If memory serves me right came out with fifty odd point profit last year. V hard pressed to come near that as will be away for most of tour.
Couple that stand out to be now are
Talansky to win white jersey. 2 points at 9/1. He is one hell of a gutsy rider. Can climb well and not a bad time trailer either. Well capable of doing three weeks as evidenced by his seventh in Vuelta last year where he steadily got stronger. Shares team leadership with Martin and Hesjedal.
Betting without Froome. 1 point Rodriguez to win at 5/1. He is an excellent climber. His time trailing has improved considerably. Contador won’t be motivated to finish second. This is first time Rodriguez has put everything in for the tour
Dan Martin to finish in top ten. 2 points at 4/1. He is extremely talented. Allergies are a concern but I think he will deliver
Thibauld Pinot will win another stage this year and get a Top 10 finish. I think Martin can win a stage. Froome is the big favourite for the overall. Voeckler to win a stage.
I’d agree with you that Rodriguez will be a big player this year. However, do you not think the 3/1 offered for him to finish on the podium is a better bet. Betting without Froome places too much assurance in the fact that he’ll win, which I don’t see happening. Contador has that knack for upping it hugely for the Grand Tours and I don’y believe his shaky form this year is of major bearing. Rodriguez could very well finish second, but to Contador and the podium finish punt allows the fallback of both Froome and Contador coming ahead of him.
As to the Young Rider bet, I can’t see Talansky finishing ahead of Pinot, Van Gardren AND Quintana. Officially, he’s the co-leader with Martin and Hejsedal, but I think that will change once they hit the mountains. I can see Martin being very well placed GC wise heading into the big stages. The first week sees a lot of punchy climbs, and he loves that stuff and could do well early, a lá Phillipe Gilbert a few years back. That would mean Martin would take over and Talansky may have to ride for him and loose time after blowing out in support. I can see why you like him and I think that he will be a contender soon enough, but I just don’t see the value considering the competition, the team set-up and the possibility of Garmin having something to defend
[quote=“Raymond Crotty, post: 793593, member: 25”]If memory serves me right came out with fifty odd point profit last year. V hard pressed to come near that as will be away for most of tour.
Couple that stand out to be now are
Talansky to win white jersey. 2 points at 9/1. He is one hell of a gutsy rider. Can climb well and not a bad time trailer either. Well capable of doing three weeks as evidenced by his seventh in Vuelta last year where he steadily got stronger. Shares team leadership with Martin and Hesjedal.
Betting without Froome. 1 point Rodriguez to win at 5/1. He is an excellent climber. His time trailing has improved considerably. Contador won’t be motivated to finish second. This is first time Rodriguez has put everything in for the tour
Dan Martin to finish in top ten. 2 points at 4/1. He is extremely talented. Allergies are a concern but I think he will deliver[/quote]
Where is the 4/1 on Martin for top ten available? Best I can see on oddschecker is 3/1.
I don’t particularly like the “betting without Froome” one either. I don’t think Froome is a strong enough favourite to justify assuming he’ll finish first.
There are something like 40 riders in the starting peleton who have finished top 10 in a grand tour before so the competition is really deep this year. Means Martin could ride excellently and still not break into that top 10. Still 4/1 reflects that I suppose.
[quote=“Rocko, post: 793598, member: 1”]I don’t particularly like the “betting without Froome” one either. I don’t think Froome is a strong enough favourite to justify assuming he’ll finish first.
There are something like 40 riders in the starting peleton who have finished top 10 in a grand tour before so the competition is really deep this year. Means Martin could ride excellently and still not break into that top 10. Still 4/1 reflects that I suppose.[/quote]
There are nowhere near 40 riders in with a chance of top ten
For what it’s worth, here’s a few that interest me:
Movistar to win the Team Classification 2/1 - Strongest climbing team, will do well on the time trials. Sky have Porte and Froome but the third guy home will be well down in the Alpine stages after a tough fortnight. Quintana, Valverde, Rui Costa, Rojas and Plaza are all strong and are exactly the kind of makeup that wins this thing. Saxo could be a threat as Contador, Kreuziger and Roche are solid top 25 guys, but I think the better spread that Movistar has makes them justified favourites
Nacer Bouhanni to win a stage 7/4 - I like Bouhanni to take a stage somewhere. Cavendish and Sagan won’t be able to win all the flat stages and one of the second tier sprinters will win a stage. Greipel is just an outright flaky cunt and I wouldn’t trust him to do shit. The Argos situation is tough to work out. Kittel and Degenkolb are both good sprinters but the two of them on the same team makes me wary of backing either of them. Which then leaves Bouhanni. He’s been decent this year, has a good FDJ team that will be fully focused on getting him a win and has the added motivation of riding his home tour.
Bauke Mollema Top 10 Finish 11/10 - Mollema is a really nice cyclist who should finish inside the top 10. He has no major weakness, can climb well and stick with and elite group. He’s leading the Belkin team which helps, as it is a good team and there’ll be no issues this time round over the Gesink situation. A lot of the bigger names that might be considered better 3 week racers than him such as Evans, Schleck and Van Den Broeck are susceptible to horror shows and Mollema is the kind of rider who grits his teeth and stays in touch in the GC without much fanfare, much like Peraud or Zuibeldia.
Right fair enough. I’m in Royal Vic Hospital so limited Internet capabilities and working off memory on odds. Thankfully posters will be pleased to read my health isn’t too bad and staff in Royal Vic are superb