TTK's Profitable Selections 2012

Sport
461

Both of you noble men know the score and know the game of horse racing. If Chewy Lewy believes I am living off one winner, then may I ask that he looks at the total number of bets placed and the strike rate.

I did say if he was 70% fit he would still win. It’s all well and good saying the clichéd “Stay away from the O’Brien runners early in the season”. But there is so much more to it The Dunph. For example, breeding. As a son of Dylan Thomas who has gone well in Group 1 company as a 2 y/o, you can be sure that they will have wanted to win his first race as a 3y/o. Also a lot of people say what you are saying and if you went with the crowd as a betting man you would be in the poor house. I’m sure there were lads laying this one just because it was an AP O’Brien runner in March. I took this into account and felt that his market price of 6/4 far overstated his chances. Initially he was well supported (4/6 with Ladbrokes who have a direct line into the stable) but he drifted markedly with the idiots, “out to get him”. He ran a good race, traded at 1/7. He should have won in my mind and I think Joseph thought he was sitting on one in mid june so was surprised when he didn’t pick up as expected.

462

:lol:

What I know about horseracing could be written on a pinhead with a sharpie.

463

This is how we stand in here now. I’ll be putting up a number of bets for the weekend (Masters, Heineken Cup, Racing) shortly.

Total Bets: 73
S/R: 37%
Points Outlay: 194.5
Return: 222.03
Profit: 27.53

464

Bet 74

Nick Watney. 1 point e/w. (6places) 60/1 PP

Watney has a decent record here, made every cut finishing 11,19,7,46. He hasn’t been in the best of form so far this season but has said that he has timed himself to peak at Augusta and he hasn’t over played early in the season. He hits it long, is a solid putter and the only question mark is bottle. At 60/1 he’s worth taking a chance on.

Bet 75

Geoff Ogilvy 0.5 points e/w. 90/1. Numerous firms

Another player with good course form, he’s made every cut here, and never finished outside the top 40. Tied for 4th last year. He’s had a few health problems in the last 24 months but is back to full strength now. Enjoys the test of Augusta and is a very solid short-game player. Should give you a good interest for all 4 days.

Bet 76

Ian Poulter. 0.5 points e/w 100/1. Numerous Firms

This cunt of an Englishman has an impressive record here also. Played 7 times, made the cut 7 times and best finish was tied 10th. He has supposedly been struggling for form this season but he’s the type of player to raise his game for the majors. He may well surprise a few but I would question his bottle when it comes to the back 9 on day 4. At 100/1 he could well sneak a place.

Bet 77

Charl Schwartzel to beat Adam Scott. 2 points 11/10 VC.

Charl is the defending champion. Adam Scott was 2nd last year. It was the first time Scott made the cut, he doesn’t act too well around Augusta. I think Schwartzel will have another solid tournament (top 10) so at odds against here against a player who has missed the cut more times than not he can’t go unbacked.

Bet 78

Francesco Molinari to beat Alvaro Quiros. 2 points 10/11. Totesport-Betfred.

Another 72 hole match bet. Alvaro Quiros has had some mental health issues recently I hear, he has said that he hates golf and didn’t put in any practice at the start of the season, Augusta might spark him back to life but I’d much rather be backing Francesco Molinari to finish ahead of him. The Italian missed the cut last year but his game is in better shape this year. I think he’ll make the cut and the Spaniard won’t.

Bet 79

Ulster to beat Munster. 4 points. Heineken Cup 1/4 final. 11/4 SJ.

Massive, massive, massive price. I’ve had a right cut off it with Victor Chandler. Ulster are a fantastic side. Munster are an over-rated side. (Cue the likes of Anto saying Munster have won every game in the Heineken Cup this season) Munster were absolutely blessed to beat Northampton and after that it clicked for them. They did well and deserve respect for winning every game in the group but let’s not go over the top. Castres are a below average side. Benneton are shite. Scarlets are average and Northampton under-performed big style. Thomand is not as much of a fortress as people make it out to be. Munster have lost to Aironi and got hammered by Leinster recently. They may have been missing players but the still had plenty of first choice players on. O’Connell and Murray are back, neither match fit. Ulster have been seriously impressive this season. They have a serious pack (will definitely get the better of Munster in that respect). Munster’s lineout is also there to be taken advantage of. Ferris looks a major doubt and that is a blow but they still have enough quality to win this game. Ruan Pienaar is a serious talent, Craig Gilroy is one of Ireland’s best wingers and that will be proven. Himself Trimble and Wallace will cause all sorts of trouble for Munster. I can’t believe they are 11/4. 11 to fucking 4.

Bet 80

Ulster (+7) v Munster. 5 points Evens Stan James.

Reasoning above. The h’cap line won’t be 7 come Sunday.

Bet 81

Edinburgh (+8) v Toulouse 10/11. 3 points totesport.

Totesport standout here with an 8 point handicap. Generally 7 points. Edinburgh are a capable side on their day, Toulouse have a lot of tired men and look a shadow of their former selves. This could be another “upset”. 11/4 for the straight win but we’ll stay safe here and just go for the +8. Edinburgh shouldn’t be underestimated and are a formidable side at home.

465

Ulster were 9/2 when the fixture was announced. I wouldn’t back them with money I found on the street and I’m probably the 2nd biggest Ulster fan on here. Without Ferris they are screwed I think. They will shorten again if (and I think he will) he starts.

Should be a cracker of a game but quoting Aironi, who beat us away where 10 of the starting 15 won’t be in this weekends 22 and Sarries, for some strange reason as they weren’t in our pool even, doesn’t add much to the argument.

You have a cracking record on rugby tipping up here to be fair to you, this seems a stretch though

466

Sarries were in my mind after looking at the betting for the Clermont game, Scarlets of course.
It’s well worth mentioning Aironi, OK maybe 6 or 7 of the players will be involved this week but it’s not good for the camp to have lost 2 of their last 3 games going into this fixture (they barely scraped over the line against Connacht, a game they should have also lost). Munster are simply over-rated, many thought they wouldn’t get through their group (including me) a lot of the squad have now supposedly ‘proven’ themselves. Rubbish. This is Heineken Cup knock-out rugby and a team as talented as this Ulster side should never be 11/4 to beat them. It’s just too big a price, I’d have them 6/4ish.

467

I’d agree that Ulster are overpriced. Doesn’t mean that I think that will translate into an Ulster win but I wouldn’t have Munster as anything more than very slight favourites. I’m not sure home advantage will mean as much to Munster against Ulster as it would against a visiting French team for example.

As an aside I wonder if betting markets are skewed by statistical contributions like Clermont and other clubs being dreadful away from home. If that is extrapolated out by the bookies into a general bias towards home teams (via broad stats) then too much weight might be given to home advantage where it doesn’t apply to the same extent.

468

So Ulster +7 is a sure thing is what you are all saying?

469

I’m on the same premise as you Rocko, I don’t think Ulster are certainties to win, but as I said they should be around 6/4 with Munster slight favourites. At 11/4 I simply have to have a bet but you also have to add in the fact that I’m a massive fan of the way Ulster are currently playing. There is certainly no doubt that Clermont would be favs at home to the Sarries and you are right in saying that bookies may sometimes give too much weight to home teams (this is a fine example, Ulster have won here previously too). In internationals it’s generally taken by bookies to be a 6 point advantage to be at home (e.g Italy v France at home handicap +15, away from home, +27).

470

Yes

471

Woah Woah wtf is this

When is this ulster match on - I don’t want rugby cunts interrupting my viewing of Fairyhouse this weekend.

Are Leinster or Connacht playing aswell ?

472

Ulster Munster is on Sunday at 1.45pm

Leinster Cardiff is on Saturday at 5.45pm

473

FFS :guns: :guns:

474

I wouldn’t be putting a cent of my money or anyone else’s on Ulster, till i know that Ferris is playing or not. Have you the money on already TTK, if you have that’s madness. He is so important to the team. I think Ulster should cover the handicap, but can’t see them winning in Thomond. Munster rarely lose these type of matches.
I wouldn’t touch Edinburgh either, they are playing terrible at the moment and only won 1 of their last 5 games at home. I don’t know how you think they are formidable at home. Clermont to beat Saracens for me is the bet of the weekend.
Best of luck anyway.

475

The problem with waiting is that it’s likely that Ferris will move the price if he is confirmed fit. As TTK says he expects Ulster to start at a lower handicap than 7 so there’s at least as much merit in backing it now as there is in waiting.

I would tend to agree with you on Edinburgh but I wouldn’t have given them a chance the last time they were tipped up here and won.

476

Personally I don’t think Ulster will go any lower. If Ferris is fit I can’t see the handicap moving to 4 or 5. I think it is factored into the handicap already. Edinburgh are woeful, but they will have 35,000 plus and the injury list for Toulouse is building. If McAllister is out, it will be a major loss.

477

Reasons why Ulster could win:

  • Player for player Ulster just about have the edge
  • Ulster should have a better scrum
  • Ulster should have a better lineout
  • In good form and have performed well in big games in the H Cup both this year and last
  • If fit Ferris is the best player on either side

Reasons why Munster will probably win

  • They are at home. Affects players and referee to a huge degree
  • They have key players returning and no injury doubts
  • Experience. They know how to win these games
  • O’Gara is a significantly better player than Humps
  • It looks like it will be wet. This imo will probably suit Munster more than Ulster
478

I would agree completely that Munster are over rated but track record and home advantage have proven to be key indicators in HEC and Ulster need to overturn both here. Don’t have it to hand but v few knockout games in HEC history won by the away side, take Munster and Leinster out and that stat gets far far worse.

479

Excluding first yr (no QF) of comp 47/60 QF have gone to the home side. I’m excluding SF as they are played at a neutral venue in the home sides country.

Of the 13 defeats

  • 7 were by Mun/Lein/Toul. The three most successful teams in comp
  • 4 were not at home grnd they were moved for capacity issues

Stats aren’t the be all and end all but it’s a tough task to win on the rd in this comp

480

Interesting stats dan. Huge amount if that has to do with crowd influencing referee imo. Poite hopefully won’t bottle it.