TTK's Profitable Selections 2012

Fran · June 8, 2012, 9:59pm

What time is the game on tomorrow morning?

Edit: best of luck with those bets btw. I like the look of the euro bets. 4 goals already for the reds

TwoRunnyEggs · June 8, 2012, 10:05pm

[quote=“Fran, post: 644770”]What time is the game on tomorrow morning?

Edit: best of luck with those bets btw. I like the look of the euro bets. 4 goals already for the reds[/quote]
8.35am

The_Tipping_King · June 8, 2012, 10:07pm

Thanks Fran, hopefully Russia will put another few past Poland and Greece.

The Irish game is 8.30 am. Wales game 11 am and England game 4pm.

The_Tipping_King · June 8, 2012, 10:12pm

One more bet as I see a horse I was waiting to run on soft ground does so tomorrow.

Bet 102

Irish Heartbeat 2.55 Newmarket 1 point e/w 9/1 Numerous Firms.

This fellow was a very good horse in seasons past, winning a competitive handicap off a mark of 91, back down below that now to 89, he has hinted that he is back in form this season and he gets the all important soft ground conditions tomorrow. 9/1 and 4 places, I think he’ll definitely be involved.

thedancingbaby · June 9, 2012, 6:39am

I’m aware of that TTK but a friendly is a friendly at the end of the day.

It can be dressed up differently of course, but there is no way players will be treating these games in the same way they would a World Cup match or a 6 Nations game

dancarter · June 9, 2012, 7:16am

Think we will cover the 18 pts. Looking forward to seeing how this new look side goes.

The_Tipping_King · June 9, 2012, 7:56am

Some harsh penalties conceded the difference here DC. Cian Healy’s hit on SonnyBill was a joy to watch. It will be touch and go as to whether we can stay within the 18.

dancarter · June 9, 2012, 8:21am

Fucking hell. Wev played well. Scrums ok, line outs ok, 5/6 turnovers at the breakdown. And go in 20 points down. AB have been exceptional really. Few errors costing us Murray x2 at the scrum and a couple of loose box kicks. Fitzpatrick a real positive. The entire front row have worked their socks off.

The_Tipping_King · June 14, 2012, 3:18pm

Bet 103

Under 2.5 Goals Double. (Ireland V Spain, Italy v Croatia) 11/10, 4/6. 2 points. Victor Chandler

I think we will have a low scoring evening. The double pays 5/2 and that looks more than good to me. Italy Croatia will cancel each other out, Ireland won’t get hammered but we won’t score either, perfect for the Unders bet. Get on and cheer on no goals for the night.

Sandymount_Red · June 15, 2012, 3:16pm

Managed to back Russia at 22/1 mate with Sky bet pre tournament, and greened up when they hit 3/1. Fair play for that one TTK

The_Tipping_King · June 16, 2012, 10:20pm

It’s the moment you have all been waiting for, the €uro’s (see what I did there) are just around the corner, 4 more sleeps and it begins. I’ll be having plenty of pre-tournament bets, first installment listed below with proper solid reasoning.

Bet 95

Russia to win Euro 2012, 1 point e/w 22/1 PP.

The Russian’s are a very capable side on their day, the coasted through in our qualifying group and we saw exactly how dangerous they can be. The gave us a footballing lesson in both games. They are a vastly experienced side with quality and flair. They are likely to play 4-3-3 with their middle three playing together at Zenit they have a good understanding and are a serious unit. The likes of Arshavin, Dzagoev and Pavlyuchenko along with the confident Pogrebnyak mean they are a formidable side going forward. They are also a very solid side at the back, Ignashevich is a rock in central defence and I can’t see them conceding many. They are in a seriously weak group. Poland are awful, OK they are the host nation but they are so bad I don’t see them getting out of the group ahead of Czech Republic. Greece complete the group and I would expect the Russian’s to easily come out on top. That leaves them with a likely quarter final against either Holland or Portugal. No worries on that front. It’s 1/2 the odds 1,2 for the each way terms and Russia look a serious bet to me. They will enjoy playing in eastern europe and lest we forget they were semi finalists in '08.

Bet 96

Russia to score most goals in Euro 2012 1 point e/w 20/1 VC,

Similar reasons to above, good attacking side, awful group, plenty of goals for the taking 20/1 looks far too big.

Bet 97

Ireland to concede fewest goals in Euro 2012 1 point 18/1 PP.

We are a remarkably good side when it comes to not conceding. Our record under Trap is immense. Tough group, yes but I think we will hold our own. We conceded just 7 goals in qualifying, I fancy us to concede 1 or at max 2 in our three games and bow out in the group stages. That should be good enough to land the spoils.

Bet 98

Spain not to qualify from Group C. 2 points 6/1 Stan James.

Spain should be nowhere near favs for the tournament. They are a shadow of the side that won the WC two years ago. They look more than shakey at the back, we all know how good their midfield axis is and they will have plenty of possession as ever but we saw Iniesta Xavi and Fabregas struggle badly to break down Chelsea when needed and they were void of ideas. Torres is low in confidence, Villa is out, Llorente had a huge season for his club but I don’t believe he will transfer that to the national side when needed. I fancy us to take a 0-0 here, Croatia will beat them and Italy could well do similar.

The tour of the Southern Hemisphere gets underway tomorrow. Ireland - New Zealand, Wales - Australia, England - South Africa.

Bet 99

Wales to win the Series vs Australia. 2 points. 7/2 VC

I’ve already backed Wales to win the series at 5/1 about 3 weeks ago when the Aussies announced their squad. They are now best priced 7/2 and still look value at that. Australia are going through a transition period, they have a lot of debutants in the squad and they are missing some game changers. Although the likes of Pocock, Ioane, Faingaa and the very impressive young full back Morahan will feature I still think they lack unity and they are there for the taking. Scotland beat the Aussies in shocking conditions last Tuesday and if Wales can put the seed of doubt in their mind early in the first game things could get embarrassing for the Wallabies. Wales have a good squad, a mixture of experience and youth, they are a talented outfit and they may well win their first series down under in over 20 years.

Bet 100

Under 42.5 points South Africa v England 3 points. 5/6 Ladbrokes.

Looking at the weather in the JWC today, this looks a solid bet. Monsoon rains in South Africa are due to persist so handling conditions and kicking conditions could well be brutal.

Bet 101

South Africa (-7) v England. 2 points. 1/1 PP

I really like the look of the Saffies here. England are in for a rude awakening. South Africa have 3 debutants, all in the pack. Two locks and a flanker, but these three guys are highly rated in their home country and have been making waves in the Super 15, especially Coetzee. England are not in the same class as the South Africans, I don’t rate Youngs at scrum half or Quins full back Brown and this is where they’ll lose the game. South Africa will beat them 3-0 in the series and hopefully get that off to a good start with a comfortable win in poor conditions tomorrow. Something along the lines of 25-6.

One more bet as I see a horse I was waiting to run on soft ground does so tomorrow.

Bet 102

Irish Heartbeat 2.55 Newmarket 1 point e/w 9/1 Numerous Firms.

This fellow was a very good horse in seasons past, winning a competitive handicap off a mark of 91, back down below that now to 89, he has hinted that he is back in form this season and he gets the all important soft ground conditions tomorrow. 9/1 and 4 places, I think he’ll definitely be involved.

Bet 103

Under 2.5 Goals Double. (Ireland V Spain, Italy v Croatia) 11/10, 4/6. 2 points. Victor Chandler

I think we will have a low scoring evening. The double pays 5/2 and that looks more than good to me. Italy Croatia will cancel each other out, Ireland won’t get hammered but we won’t score either, perfect for the Unders bet. Get on and cheer on no goals for the night.

:lol: :lol: :lol: You either laugh or cry ladies and gentlemen, you either laugh or cry.

Im referring to the Euro 2012 tournament bets above. Russia win their first game 4-1 and don’t qualify yet the team they thrashed topped the group :shakefist: They were a very short price to be top tournament scorers after scoring the 4 and although the e/w part of that bet still runs, we shouldn’t be getting a return*. No complaints at all though, Russia deserved to go out, lack of ambition, lack of passion and lack of ideas when they needed them most. Karma for that nation I suppose.

Spain will saunter through the group* and we have conceded most goals of all, you couldn’t make it up :lol:

A shade unlucky with the Welsh bet as they had the beating of Australia in both tests, today they were absolute monkeys not to close the game out today, going down to an 82nd minute penalty. Anyway, enough raving here is the updated P&L.

If Spain lose to Croatia and 3 more teams fail to score more than 5 goals in the tournament I shall revise the P&L here*.
**Highly, highly unlikely.

Total Bets: 103
S/R: 34.95%
Points Outlay: 269.5
Return: 295.47
Profit: 25.97

The_Tipping_King · June 19, 2012, 10:31am

Here are my bets for Ascot day1

Bet 104

Born To Sea 3.45 8/1 numerous. 2 points e/w

Needs the 1m trip, well related! John Oxx reckons he has him as good as he’s ever been, strong run expected in what appears to be a below avergae St James’ Palace

Bet 105

Dawn Approach 4.25. 9/2 numerous. 2 points

Best 2 y/o in Ire and UK. Needs further but a strong pace and ease in ground may play into his strengths. Serious race horse.

Bet 106

Pixilated 5.35. 80/1 Sportingbet. 0.5 points e/w

Bit of a shot in the dark but too big a price, has some decent form in the best UK 2 y/o race this season, hosed up last time, even though it was in a poor race. 80/1 too big, trainer looking to be the first woman to ride and train a winner at the Royal Meeting.

tallback · June 19, 2012, 3:35pm

And we’re back. Excellent work TTK

The_Tipping_King · June 20, 2012, 11:31am

Thank you Tallback.

A lovely win for Dawn Approach ensuring a tidy profit on the day. I’ll update P&L at the end of the week.

Bet 107

Emulous 3.05, 3/1 numerous. 2 points

She is a Group 1 winner and a class above these rivals, and 1m is her perfect trip. She does carry a penalty but she is still improving at 5. A lovely mover and should be another top class Irish winner.

Bet 108

So You Think, 3.45, 11/10 numerous. 3 points

Simply better than these. Pacemaker will ensure he gets a race run to suit. He’s far more experienced and battled hardened that Carlton House. I think he’ll ware that rival down. You might get a bigger price in running you know, but 11/10 looks to good to turn down.

Bet 109

Villeneuve 5.35, 40/1 numerous. 1 point e/w

Looks too big, all hopes pinned to the fact that I think 1m is what she needs. A couple of lbs out of the handicap but it’s not a strong race. Has the size and scope to suggest that she will be better upped in trip. Good draw and might get us a good drink.

boollshoote · June 20, 2012, 5:59pm

Top class TTK.

The_Tipping_King · June 20, 2012, 6:57pm

Thank you boollshoote. So You Think wins with ease and Villeneuve places at 40/1, effectively a 10/1 winner. Drinks well and truly paid for.

anon95599269 · June 21, 2012, 4:57am

Thanks TTK

first time i backed a horse in months- much appreciated

Fran · June 21, 2012, 8:19am

The_Tipping_King · June 21, 2012, 12:32pm

No problem chaps, happy we got a few quid out of it.

Bet 110

Reckless Abandon w/o Cay Verde. 2.30. 7/2 PP 2 points

I am backing Reckless Abandon (without the favourite in this race). He is potential far better than anything else in the race and I think it’s between the two. Clive Cox trained, Adam Kirby ridden, an out and out sprinter one from one and hopefully him and Cay Verde will pull clear of the rest

Bet 111

Kahruman 4.25. 25/1 numerous. 1 point e/w

Top weight in a 30 runner handicap, I know, but it’s for a reason. He is a classy horse.Well drawn in stall 2 and he won his maiden at Kempton in style, he stepped up to listed class last time and wasn’t far away in 4th, beating some horses rated 100+ off level weights. His running style will be suited by this race as he is an imposing type and might bully a few od these. 5 places, serious e/w value.

Fran · June 21, 2012, 1:33pm