It doesnât
I see. Interesting.
Belgium and Holland.
It seems to me 538 discard low rated polls. I think thatâs a dangerous business. My recollection of 2020 is that A+ rated pollster NY TImes/Siena had a total nightmare pretty much everywhere.
This is 538âs last polling spread for Pennsylvania for 2020, with all polls showing a 4 to 7 point lead for Biden.
Biden ended up winning Pennsylvania by a margin of 1.17%.
Real Clear Politics (or Real Clear Polling), which is a very biased right wing website in general in terms of the political content it aggregates, seems to me to be a better polling guide because they donât âfilter outâ polls. Their spread for Pennsylvania was on the money in 2020.
This is Real Clear Pollingâs current outlook for Pennsylvania 2024.
I might do this comparison for the other key states over the next while.
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In 2020 Biden won Michigan by 2.8%. But 538 were far too bullish on Biden. They had him 7.9% ahead on the polling spread.
These two images show the polls 538 took to make their spread for Michigan.
In 2024 538 currently have Harris ahead by 0.7%.
Real Clear Politics also overstated Bidenâs 2020 lead in their spread - but they were much closer to the real figure - because they included the Trafalgar poll. Trafalgar is widely panned as a bullshit pro-Trump poll. It probably is, but it introduces realism when added to the mix, because the supposed
highly rated pollsters have just as much a propensity to be bullshit.
In 2024 Real Clear Politics currently have it razor close but they have Trump up by 0.2%.
87 days to Trumps inauguration
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And how many of them have you surveyed.
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Obama is having a great go at Trump now in Georgia. 
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Wisconsin was even further off than MI and PA in 2020. Pills had Biden running away with by over 8% and barely squeaked by with a tenth of that margin, 0.8%.
There is talk that pollsters are running a bit shy after the last two rounds and may be over correcting in Trumps favor now. But who the fuck knows?
Literally no result would surprise me right now, except maybe a Trump landslide, I find that one a bit unlikely.
Harris narrow win - not unlikely
Trump narrow win - not unlikely
Harris comfortable win (wins by couple states and PV) - not unlikely.
Trump comfortable win (wins by couple states and PV) - not unlikely
Harris landslide (wins by lots of states and big PV margin - not unlikely
Trump landslide (wins by lots of states and big PV margin - donât see that
EC tie - unlikely, too many stars have to align.
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Very interesting perspective here
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Close to a million
Has he anything positive to say about kamala?
I see bill gates is up in court for telling lies about vaccines.
No overstatement needed
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Hereâs some new material for this podcast:
https://twitter.com/LincolnsBible/status/1849683020371898447
Elon Muskâs Secret Conversations With Vladimir Putin
Regular contacts between worldâs richest man and Americaâs chief antagonist raise security concerns; topics include geopolitics, business and personal matters
https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/musk-putin-secret-conversations-37e1c187
Full text of article in the following link:
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You could end up winning a Nobel peace prize cheaster
âIt doesnât matterâ when it comes from whites is pure white privilege.
Donald Trump will probably win it when himself Putin, Netanyahu, MBS, Xi and Modi purchase the Nobel Institute and move it to Riyadh.
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Could see it moving to Ratoath myself.