That seat projection yesterday that showed the Tories losing their majority was on a sample of 50,000 people.
YouGov are apparently using two different models, but both are saying pretty much the same thing.
This latest poll uses their “normal” model.
Shits getting real for Corbyn. He now has to decide of he wants it or not
The Tories aren’t controlling the narrative anymore and I’m not sure how much mud they have left to throw at Corbyn at this stage given that they have been going big on the IRA stuff and the “weak on terrorism” stuff for two weeks now and it’s clearly had no effect.
I also don’t see how Brexit is a “strong” issue for the Tories.
Corbyn has controlled the narrative superbly during the campaign.
YouGov are assuming a much bigger turnout among young voters than the other polling outfits. Thought I heard 80% among under 24s earlier, but I must have misunderstood because that would frankly be fucking mental. Either way, I’m more inclined to believe the lower turnout Comres are assuming (around 40% I think).
Though what is undisputed is the gains being made by Labour. Just depends on how bad the opening deficit actually was.
I’d imagine Farage will wait until a Brexit deal is completed that he can inevitably portray as a backslide before he tells Nuttall to sling his hook.
I’m not sure what figure YouGov were using to weight their polls. They say 62% of 18-24 year-olds are certain to vote. I’m don’t know is that the figure they’re using or if they have extrapolated some other figure.
Only 43% of 18-24 year-olds voted in 2015.
But that went up to 64% in the Brexit referendum.
1.05 million 18-24 year-olds registered to vote between April 18th and May 22nd and a further 972k of 25-34 year olds.
Now clearly not all of these will be new voters as many will have changed address and be re-registering.
But there is definitely a trend of increased youth participation.
It remains to be seen how it follows through on the day.
A 60% turnout among 18-24 year olds is realistic this time, I think.
Snap out of it will you you political nutcase.
Let me see if I have this right - the leader of the Conservative party and incumbent Prime Minister couldn’t be bothered to take part in a Leaders debate and instead sent one of her ministers, who’s father died on Monday?
Ah stop, you couldn’t make this up.
What was May’s reason for not showing up, or has anyone actually bothered to ask her?
Damage limitation
Surely however she has been asked why she did not take part in a leaders debate and sent a Minister in mourning over the death of her father? How can she possibly campaign from now without answering those questions? Really, whatever answer she gives will be laughable.
@Tim_Riggins was banging on earlier in this thread about her having power because she won, but even if she is re-elected as PM, she’s a lame duck. There would most likely be an upheaval against her in pretty quickly I’d imagine.
Her handlers realise she’s a fucking liability and letting her do that debate would be like letting Dougal do a funeral.
The most worrying aspect of this is the fact she blithely went along with it. It shows she has no backbone and is a coward. Churchill she ain’t.
The only people still left believing she is leadership material are the morons who read the Mail and the Sun.
You’ve still got 7 days left of campaigning. Do they just lock her up in a dungeon somewhere and hope for the best? Surely they’ve got to wheel her out to the public at some point.
Corbyn’s not a great communicator in my book, but this shit is unbelievable.
What a shit interviewer though.
The questions don’t make any sense if you were interviewing someone? Transcribed?
There’s a Question Time special with her and Corbyn (in separate segments, of course) tomorrow.
May’s refusal to engage in debate has really become the story now and she’s going to pieces under the easiest questions.
It’s the Streisand effect. By staying away from the debate May has brought more attention on her weakness and the story about Rudd’s father dying yet May still insisting on sending her to the debate makes her look pathetic.
The Tories are in big trouble as they banked on a presidential-style campaign focussed on May and it’s gone disastrously wrong.
Her front bench are car crash too. Johnson, Fallon and Green have all bombed.
Hammond looks weak and poorly briefed.
Davis and Rudd are poor and they’re the best they can offer in terms of media appearances.
The rest haven’t been seen.
The Tories made the mistake of believing the Tory papers’ version of Corbyn. While he’s far from an inspiring leader, he resonates with the electorate to a far greater degree than they anticipated. A leader on leader campaign made sense if you got your opinion from the Telegraph or the Mail. That bubble has been burst and it is far too late to pivot to a new strategy. Smear and fear is the only option now.
Stage 9
This Lynton Crosby chap isn’t very good at running a campaign.
