The Official TFK Local and European Elections Thread 2024

Very difficult to figure out what way those transfers will fall. I’d say Daly and Aodhan aren’t out of it yet either and Lynn Boylan isn’t home and hosed either.

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N Boylan has done very well from transfers from all the headbangers. Steenson the last one of them left probably, although he will probably do well off the AontĂș transfers too.

Big Wheezy will send a nice few to Boylan. Didn’t realise his weren’t distributed yet.

Philip Dwyer I’d imagine transfers heavily to him also.

Yeah, that’s Big Wheezy (sorry).

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Doolan will transfer heavily to Boylan keeping her in the box seat.
I know nothing about your man Steenson, so no idea where he"ll transfer to.

I retain hope for the pride of Dublin Bay North. I feel Sinead Gibney will send a load of transfers to Aodhán & if he could nip in ahead of Cuffe then it’s game on.

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That cunt Boylan (Niall) really gives me ire.

I would be happier to see Limerick win 10 in a row than for us to send that cunt to Europe, what is wrong with people?

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The split of AontĂș’s votes between the Boylans will be very instructive.

I think Aodhan will be helped by being out of government in the transfers from Smith and that won’t help Cuffe. But Daly could clean up on those.

Steenson is a veteran nutter from Seville Place (Sheriff St area). Was Workers Party for a long time and an unsuccessful candidate with it. Saw his path to glory in the anti immigrant East Wall protests and jumped ship to the far right.

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He is there to support the horseshoe theory.

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Niall Boylan must be rubbing his hands and spitting on them. Surely he gets a heap from dwyer, steenson, considine and daly.

He has his Dwyer ones.

He’ll get a shit load from Steenson. If he gets a huge share from Considine he’s flying but they might spread more. Then I don’t think Daly will give him that many but who knows?

Even then you have Gibney and Smith and a little of Doolan all going leftwards and it’s officially too close to call for me. If Daly goes then she’d surely go more left than to N Boylan?

He’s not well liked, but he’s summarised it well

https://twitter.com/keithmillsd7/status/1800248881688510683?s=46&t=hy6wc4bLZMiyfotc20UniQ

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I’d have thought Daly is in a better position that he is given Brid Smith’s transfers.

Cuffe will struggle for transfers from the next 4 to be eliminated ok. As will O Riordain I reckon.
Dwyer - primarily to N Boylan
Steenson - from what @Fagan_ODowd says, was originally strongly on the left and pivoted. Maybe his core support are still left? Be interesting to see.
Doolan - L Boylan picks up these. Can’t see Sinn Fein transferring to Labour or GP.
Considine - you’d imagine will go right/centre, possibly get Doherty or Andrews over the line.

That’s an absolutely savage vote for Sean Kelly. In on the first count in Ireland South with a surplus of 8,000.

Kelleher will get in too, another huge vote.

Last three seats a dogfight.

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Ok, 12th count complete.
N Boylan picked up 1,700 from Dwyer (Steenson 1,800) leaving him 1,500 ahead of Cuffe.

Yeah probably. N Boylan will get a lead now from getting all the right wing stuff and then it depends on how spread out the transfers are from the left and SD and Aontu

Steenson has no left support. There will be a small share to Smith and Daly as alternative votes but he doesn’t have any sort of left wing base. The only thing is whether the transfers might thin out. He has 11,400 to give out but a third of them are transfers in from the right. On the one hand they’re highly likely to stay right. On the other hand they might suffer from people not voting beyond top 3 or top 5 or whatever.

I still think N Boylan will need a sizeable chunk of Considine (which he might get).

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Katie Hannan is having a 'mare with the auld touchscreen all weekend.