Ah Ok. I’m not sure I’d imagine, Trimble, Bowe, Best & Ferris. Perhaps Gilroy and Jackson now as well?
Bowe best ferris possibly. Trimble unlikely. The last two def not. No centrally contracted out halves now.
[quote=“The Tipping King, post: 826708, member: 681”]Good to see so many members out in force embracing the season of punting ahead. 
to one and all.
I’ll start off with a few season long bets, these will be counted in final p&l but I won’t count them until they are settled. They will be segregated from the week to week match bets.
Ante Post Bet 1 & 2
Luke Marshall to be top tryscorer in the Rabo Direct Pro 12. 150/1. 0.5 point e/w (1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
Luke Marshall to be top tryscorer for Ulster in the Rabo Direct Pro 12. 25/1. 1 point e/w (1/4 1,2,3)
Paddy Power look to have ricked this one. Luke Marshall is a really promising player, 22 years of age, one of the most promising schools players and already an Irish international. He’ll start most of Ulster’s matches in this league. Ulster are one of the top few sides in this league, will score plenty of tries and will be involved at the business end of things. It will be a big season for Marshall, he’s only scored 2 competitive tries previously but he is progressing well and should find plenty more opportunities to score tries this term. PP going 5 places is insaneo_O To put a bit of context on it, Ladbrokes are 66/1 with 3 places. He will be one of the main men for Ulster, along with Trimble and Cave. They are three players I see involved in most matches barring injury. The likes of Gilroy, Bowe Payne etc will be rotated quite a bit one would imagine and Marshall should never be the 25/1 to be top team tryscorer either. Two bets where you don’t have to part with big money but could potentially have a juicy payout.
Ante Post Bet 3
Ante Post Bet 5
Worcester to finish bottom of Aviva Premiership. 1 point 5/1 Ladbrokes
Another price that looks out. Worcester are woeful, it’s between them and promoted Newcastle for bottom spot, Sale will get the ship back on course this year and London Irish won’t be involved in a scrap for the bottom. Basically it’s a match bet at 5/1, you do the math! They’ve lost their best player to Wasps in Andy Goode and I can see them taking a few hammerings in this league. Hopefully Newcastle can do themselves justice and finish above them.
So 5 bets, all at decent prices, hopefully next May I’ll be updating a healthy p&l here. In terms of this weekends action, I’m waiting to see teams for Munster v Edinburgh and how the weather works out in Newport and Glasgow.[/quote]
Worcester won’t be bottom. Have gotten Dean Ryan in as coach and made some decent signings. Jonathan Thomas from Ospreys will be good for them and Ryan has made him capt. Paul Warwick ex Munster signed to replace Goode and is superior in every possible aspect of the game than that ape Goode, I’d see his departure as a positive. Serious discipline issues.
They had a decent pre season with good away performance against Ospreys only beaten last min try. I’d actually looked at Worcester as a team who will be underrated and might be value in them covering caps. Worst possible start though. Tigers away.
London Irish look to be a shambles and I think they might go down.
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Marshall is great shout. Way too big. Clearly taken a view hel be away on international duty a lot between autumn int and 6n which he probably will be. Still will get plenty games though and won’t need that many tries to get in places. Interesting he is starting 13 tonight which is helpful to the bet if he played here more than 12.
Also backed Niall Morris the tigers wing at 50/1 EW for Aviva. Scores plenty and highly rated by tigers.
Did both in EW double also
Advised on long term punts thread. Andrew Conway 20/1 and George north 16/1 both EW and EW double also
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Munster team named. Not that strong. Strange selection. Wouldn’t be thinking they would cover any major hcap
Iv gone for scarlets and Newcastle both to win between 1-12 pts. 8/1 almost.
Doing the Newcastle Bath game tonight. Apologies for lack of write up.
Bet 1
Under 37.5 points Glasgow v Cardiff. 3 points 4/5 boylesports.
Bet 2
Dragons v Ulster (-4). 3 points 8/11 betvictor
Bet 3
Under 2.5 tries Newcastle v Bath. 3 points 5/6 Bet365
[quote=“The Tipping King, post: 827099, member: 681”]Doing the Newcastle Bath game tonight. Apologies for lack of write up.
Bet 1
Under 37.5 points Glasgow v Cardiff. 3 points 4/5 boylesports.
Bet 2
Dragons v Ulster (-4). 3 points 8/11 betvictor
Bet 3
Under 2.5 tries Newcastle v Bath. 3 points 5/6 Bet365[/quote]
Two out of three ain’t bad. Important to shop around for the exact bet. Funny how you’d think what the hell 36.5 is as good as 37.5.
[quote=“The Tipping King, post: 827099, member: 681”]Doing the Newcastle Bath game tonight. Apologies for lack of write up.
Bet 1
Under 37.5 points Glasgow v Cardiff. 3 points 4/5 boylesports.
Bet 2
Dragons v Ulster (-4). 3 points 8/11 betvictor
Bet 3
Under 2.5 tries Newcastle v Bath. 3 points 5/6 Bet365[/quote]
A moderate start but it’s a start in profit. As fagan highlighted we needed every point of the unders as it ended 22-15 to Glasgow. Ulster put in a disheveled performance to lose to Dragons and Bath Newcastle was a hopeless game in hopeless conditions. Two tries to Bath in that one, they will give a few of the bigger teams a game of it this season but for scoreless Newcastle it’ll be a battle to the bottom with Worcester.
Total Bets 3
Total Staked 9
Total Returns 10.9
Total Profit 1.9
Strike Rate 66%
Jimmy Gopperth was excellent for Leinster tonight - Newcastle will miss him. He could put Madigan under pressure too.
Bet 4
Wasps (+7) v Harlequins. 4 points 10/11 numerous.
London derby in Twickenham to start the season for these sides. Wasps have added to their squad nicely over the summer, I’m an Andy Goode fan, in this league he is very effective. Wade & Varndell on the wings can score tries and create openings. I still think Quins are an over-rated side by the bookmakers, Evans can’t kick for shit and they have the brainless Danny Care at 9. Their pack is formidable however. This one will be nip & tuck for me. A score in it either way and the +7 looks the definite play.
[quote=“The Tipping King, post: 827353, member: 681”]Bet 4
Wasps (+7) v Harlequins. 4 points 10/11 numerous.
.[/quote]
That’s gone some way to paying for my ticket and pints last night.
[quote=“The Tipping King, post: 827353, member: 681”]Bet 4
Wasps (+7) v Harlequins. 4 points 10/11 numerous.
London derby in Twickenham to start the season for these sides. Wasps have added to their squad nicely over the summer, I’m an Andy Goode fan, in this league he is very effective. Wade & Varndell on the wings can score tries and create openings. I still think Quins are an over-rated side by the bookmakers, Evans can’t kick for shit and they have the brainless Danny Care at 9. Their pack is formidable however. This one will be nip & tuck for me. A score in it either way and the +7 looks the definite play.[/quote]
Fairly facile stuff, Wasps flew out of the blocks, were 10-3 up at the break, conceded a try in the 73rd minute to go 16-10 behind and although they went over for a try with the last play of the game, they couldn’t convert it for victory. Alas, we didn’t care as the +7 was never threatened.
Total Bets 4
Total Staked 13
Total Returns 18.54
Total Profit 5.54
Strike Rate 75%
[quote=“The Tipping King, post: 827672, member: 681”]Fairly facile stuff, Wasps flew out of the blocks, were 10-3 up at the break, conceded a try in the 73rd minute to go 16-10 behind and although they went over for a try with the last play of the game, they couldn’t convert it for victory. Alas, we didn’t care as the +7 was never threatened.
Total Bets 4
Total Staked 13
Total Returns 18.54
Total Profit 5.54
Strike Rate 75%[/quote]
Good shout but it was definitely threatened!
Wasps not bad in fairness but think they will lack physicality as the season goes on.
London Irish are utter cack
I will always be going with Dan on rugby matters. TTK seems likes he reads too many shit English rugby journo’s and watches too much Sky Sports.
Good luck with that Kev. Please don’t post any further in this thread, you won’t be reading it anyway.:rolleyes:
A few mis-matches in the Top14 today with the 3 game rule coming into play for a few teams. One standout, starts at 5pm.
Bet 5
Grenoble (-15) v Bordeaux 3 points 10/11 numerous
Grenoble beat the top class Toulon already this season with their strongest team, they take the field again against Bordeaux’s second string. Could be a hammering, should be at least 16+ point victory.
[quote=“The Tipping King, post: 827827, member: 681”]
Bet 5
Grenoble (-15) v Bordeaux 3 points 10/11 numerous
Grenoble beat the top class Toulon already this season with their strongest team, they take the field again against Bordeaux’s second string. Could be a hammering, should be at least 16+ point victory.[/quote]
This one goes south, no pictures but Grenoble could only manage a 7 point win, 21-14 without scoring a try! On another note, Racing Metro’s early season continues to go poorly, they just about beat a weak Perpignan team 19-16.
Total Bets 5
Total Staked 16
Total Returns 18.54
Total Profit 2.54
Strike Rate 60%
[quote=“dancarter, post: 827743, member: 122”]Good shout but it was definitely threatened!
[/quote]
The thing I like about these bets is that I fucking hate rugby so I don’t have to watch it and have zero allegiance to any of the teams or players.
Nice little win on Saturday anyway. @The Tipping King , it’s my sons birthday in a couple of weeks. Let’s make it a good one for him, eh? I’ve to bring a bunch of ankle-biters to Playzone in Gorey and those nuggets and chips don’t come free.
In work at 2 so a quick line on these
Bet 6
Edinburgh (-6) v Dragons 3 points 10/11
Edinburgh started with a loss at Munster last week but played some impressive stuff, winning the second half. The excellent Tim Visser returns to the team and at home they should have enough to beat Dragons. Dragons had a good win over Ulster but were fortunate enough there, didn’t score a try and never really threatened either. WHill have this handicap at 9 and that looks more accurate. 6 is widely available and should be taken.
Bet 7
Sale v Newcastle (+10) 4 points 10/11 numerous
Sale recovered from a disatrous season last term with a goood win over Gloucester in round one, Newcastle couldn’t have started worse with a 21-0 loss to Bath, but there’s not that much of a difference between these sides. Newcastle can be forgiven for that performance, shite night for rugby and first game nerves, I expect them to bounce back here against a Sale side that will be over confident. 10 points is a big ask.
Is TFK the best place for tips on the interweb???
[quote=“The Tipping King, post: 831235, member: 681”]In work at 2 so a quick line on these
Bet 6
Edinburgh (-6) v Dragons 3 points 10/11
Edinburgh started with a loss at Munster last week but played some impressive stuff, winning the second half. The excellent Tim Visser returns to the team and at home they should have enough to beat Dragons. Dragons had a good win over Ulster but were fortunate enough there, didn’t score a try and never really threatened either. WHill have this handicap at 9 and that looks more accurate. 6 is widely available and should be taken.
Bet 7
Sale v Newcastle (+10) 4 points 10/11 numerous
Sale recovered from a disatrous season last term with a goood win over Gloucester in round one, Newcastle couldn’t have started worse with a 21-0 loss to Bath, but there’s not that much of a difference between these sides. Newcastle can be forgiven for that performance, shite night for rugby and first game nerves, I expect them to bounce back here against a Sale side that will be over confident. 10 points is a big ask.[/quote]
One up one down today for a small profit. Edinburgh led 13-3 early in the second half but scrambled over the line 16-13. Newcastle went and beat Sale 15-14! Great result for us.
Total Bets 7
Total Staked 23
Total Returns 26.17
Total Profit 3.17
Strike Rate 57%
I was blessed earlier. Had bet on Glasgow early doors 2/1 and had givenup all hope before ulster completely fucked it up.
I was doing that game, Ulster should have won by 15+ in that but couldn’t finish anything, smash and grab for Glasgow, only time they were in Ulster’s 22 in the second half was the last 5 mins, great result for the firm!
Bet 8
Leinster to win by 13+ versus Ospreys. 4 points 13/8 Ladbrokes & SJ
Really like the look of this one. Handicap is 8 moving to 9, so you are taking 10/11 on a 10+ victory, yet you’re getting serious value at 13/8 to win by more than 12 points. Leinster were slight underdogs last week against Scarlets and absolutely blew them off the park in the second 40, I didn’t see that game but by all reports they gelled seriously well and Gopperth at 10 was supposedly excellent. Ospreys on the other hand were lucky to come out of Treviso with the win, they’re not at full strength and will know that realistically they’ll get nothing in this game so will have one eye on next weekends game with Edinburgh. Leinster could pull away in this one in the final third, strong bench also, and that 13/8 looks very, very tasty.