constituencies. Last Westminster election in Strangford DUP vote dropped 15%, Alliance vote grew 14%, that isn’t demographics. @TheBlackSpot has it covered in his post there as well.
DUP voters don’t think about policies when deciding between UUP and DUP, it’s who can stand up to Sinn Fein better. As time goes on there is an acceptance that Sinn Fein will have a role governing anyway and a slow shift away from the old mentality, Alliance are benefitting from that.
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Joe was good on tbe radio this evening, fairly gave it to the DUP 
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DUP still won Strangford comfortably.
Another issue was SF fielded in 2015, they did not field in 2019. Alliance rely on a nationalist vote in stronghold Unionist areas where SF or SDLP do not have a hope of gaining a seat.
Westminister elections generally vary significantly.
DUP again held South Antrim comfortably. Their vote remained very steady here for DUP, the big change was the SF vote fell by about 3k. In these type of constituencies nationalists tend to vote Alliance as they have a genuine chance of getting a seat where SF or SDLP don’t.
I don’t see any evidence of a DUP vote drifting towards Alliance. I do see a middle ground vote certainly finding its way more and more to Alliance.
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They did but that isn’t what was being debated. Iv already said Alliance will pick up votes from DUP most successfully where there is no threat of SF coming up between the 2.
? Looking at the results I can see, the SF candidate got 876 votes in 2015 and 555 votes in 2019. Is that wrong?
In 2017 DUP got 24k votes in Strangford, Alliance got 5,600. In 2019 DUP got 17,700, Alliance got 10,600. The election results show it and the polls show it, it may be different in your part of Ulster but DUP voters are switching to Alliance in big numbers (though not nearly enough) elsewhere.
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You are correct on the SF vote, apologies.
To say the Alliance vote has risen in Strangford is certainly true. To say the DUP vote has dropped is not. The reason why is 2017 was an outlier.
2017 is the odd one out there. The avg DUP vote has been in the mid 40s so I’d say the DUP drop is false picture.
Now the big question is where has the Alliance upturn come from? The UUP vote has halved from 2010, the Alliance vote has doubled. So the essence really is the traditional UUP vote might have briefly switched to the DUP in Strangford and then to Alliance.
Nearly 3k of an extra electorate in 2019 is also an interesting development and that’s the demographic point I’m making.
No need to apologise, I’m sure the day will come when I make a mistake myself. The fact is that I only commented here because someone said they hope there is a swing to the Alliance party and you commented that DUP voters switching is not going to happen. The reality is it already has happened as can be seen from election vote share, and the polls are also showing it. I didn’t mention Lagan Valley in my last post - same turnout in 2017 and 2019, Jeffreys vote fell by 7k (16%) and Alliance vote increased by 8k.
Im not sure if you are still living here, if you are I presume it’s west of the Bann which obviously is very different. Whether things remain travelling in this direction east of the Bann is another matter.
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The Westminister results are very misleading though. There’s generally a large margin of safety there.
The next Assembly vote will tell the story.
The Alliance candidate in Lagan Valley was actually a fenian.
TUV will pick up some DUP votes and SF will be the biggest party after the next election.
Wait for loyalists heads to explode when they realise they have a SF First Minister
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