This years edition has been widely described as “tough and challenging” and certainly more of a test than the somewhat lame 2009 version. ASO always look to strike balance so that the route doesn’t overly favour the pure climbers or the specialist time trialists. In truth though to win Le Tour you have to be able to be very competent in both. Looking at recent winners of the race in Ullrich, Pantini, Armstrong,Sastre and Contador and with the exception of Pantini all the riders were highly competent in both disciplines. In Pantini’s case it was more a case of being so supreme in the mountains that defecit in time trials was manageable.
The course this year features five high mountain stages as well as several medium mountain and hilly tests. It kicks off next Saturday with the prologue which always provides a good indication of form. Interestingly stage three sees the riders test themselves on over 13km of cobbles. Many of the stronger teams will seek to press home an advantage for their strong general classification men here and gain precious time ahead of other stages later on in the three weeks. As per usual though though expect the race to be decided in the mountains, IN the time trial which takes place on penultimate day or in the laboratory.
I expect Cavendish to take green despite a poor season. He has targeted the jersey for the first time and he has the team to support him.
Nicolas Roche has returned from injury just in time and a top ten finish isn’t out of the question. He showed great promise last year and a stage victory looks more inevitable than likely.
Below are the favourites for the general classification and their prospects in the biggest annual sporting event.
Contador - Hugely talented climber and superb time trialist in recent years. There are concerns over his health, his team, the cobbles and while his form isn’t poor he certainly didn’t look hugely convincing in Dauphine despite promising start. Easily best rider out there in last couple of years and I expect him to win
F Shleck - Excellent climber but recent grand tours would suggest he is simply too poor against the clock to figure for a podium place nevermind a win. His recent win at the Tour De Suisse though has shown he is now at least competent at time trialing. If he is to figure he still needs to gain on his rivals big time in mountains
A Schleck - Like his older brother the Luxembourger is superb when the road goes up. How they will work together will be key to both their chances but in the past their has been too much hesitancy to wait for one another at key stages in mountains. Has had poor season thus far but still main challenger to Contador.
Armstrong - Lance came third in Tour Of Luxembourg and second last week in Tour De Suisse. Results are somewhat misleading though in that he was distanced at times in mountains and unusually for a veteran it appears it is his time trial skills which have deserted him before his ability to climb. He can follow wheels but I think his power has gone. He has a superb team though with eight of the nine Astana team from this year joining him at The Shack. Needs to gain in the cobbles and get off to a flyer to have a chance. If not I think he could even struggle to get a top ten placing
Brajkovic - Hugely impressive at the Dauphine. Contador could only stick with him in the mountains and was beaten in the time trial by the Slovenian. He hasn’t targeted the Tour though and recent history suggests if you don’t arrive in top condition at it you will suffer. Will be expected to work for Armstrong as well as possibly Leipheimer and Kloden
Menchov - Last years Giro winner had a terrible tour in 09. He is talented offensive rider but hasn’t really looked same rider since that Giro win. Bike handling skills are always a big concern too
Rogers - Has had a great start to the season and arriving in superb condition. He beat Leipheimer amongst others at Tour Of California but will suffer from not having team dedicated to helping him achieve good GC placing
Evans - First time in a long time that Rainbow Jersey wearer will be someone who is expected to get on the podium. Balanced rider and for once he has half strong team.
Kreuziger - Very mixed performances in Switzerland suggests he was just testing his legs. Fair bit of promise but hasn’t tended to deliver on this sort of stage
Basso - Giro winner got stronger as weeks went on. No one has won the two races since Pantini and don’t think Basso is strong enough to deliver here though Liquigas will be very prominent
Wiggins - Sky rider says he has lost weight needed and is in top nick. Left a strong team in Garmin to win this. Doesn’t look in confidence but will probably fail to stay with others in mountains this year
Vande Velde - Another crash prior to the tour this time at Giro has affected his preparations. Awful in Switzerland which is big worry. Hope he can deliver but doubt it.
Sastre - Another who has been hampered by injury. Sastre might get a stage win or two but I think even podium finish might be beyond him this year.
Gesink - Really promising young rider who was clearly strongest in mountains in Switzerland. Inconsistent in time trials though. Himself and Menchov could work well together
