The problem for Sanders is that he’ll have to overturn even bigger poll deficits in Florida, Illinois, Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri.
Another problem he has is that the Democrats divide their unpledged delegates (the ones in play, as opposed to superdelegates) proportionally so it’s harder to catch up. Sanders is over 200 behind in terms of unpledged delegates.
Sanders actually fell further behind in unpledged delegates last night due to Clinton winning easily in Mississippi.
Most of the Republican primaries from now on are winner take all in terms of delegates. If Trump wins in Florida, Ohio, Illinois, North Carolina and Missouri next week, as he is on course to do, (although I think Kasich could yet take Ohio) it’s over.
Rubio is gone. He should pull out now if he doesn’t want to be humiliated in his home state and face long term damage to his political career.
All true. Sanders needs more than one landslide victory to catch up. I guess the momentum gained might count for something, but it almost probably won’t be enough. Clinton’s massive victories in the South more or less wrapped it up for her.
The polls are not going to be that wrong again either, even if they are underestimating Sanders’ popularity fairly consistently. I remember an American telling me during Obama’s run that popularity with younger voters is rarely reflected in the polls as they are harder to reach though a phone listing. It’s probably the same for Sanders.
Sanders when he wins tends to win narrowly and even if he wins a majority of states from now on (which I don’t expect to happen) he’ll only win them narrowly. Clinton tends to win big in her states.
If Trump wins the five states next week, his delegate count will go up to close to 800 which will be around double what Cruz has.
Even in a hypothetical situation where both Rubio and Kasich pull out after next week, I still don’t think Cruz has enough to turn it around.
Trump is still 4/11 for the nomination, at one stage today he was 8/15.
It’s as good as buying money at this stage, I think - I cannot see the Republicans going for the nuclear option and usurping him at a contested convention.
At this point I think Trump’s victory is much preferable to Cruz winning. Trump, despite all his xenophobic rhetoric, seems more like a Berlusconi figure than anything else. It’s a cult of personality more than a clear minded programme that defines his campaign.
Cruz on the other hand is an evil, vicious bastard spawned from the most frightening political movement to emerge in the Western Hemisphere since WW2. Unlike Trump, he is most certainly committed to a clear programme that is too extreme even for most of the billionaires that own the Republican party.
Fair play to hook tonight. Some guy on (cant remember his name but from conversation he a regular enough guest) was blabbering on about the potential for war crimes if trump got in. Hook slingered him with plenty of war crimes from recent and current us governments. Hon George. He’s not too bad all the same…
The Republicans are/will absolutely consider the nuclear option. The Trump issue is much bigger than just the Presidential election, Republicans risk losing all branches of government, such is the potential impact of a Trump candidacy. The guy is a complete enigma, nobody knows what skeletons remain to be unearthed or will emerge before November. It is quite possible if he is the nominee that he could either pull a huge turnout in his favor, or a huge turnout to ensure he doesn’t get elected. In the latter scenario Republican senators and congressmen could get wiped out as well.
There is still along way to go, he only has 458 delegates to date of the required 1237. I agree if he is close to 1237 it will be virtually impossible for the Republicans to force a brokered convention, but the whole strategy now is to keep his final number down, piling money on Rubio and Kasich, and even supporting the hated Cruz in some states. In a scenario where Trump and Cruz are fairly close, say around 1000 each, then a brokered convention is inevitable and once it goes to the second round of voting it’s a whole new ball game. That’s why its so important to keep Rubio and Kasich in the race as long as possible, and have them win more states, to reduce Trump’s chances of making it close to 1237.
+1
God talks to him… 'nuff said.
Trump is more of a Wind Up Merchant. If, in the (IMO) slim chance he became president, he would tone the shit down. He’s a business man, so ain’t going to do things that will hurt business men, like deporting all the Mexicans, introducing tariffs on trade etc. When push comes to shove he would be a pragmatist.
Cruz on the other hand believes the shit he spouts, and he’s a vindictive and evil cunt. He’s have no proeblem leading the world to Armageddon if he thought it was the ‘righteous’ path.
You’d need to speak Spanish to keep up with tonight’s debate but Hillary’s at least appearing to look more the real deal every time. Sanders sounds good reeling against her history on supporting special interests but it’s old hat to missy Clinton at this stage and she’s coming back stronger every time
Hilariousy biased debate. Clinton given minutes to answer every question and Bernie interrupted after 10 seconds by the mods. Someone obviously forking out big bucks to Univision. Hugely partisan Clinton crowd as well. Democracy my arse.
A few times but Hillary was allowed grandstand all night. The video from 1985 was a low blow, totally out of context. That was back in the days when Reagan was supporting every scumbag dictator in central and South America.
What was exactly controversial about the video?
The only cunts that would be upset by that would be the Gusanos in Miami, and they all vote Republican anyway.
Keeping Rubio and Kasich in the race plays into Trump’s hands. Rubio is unlikely to win many more delegates, never mind any states, and barring possibly Ohio, Kasich is unlikely to win any states.
It just splits the vote so Trump will win.
With the majority of the remaining states being winner take all, Rubio and Kasich staying in plays into Trump’s hands in a way it hasn’t up to now because the states so far have all allocated their delegates proportionally.
Trump is already on 463. If the race continues to be four-way, he can easily take the 774 of the remaining 1,438 delegates he needs for a majority.
The only realistic chance the Republicans have of stopping Trump is for Rubio and Kasich to both pull out and let Cruz go it alone against him. And that probably still wouldn’t work.
