[quote=“The Tipping King, post: 845700, member: 681”]We were discussing next weeks handicaps after tonight’s final game of round 1. A lot still depends on injuries etc but here were my early thoughts on the lines (albeit somewhat bias! :))
Saracens (-5) v Toulouse
Leicester (-17) v Treviso
Leinster (-11) v Castres
Cardiff (+15) v Toulon
Zebre (scr) v Connacht
Scarlets (+4) v Metro
Montpellier (+4) v Ulster
Munster (-10) v Gloucester
Northampton (-6) v Ospreys
Glasgow (-2) v Exeter
Clermont (-8) v Harlequins
Perpignan (-4) v Edinburgh[/quote]
I presume the Leinster line is based on Castres sending a 2nd string across?
Yes, we all came up with a line for each match and the above were mine. I think they’ll field a weaker side and they are a different team away from home, as Dan highlighted earlier in this thread. Leinster made a very impressive start.
First official fixed odds handicaps as provided by Boylesports in red.
Saracens (-5) (-4) v Toulouse
Leicester (-17) (-21) v Treviso
Leinster (-11) (-14) v Castres
Cardiff (+15) (+10) v Toulon
Zebre (scr) (+2) v Connacht
Scarlets (+4) (+1) v Metro
Montpellier (+4) (-6) v Ulster
Munster (-10) (-9) v Gloucester
Northampton (-6) (-8) v Ospreys
Glasgow (-2) (-7) v Exeter
Clermont (-8) (-18) v Harlequins
Perpignan (-4) (-13) v Edinburgh
As you can see most are in line, and you’d expect a large discrepancy in the Ulster handicap (a standout bet) but I simply can’t believe the Harlequins +18 against Clermont, that should be taken asap. Edinburgh +13 and Toulon -10 also look attractive.
[quote=“The Tipping King, post: 846112, member: 681”]First official fixed odds handicaps as provided by Boylesports in red.
Saracens (-5) (-4) v Toulouse
Leicester (-17) (-21) v Treviso
Leinster (-11) (-14) v Castres
Cardiff (+15) (+10) v Toulon
Zebre (scr) (+2) v Connacht
Scarlets (+4) (+1) v Metro
Montpellier (+4) (-6) v Ulster
Munster (-10) (-9) v Gloucester
Northampton (-6) (-8) v Ospreys
Glasgow (-2) (-7) v Exeter
Clermont (-8) (-18) v Harlequins
Perpignan (-4) (-13) v Edinburgh
As you can see most are in line, and you’d expect a large discrepancy in the Ulster handicap (a standout bet) but I simply can’t believe the Harlequins +18 against Clermont, that should be taken asap. Edinburgh +13 and Toulon -10 also look attractive.[/quote]
Will you lay me your lines for my thread
Particularly interested in backing Montpellier +4 and Clermont -8
Scarlets with points at home to Racing is standout bet there surely.
[quote=“dancarter, post: 846114, member: 122”]Will you lay me your lines for my thread
Particularly interested in backing Montpellier +4 and Clermont -8
Scarlets with points at home to Racing is standout bet there surely.[/quote]
I’ll lay them to you on spreads from Thursday! Ulster +6 is one of the bets of the season. I can’t see how Clermont are 18 point favourites over Quins, and I hate Quins! They have to put up a performance having lost to Scarlets and although Clermont are a very strong side they’ll do well to win this one by 10+. Scarlets +1? Wouldn’t be taking that, they were involved in a bizarre match with Harlequins, defensively they are poor and with Metro’s defence looking rock solid last night I can’t see Scarlets getting the win. Metro will win that one by 5/6.
Hate betting against Scarlets, too unpredictable both ways. With their tails undoubtedly up they will not be an easy touch.
Thought Ulster were far better value for their win on Fri than the result showed. Tough game over there and if offered a losing BP now I’d say they would settle for it. Il be backing the French side.
Lot of odd results over the weekend I’d say decent weekend for the bookies.
[quote=“dancarter, post: 846119, member: 122”]Hate betting against Scarlets, too unpredictable both ways. With their tails undoubtedly up they will not be an easy touch.
Thought Ulster were far better value for their win on Fri than the result showed. Tough game over there and if offered a losing BP now I’d say they would settle for it. Il be backing the French side.
Lot of odd results over the weekend I’d say decent weekend for the bookies.[/quote]
The high number of points and shirts on Sunday were a disaster. Honestly Dan are you going to back Montpellier -6 against that Ulster side? Especially with Ruan Pienaar back in the fold? That is not a bet, let’s be fair! Scarlets are utterly unpredictable as we found out in this thread, backing them heavily to beat Dragons with the handicap and they lost the match! Just think Metro will have too much for them, close game but Metro will get the result.
Won’t back em -6 no. Maybe win 1-12 or on alt hcap. I’m an Ulster fan, and on em to win pool, but don’t rate them as highly as you do. Pieenars form to be proven I’d say the lad is bolloxed. I’d be wary about their scrum without Afoa. Under severe pressure at times on Fri nt
Yeah Afoah is a massive loss, Fitzpatrick is vulnerable, just think the 6 they are being given is far in excess of what it should be, I wouldn’t be surprised if they won so starting 6-0 up is too good to pass up. Why are you so strong on Clermont v Quins? Any view on Zebre Connacht?
Iv seen Quins 4 times this season and think they are utter utter shite. After copping two pastings at home this season from Scarlets and Saracens also beaten at home by Noton. When a team starts losing at home like that I think they are fckd. Clermont can do a number on any team in Europe on their day and I’d imagine will need a BP win after last night.
Zebre with points is alright at home. Wouldn’t have a bet on it myself either way though. Two poor sides
[quote=“The Tipping King, post: 848171, member: 681”]Zero time so no time to give reasoning. Chances are you know why anyway.
Montpellier v Ulster +9 5 points 5/6 Betfair Sportsbook
Saracens (-4) v Toulouse 4 points 10/11 numerous
Metro to beat Scarlets 3 points evs SJ
Clermont v Harlequins (+18) 4 points 10/11 boyles
Cardiff v Toulon (-10) 10/11 3 points boyles[/quote]
Great shout on Ulster TTK. We both got fucked on scarlets! And you deserted Cardiff too early, phenomenal result. Sarries fucked now. I tipped same bet on my thread, deserve all they get shifting match to Wembley. Probably out as a result
[quote=“The Tipping King, post: 848171, member: 681”]Zero time so no time to give reasoning. Chances are you know why anyway.
Montpellier v Ulster +9 5 points 5/6 Betfair Sportsbook
Saracens (-4) v Toulouse 4 points 10/11 numerous
Metro to beat Scarlets 3 points evs SJ
Clermont v Harlequins (+18) 4 points 10/11 boyles
Cardiff v Toulon (-10) 10/11 3 points boyles[/quote]
Serious weekend of rugby action, made a loss on these bets though but not too heavy. Ulster were nothing short of sensational against Montpellier. Whoever beats them wins the tournament. Saracens lost a game they never should have lost, they were in cruise control for most of the 80 minutes but as Dan said above they probably deserved that for acting like cunts. 16/1 now, that’s still big as they’ll still make the quarters. Metro should have beaten Scarlets but Sexton’s miss late on cost them the game, and me cash. I backed them pre game and topped up with €250 in the run at 6/1. When they got back to 23-23 I’ve had €200 as cover on Scarlets at 6/4 so the 26-26 result was carnage for some! Quins covered the 18 losing just by 7 but it was far from easy and they were lucky to get a bonus point. Cardiff surprised the world by beating Toulon, of course they couldn’t do it last week! Top weekend of action again, best competition going.
Total Bets 28
Total Staked 93
Total Returns 101.82
Total Profit 8.82
Strike Rate 53.6%
[quote=“The Tipping King, post: 849206, member: 681”]Serious weekend of rugby action, made a loss on these bets though but not too heavy. Ulster were nothing short of sensational against Montpellier. Whoever beats them wins the tournament. Saracens lost a game they never should have lost, they were in cruise control for most of the 80 minutes but as Dan said above they probably deserved that for acting like cunts. 16/1 now, that’s still big as they’ll still make the quarters. Metro should have beaten Scarlets but Sexton’s miss late on cost them the game, and me cash. I backed them pre game and topped up with €250 in the run at 6/1. When they got back to 23-23 I’ve had €200 as cover on Scarlets at 6/4 so the 26-26 result was carnage for some! Quins covered the 18 losing just by 7 but it was far from easy and they were lucky to get a bonus point. Cardiff surprised the world by beating Toulon, of course they couldn’t do it last week! Top weekend of action again, best competition going.
Total Bets 28
Total Staked 93
Total Returns 101.82
Total Profit 8.82
Strike Rate 53.6%[/quote]
Think you need Connacht to do a favour and turn over Toulouse in GY. Dirty night it might happen. Gives em chanc to top group again. Line through them for me anyways in the comp. flat track bullies
Agree completely dan. They were shit against a knackered-with-injuries connacht and could well have lost. They seemed to trust their defensive abilities too much against toulouse even though the toulouse pack battered them for about 40 mins. It was toulouse mistakes rather than saracens’ defence that kept them out.
Unlucky ttk. I had saracens in a pool winner acc that now looks fucked. Well done on ulster. They love you as much as you love them!
