When I was younger I expected that the mode of transport of the future, would be the jet pack. The jet pack got a run out at the opening ceremony for the Olympics in LA in 1984, but that’s pretty much been it for the jet pack. Self driving buses and cars though seem to be a thing, and seem pretty cool, like the kind of future that Pixar would imagine.
The Technology Titanic.
Up England
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That chap was on bbc breakfast this morning.
World population set to shrink after 2050, prompting major power shifts
Improved access to contraception for women will force change, says study
Kevin O’Sullivan
The world’s population is likely to peak in 2064 at about 9.7 billion, and then decline to about 8.8 billion by 2100 – two billion lower than some previous estimates, according to a major study published in the Lancet.
Improvements in access to modern contraception and education for girls and women are generating widespread, sustained declines in fertility, it concludes.
Researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington used novel methods for forecasting mortality, fertility and migration.
By 2100, they conclude, 183 of 195 countries will have total fertility rates (TFR) – the average number of children a woman delivers over her lifetime – below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.
The forecasts contrast with projections of “continuing global growth” by the UN population division and highlight huge challenges to economic growth from a shrinking workforce.
It predicts Ireland’s population (4.9 million in 2019) will peak at 5.8 million in 2057. The Republic’s population is predicted to decline to 4.82 million by 2100, assuming adoption of UN sustainable development goals on educational attainment and “meeting contraceptive need”.
With an estimated 2.37 billion individuals globally aged over 65 in 2100, compared with 1.7 billion under 20, the study underlines “the need for liberal immigration policies in countries with significantly declining working age populations”.
The study was part funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
“Continued global population growth through the century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the world’s population,” said IHME director Dr Christopher Murray, who led the research.
Lancet editor-in-chief Dr Richard Horton said the research “offers a vision for radical shifts in geopolitical power, challenges myths about immigration, and underlines the importance of protecting and strengthening the sexual and reproductive rights of women”.
The 21st century would see a revolution in the story of human civilisation, he predicted. “Africa and the Arab World will shape our future, while Europe and Asia will recede in their influence. By the end of the century, the world will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China and the US the dominant powers.”
Fertility rate
The global TFR is predicted to steadily decline, from 2.37 in 2017 to 1.66 in 2100, with rates falling to about 1.2 in Italy and Spain. Ireland’s TFR is predicted to reduce to 1.57 by 2100; it was 1.84 in 2017.
Much of the decline is predicted in high-fertility countries, notably in sub-Saharan Africa where rates are expected to fall below replacement level for the first time. Nevertheless, its population is forecast to triple to 3.07 billion in 2100, as death rates decline and an increasing number of women enter reproductive age.
North Africa and the Middle East is the only other region predicted to have a larger population in 2100 (978 million) than in 2017 (600 million).
Many of the fastest-shrinking populations will be in Asia and central and eastern Europe. Populations are expected to more than halve in 23 countries and territories, including Japan (from 128 million people in 2017 to 60 million in 2100), Spain (46 to 23 million), Italy (61 to 31 million), Portugal (11 to 5 million) and South Korea (53 to 27 million).
China’s population is predicted to reduce from 1.4 billion in 2017 to 732 million.
“While population decline is potentially good news for reducing carbon emissions and stress on food systems, with more old people and fewer young people, economic challenges will arise as societies struggle to grow with fewer workers and taxpayers, and countries’ abilities to generate the wealth needed to fund social support and healthcare for the elderly are reduced,” noted first author Prof Stein Emil Vollset.
Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to become increasingly powerful as its population rises. Nigeria is projected to be the only country among the world’s 10 most populated nations to see its working-age population grow over the century, supporting rapid economic growth.
“For high-income countries with below-replacement fertility rates, the best solutions for sustaining current population levels, economic growth, and geopolitical security are open immigration policies and social policies supportive of families having their desired number of children,” Dr Murray said.
In a commentary, Prof Ibrahim Abubakar of University College London said the findings indicate the need for “a fundamental rethink of global politics”.
“Nations would need to co-operate at levels that have eluded us to date to strategically support and fund the development of excess skilled human capital in countries that are a source of migrants.”
An equitable change in global migration policy would need the voice of rich and poor countries, he said.
With challenges such as climate change and greater global migration, “the distribution of working-age populations will be crucial to whether humanity prospers or withers”, Prof Abubakar added.
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World population forecasted to peak in 2064 at 9.7 billion people and fall to 8.8 billion by century’s end
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23 countries will see populations shrink by more than 50 per cent including Japan, Thailand, Italy and Spain
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By 2100, projected fertility rates in 183 of 195 countries will not be high enough to maintain current populations without “liberal immigration policies”
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Dramatic declines in working age-populations predicted in India and China to hamper economic growth and prompt global power shift
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Liberal immigration policies could help maintain population size and economic growth even as fertility falls * Number of individuals older than 80 years projected to increase six-fold, from 141 million to 866 million by 2100
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Yerra the Covid will solve all that.
Finally some good news.
Did The Lancet verify the data this time or did they just take the authors word for it? 
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This in the Guardian:
Sub-Saharan Africa, meanwhile, will triple in size to some 3 billion people, with Nigeria alone expanding to almost 800 million in 2100, second only to India’s 1.1 billion.
Tell me about Lagos real estate boys, what kind of prices are we talking about?
Would I be correct in thinking the world peaked in 1997?
Maybe for people born in 1975,
Though being young back then was great, i’d say it’s fairly shit nowadays.
Think more so 2003-2006.
Was a savage purr in the Celtic Tiger back then.
Regards music - definitely the mid 90’s. 93-97 or thereabouts.
Round 2004/05/06 were the best of times for me (I met my Mrs in 07 so that doesn’t sound great 
).
22-24. In different cities a couple of weekends a month. Out loads. Foreign festivals once or twice a year. Spontaneous road trips. Gigs. Gigs. Gigs.
Absolute freedom and money in the pocket.
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My point exactly, the world will never be better than when you are 20-25, when you’re lying on your death bed with a bit of time to think and the place to yourself those memories are what will put a smile on your face
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The best is yet to come ye fannies
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1997 was my favourite year.
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Were you delighted Clare won the All Ireland?
I was delighted to spend the summer in Montauk, NY.
As for your question, any win over Tipp is a great win.
Mine too but but but… Let’s be honest, the day we all signed on the dotted line of a mortgage draw down our worlds changed.
We can’t be living in the past though. Look after your health and the best is yet to come.
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