CUP hopes expectations wouldn’t have been that high for London to begin with. There were only 5 of the 33 boroughs that voted leave last year –Barking & Dangenham and Havering were no surprise, nor was Bexley probably (even if Ted jumped out of his grave at the news), Hillingdon was probably always going to be close to the national picture and was narrow leave but the really interesting one was Sutton, which would be on the ‘Orange Riviera’ and indeed home to the sole LD MP from 2015 at Carshalton & Wallington. There were a few others like Bromley, Hounslow and even Newham that were very narrowly remain. Taking that as a barometer for CUP chances you would then think that Brentford & Isleworth and Ilford North – two seats they won in 2010 but lost narrowly in 2015 – offer their best hopes. There also seems to be a lot of talking up their chances in Eltham, a seat with a majority of about 3,000 these past few elections but which stubbornly refuses to move; I would have thought they’d need to be winning fairly big nationwide to take that one.
In terms of seats which the CUP could lose; there are two (or three if you include Richmond Park as a seat from 2015) down on the Riviera that are vulnerable to the Whigs. Less clearcut with the Labour challenge but the likes of Enfield Southgate and Croydon Central might be shaky. The incumbent in Southgate is rather less well known than his predecessor from 1997 which might be no bad thing.
CUP hopes really centre on the west midlands where there are loads of marginal. The seat with the big cricket patch in the middle will surely turn blue now that Frau Merkel’s Brexit-supporting compadre has hung up her boots.
Wes Streeting in Ilford North is defending a tiny majority and has been anti-Corbyn, but he has also been quite high profile in general and I think he’ll hang on.
I’ll need to have a better look at individual marginals UK-wide before next Thursday but if there is a swing to Labour, one to watch could be Hastings and Rye where Amber Rudd, while likely to hang on, is not certain to do so.
TM with a strong performance on Question Time while Corbyn floundered under pressure about his lily livered appeasement approach to security. She did a good job pointing out the fantasy economics of Labours manifesto and their magic money tree, mentioned how their proposed COE is a marxist, Dianne Abbott as Home Sec, christ they’re a pathetic lot. Strong stuff from TM.
The British public won’t give the keys to the shop to a fantasist, as much as the leftie try hards on here wish. The socialist / labour propaganda on this thread makes the Daily Mail look subtle.
I thought Corbyn did well. Sadly the debate was dominated by stupid fucking questions such as who would push the “red button” first, as if that matters if a nuke is flying at you. If nothing else, Tories deserve to lose based on their shambolic campaign.
The pub in the station is hopping there today. Called in for a quick pint before heading out to herselfs parents place. Couple of old Irish bars in the city too that I’ve been to. 2nd /3rd generation. Did you walk around it much?
