A horror show at Ally Pally with Matthew Stevens woefully out of sorts.
Total Bets: 19
S/R: 57.9%
Points Outlay: 48
Return: 85.42
Profit: 37.42
unlucky TTK
Bet 20
Aegean King 4.25 Kempton. 3 points. 9/4 numerous firms.
I saw this one last night and said if there’s any market support I’d follow it in, he’s been well supported this morning so I’m going in. He is an average race horse, but this is one of the worst races you are likely to see and he was placed a couple of times in better races. He was once rated 62 but the handicapper has dropped him to 50 (missed last season through injury). Very big drop and returning from a 487 day break you’d expect him to be spot on with the money down.
wont be much of 2/1 left on him soon. fingers crossed on this one
There’ll likely be a hefty rule 4 on this one if it wins TTK as the 2nd fav has just been pulled out. His general price was 11/4. €0.25 per euro I think it is. His price is now just above evens with most places.
Into 11/10 now, there will be a rule 4 however as the Butler horse is withdrawn.
Jeekers, I haven’t really been on the forum that much in the recent past. Has someone hacked The Dunph’s account? He used to be sound but now he seems to be a complete tosspot.
Great tipping TTK btw.
Nice one Mac, I thought it would be 0.20 in the pound. Even more confident now with the Curley connections swerving it.
Carsons mount is the obvious danger. Haven’t had a bet as I rarely back on the all weather. Best of luck nonetheless.
Non runner
Seven non runners in the race for some reason
Was just about to post the same. Something fishy going on here it looks like.
Amazing. Whoever gets backed in this race will surely win.
Are you counting this gem mate?
Bet 20, as highlighted was a non-runner. One to look out for, for sure. Try again.
Bet 20
Connacht (+10) handicap v Harlequins. 3 points. 10/11 Stan James.
As I’ve said earlier in this thread, Harlequins are the most over-rated team in Europe, Connacht’s last Heineken Cup game (for the forseeable future perhaps) and they will be putting everything into it for the home crowd. It wouldn’t surprise me were Connacht to lower the Quins colours here, and they should cover the handicap. 10 points is generous.
Bet 21
Toulouse (-5) handicap v Gloucester, 3 points, 10/11 PP
Toulouse need a win to ensure top spot and qualification, they will win and they really should cover the handicap. Some might say that they will be content to kick the penalties and scrape a win away from home, but no, they won’t. In typical French style they will be looking for a good performance for some momentum when they go into the knockout stages, Gloucester put in a huge effort against Quins and still lost by 6 last weekend, Toulouse should beat them by 10+ if they start brightly it could be a lot more.
I should have had the balls and gone for a Connacht win, good shout from Larry too in the other thread, had I known of that wind earlier I would have been all over the unders on the points. +10 never, ever in danger.
Gloucester beat Toulouse by 10, very surprised at that. Toulouse are not the force of old.
Total Bets: 21
S/R: 57.1%
Points Outlay: 54
Return: 91.15
Profit: 37.15
Bet 22
An early one for tomorrow
2.45 Wincanton. Fabulous Fred. 1 point e/w. 20/1 Bet365.
That’s a massive price, won’t last long. This one is a lightly race 8 y/o. He was placed in 7 of his 8 completed starts, the only time he was out of the frame was a Grade 3 novice hurdle. He has been off with injury problems but he has dropped a full stone in the weights. This is his second run back from that break and looking at his last run he still has ability. This is a shit enough race for it’s class. At 20/1 it is worth the chance that he either wins it easily or bombs out.
TTK well done lad
Few more for today.
Bet 23
Neil Robertson to beat Judd Trump. 2 points. 6/4 numerous firms.
Judd Trump has been very good of late, and that’s probably an understatement. He can;t get complacent though and I think he might be taking things for granted which you can’t do against a world champion in Neil Robertson. The aussie is more than capable of putting up a performance and he’s the type of player that just needs half a chance to win a frame. 6/4 is a nice price about the upset.
Bet 24
Finians Rainbow 3.10 Ascot. 2 points. 5/2 numerous firms.
Potential Champion Chase winner, I really like this horse, he overcame a horrible mistake to win the last time he ran in a hot race at Kempton. Henderson says he has come on a bundle for that and Geraghty has said he is similar to Moscow Flyer in a way. If that’s true then we have a very exciting horse on our hands. I don’t think Al Ferof jumps well enough and he might be found out in this company, Somersby is a journeyman horse, Wishfull Thinking needs further imo. 5/2 is a good price for Finians Rainbow and should be taken.
Bet 25:
Kent Street 2.55 Haydock. 3 points 5/2.
I make this 4 horse race a match bet and I’d much rather be on Kent Street than the 4/5 shot Real Milan. Kent Street won a novice hurdle and was beaten(albit easily) by the well regarded Cinders And Ashes last time. He should come on plenty for that and I find that the Sue Smith team often get tactics spot on in these sort of small field races (I’d love to see stats on that). The fav was flattered last time and he is worth opposing with Kent Street.
Good luck to all who follow me in.
cheers TTK
Here’s hoping these wipe out my horrific losses of yesterday.