Itâs important to note that Trumpâs commitment to âthe banâ is debatable. Itâs highly visible, itâs inflammatory, and of course he has to be seen to fight for it. However, in and of itself itâs a big expenditure of political capital for questionable gain. Even in security terms, itâs doubtful as to whether it actually achieves anything.
The real victory for Trump, and the one that would change everything, is if an attack takes place that can be framed as a consequence of failure to properly enforce the ban. That is an enormous propaganda victory for Trump and is what I suspect this is really all about. And given the disregard for facts that this administration has already shown in its first month or so in office, just about any attack would do for them.
Everything for Trump is about creating the conditions in which the normal restraints of politics and law can be dispensed with and in which he can assume sweeping and draconian powers, and/or he can wage war - ie. shock doctrine.
Itâs a well worn tactic by fascists, authoritarians and western financial interests throughout history.
September 11th, 2001 was manna from heaven for Bush and the neo-cons.
I donât think the situation requires a âfalse flagâ operation though. False flag operations are justified in the context of major geo-strategic aims, but not in the context of appeasing white nationalism or scoring points domestically.
On that front I expect the escalation of the perceived threat of China to commence inside the first half of Trumpâs term. China is potentially an enormous threat to the US and signals that the foreign establishment were switching their focus to Asia were already coming from Obama.
This is bad news for Europe of course, as we will slip from no.2 to no.3 on the priorities list (behind the Persian Gulf and Asia). Trump seems to buy into this worldview as evidenced by the Taiwan call and his chumminess with Putin. Against that the establishment consensus on Russia is unlikely to change no matter what Trump says so we wonât be abandoned just yet.
With all due respect I am a naturalized US Citizen with equal rights as every other citizen. I am protected by the constitution no matter what an ape in the WH says.
Let him focus on more important isses such as gun violence (as you pointed to).
The dummy doesnât even realise that his trade policy gives China the opportunity to greatly increase its international influence at the expense of the US.
Quote:
Chinaâs central bank is running out of ways to stem capital flight and faces a near impossible task trying to manage the fall-out from extreme credit growth, two of Asiaâs most influential banks have warned.
âDefence of the currency by the Peopleâs Bank (PBOC) is no longer a viable option,â said Eric Robertson, the head of global macro strategy for Standard Chartered.
The Asia-focused lender said powerful forces are driving capital out of the country and the picture is fundamentally more disturbing than it was during last yearâs devaluation panic. This is putting the PBOC in an invidious position as it attempts to deal with festering troubles in the banking system.
The Institute of International Finance estimates that outflows reached a record $US725bn last year and there is little sign of any slow-down despite ever-tighter capital controls.
Mr Robertson said aggressive intervention on the currency markets to slow the fall of the yuan automatically drains liquidity and tightens financial conditions. âThey risk doing enormous damage to the onshore banking system,â he said.
The Japanese bank Nomura issued a parallel alert on Chinaâs âincredible five-ball juggling actâ, warning that East Asia as a whole is sailing into a financial storm. There is a high risk of a region-wide credit crunch escalating into something hard to control.
Quote:
Standard Chartered said the great worry is that the Trump administration and the US Congress will pass a âborder adjustment taxâ on imports, triggering ructions in the global currency markets.
Most economists fear such a tax could lead to a dollar spike of 15 to 20 per cent. This would set off an earthquake in a global financial system that has never been more dollarised and carries $10 trillion of offshore dollars with no lender-of-last resort behind it.
Mr Robertson said the consequences for China do not bear thinking about.
Quote:
âMonetary and fiscal stimulus to achieve unrealistic growth targets is not the answer; they are losing efficacy and risk fuelling more bubbles and misallocating more resources,â he said.
BBC podcast on capital flight from China
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Weâre looking at the growing pressures on Chinaâs economy. More than three quarters of a trillion dollars leached overseas last year, despite the governmentâs best efforts to limit capital flight.
Itâs a tricky one. There is obviously a massive credit bubble in China for years now. I wouldnât believe any economic statistics coming out of there. China is a massive lender to the USA so if the Chinese are goosed, who is going to lend the US money and especially to fund Trumpâs proposed expansionist economic policy? There is a risk that with the economy falling, trade wars with the US and local unrest that the Chinese may adopt a more aggressive military stance. That is what Putin has been doing in the Ukraine and Syria to deflect attention away from a declining economy. So I think we are looking at war in the Pacific in the next couple of years.
I hope thatâs a bit drastic.
If the dollar spikes by 15-20%, Iâd imagine trump will bankroll his spending behind the wheel of the printing presses.
China is an odd case for sure.
The fact that the economy is centrally controlled allows them to weather/hide a lot of storms that would be fatal elsewhere. A war in the pacific would be a world war fairly fast.
I donât think thereâs much appetite from anywhere to take on China in a proper war. Thatâd be game over for the World. A trade war is probable at this stage though and once that shit starts who knows. We live in interesting times.