The 20/1 for top ten looks the best bet there TTK. No chance of winning it outright but he has a much better chance of Top 10 than 20/1 would suggest IMO.
Ah yeah I know myself he has no chance of finishing in the top 6 but it wouldn’t be a serious bet just a patriotic tenner if he was to miraculously win it. I’m a complete bandwagoner for the Tour and am a once a year watcher so I’m surprised that he is 20s from 6s last year for that top 10 finish. I don’t know why that would be, can you enlighten me?
Roche has regressed pretty badly since 2010. He hasn’t been able to hang with top ten guys in mountains and his timetrialing is still poor. With route this year he will lose a packet against the clock. He needs to sort out a role that best suits him imo. He isn’t good enough to be a GC guy so would be best off being a super domestique for one of the top guys. He’d be good at that as he can ride tempo up a mountain well and is strong in other areas too.
So to put this in horse racing terms, he can be a noble pace maker but not finish in the top 10 reckoning.
Do you still think the 20/1 represents value Lawrence?
I think Brajkovic at 3/1 represents better value.
Nico is a good bet for top 15. A patriotic tenner for top 10 won’t hurt. He was 10th in Tour de Suisse and was well up but lost almost 2 minutes on the TT. He will get blown out of it in the TT, so will Dan Martin. His team is average enough but they have a couple of guys that might nick a stage.
The Tour looks a closed shop for the top 2 with the gruelling time trials suiting Evans & Wiggins who won’t lose too much time, if any, in the mountains. But as the tour has shown in the past -anything can happen and i wouldnt be surprised if one of the top 2 does not finish for whatever reason.
I had Samuel Sanchez backed e/w a few years ago when he came third which paid dividends (I backed him again for his Olympic victory). I will throw a few quid his way for old times sake {33/bloody for a value top 3 chance I will probably look at Robert Gesink {25/1} He had a torrid time last year but placed 5th two years ago. He’s still young at 26 but recently won the Californian Tour, so is showing some form.
My one to watch from the higher odds would be Tom Danielson of Garmin-Barracuda. His main job will be to support Hesjedal, but hot on heels of his Giro win, history dictates a tough time for him. I’d expect Danielson to be free to do as he pleases after Hesjedal’s tour ambitions erode and at 150/1 looks good value. I’d definitely be looking to back him in top 10 markets.
I think there’ll be bets worth taking on Dan Martin & Peter Sagan{Liquigas} taking stages in this tour too.
Yeah Sagan has been very good in sprints. Has not come cross Cav so much though. No Boo en or Hushovd either. I fancy Boason-haagen for another stage. Sammy Sanchez is a good call forvtop 5 anyway.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dY1XZ02x0jo&feature=related
It starts tomorrow. 6km prologue in Liege. Not very complicated just five turns. Expect an animal like Cancellara to win it. Tony Martin and Bradley Wiggins should be well in contention as well.
Last few years Cav was in a team that was almost solely focused on him. This year Sky will have split functions & when it gets to nitty gritty of the yellow jersey they won’t be as inclined to expend energies chasing down breakaways and will almost hope others teams do it. I think there will be a great opportunities for breakaways staying the distance this year. Sagan is more of an all rounder than Cavendish too - hence why is favourite for Green.
Even without his train would be surprised if Cav doesn’t win a couple. He might pull out in the last week though.
Cavendish will pull out, Sagan is a cert for the green. Matt Goss is 9/1 and should get 2nd place in this.
Vinokourov at 50/1 for the KOM is a great price as well. He will be looking to get into breaks in the mountains as he won’t can’t go for the GC. Dan Martin odds are tasty at 14/1. The want him to go for this and he has a free role.
I think Evans will beat Wiggins but the price is too short. JVDB is my bet e/w.
Team sky looked nailed on for the team classification, 10/3 is a great price. Froome and Wiggins will be in the top 10. Rogers and Porte will be in the top 20.
I think the prologue is too short for Wiggins, Spartacus all the way, especially with the five bends. I think the 2/1 is generous
As expected Cancellara wins the prologue by 7" from Wiggins
Good showings:
8. Menchov a surprise at only 13"
9. Gilbert @ 13" - looks a very good bet for tomorrows stage
14. Nibali & 15. Hesjedal @ 18"
Poor:
136. Schlek @ 38"
145. Samuel Sanchez @ 40"
(these would be expected to lose time but surely not that much)
Irish:
55. Dan Martin @ 24"
56. Nicolas Roche @ 25"
Almost inseparable. Decent enough performances from both and a real pleasant surprise from Dan.
Yeah pleasing showing from two Irish lads and in particular from Martin. All about staying out of trouble now for him til the Alps.
As regards GC contenders I’d also say it was poor day for Van Den Broeck and Leipheimer (both @28 seconds). Basso will want to do better if he wants to get a top placing also.
While prologue does give indication as to how is in good nick it is foolish to read too much into it though I suppose as Armstrongs’ showing in 2010 showed.
As an aside it is nice to see le coq sportif returning to the tour today.
Sagan got it spot on today and won with ease. Cancellera could do nothing in sprint but gutsy ride from him. All GC guys were in lead group with exception of Froome (puncture with 5km to go). Menchov’s positioning wouldn’t encourage though. Hesjedal will have been encouraged with how Dan Martin performed today. Good showing from Roche too.
yeah, Sagan very impressive. EBH well up there as well. Good from our boys today. Chavanel looked good today, Roche senior is talking him up before the race.
He did very well yesterday too. Was surprised at his performance.
Stage 3 won by Cavendish in a bunch sprint. Irish boys sitting pretty at the moment:
- Martin @ 24"
- Roche @ 25"
Sitting with my recently purchased ‘Cycling Weekly Pocket Race Guide’ in front of me I have concluded that the following are the key stages for the le coq sportif yellow jersey in this years Tour.
Stage 7 (Saturday July 7th) - Not a brutal stage but given the positioning of it there will be some guys looking to make a mark. Final climb is 6km so not long but with gradients of 13% and an average of 6% it should be first good indicator of form
Stage 9 (Monday July 9th) - First of two long time trials. Undulating routes. Time gaps will be quits significant from the best in this discipline (Wiggins, Evans) to the worst (Frank Schleck).
Stage 10 (Wednesday July 11th) - This comes right after rest day and is first time in the High Alps. The Col du Grand Colobier is very long (18.3km) and with an average gradient of just under 7% it will put some out the back. Fact that summit comes a good 40km from finish and testing route tomorrow might put anyone off a big attack mind. With that long descent there is chance Nibali could put rivals under pressure.
Stage 11 (Thursday July 12th) - Short stage of only 148km but a bit of a brute. Two Hors Categorie status climbs followed by category one summit finish at La Toussuire Hope Dan Martin can make his mark here! Very revealing stage anyway as regards general classification
Stage 16 (Wednesday July 18th) - Should be a fair shake up in general classification here. Four very testing climbs followed by descent into Luchon. Not much flat road at all so recovery time in between climbs is very limited
Stage 17 (Thursday July 19th) - Last opportunity for climbers to put a marker down. Only 143km in finish but thankfully the finish is on the resort above Peyragudes (too few finishes uphill this year imo). Expect aggressive riding from mountain goats
Stage 19 (Saturday July 21st) - After three weeks of racing tour will be decided in the 53km timetrial from Bonnval to Chartres. Nothing to hold back for here. Gaps will be very large. Timing of race will mean condition riders arrive in will be important to note also.
As has happened previously there will likely be time gaps in some of the other stages along with crashes, splits in peloton etc. Stage tomorrow will be one for the puncheurs. Lots of climbing in the final 16km with gradients hitting 10%. Sagan could well win.
I’ll review main contenders for yellow soon.