Whatever happened in the last few seconds sheās gone 2.5 to 2.32 in a blink of an eye.
I do sense in the last few days that momentum has swung back towards Vice President Harris and sheāll just about get over the line. I reckon the blue wall of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will just about hold for her and maybe pick up Nevada as well.
Not sure about the rest but in PA, they (Democrats) were ahead yesterday by 380k votes, corresponding figure in 2020 was 1.1m at that moment in time. They won by 81k votes on the end (not sure of interference/late dump votes there).
Trump wins PA comfortably in 2024.
Trump gone 4/6
Most swing states usually go one way together. Out of the seven states, Iād imagine six at least will go one way.
Right now I wouldnāt be surprised if Harris takes all seven and possibly one or two other states she hasnāt been given a prayer in.
Iowa as already mentioned but Texas is the big one Iād be looking at in that regard. Florida and Ohio are possibles too. Hopefully thereās at least enough momentum for the Democrats to get Sherrod Brown over the line in the senate in Ohio.
It can happen even in a heavily polarised environment when you get the right momentum that a candidate can win states unexpectedly. Obama took Indiana and North Carolina in 2008 when he wasnāt given a hope in either.
I canāt overstate how much of a bombshell that Iowa poll is. Ann Selzer is universally considered to be the only poll of Iowa that matters. If Trump really is three points down in Iowa, heās done.
J. Ann Selzer is an American political pollster who is the president of the Des Moines, Iowa-based polling firm Selzer & Company, which she founded in 1996.[1][2] Her polls of Iowa voters have a reputation for being highly accurate, based on their performance in major elections from 2008 through 2020.[3][4] She has been described as āthe best pollster in politicsā by Clare Malone of FiveThirtyEight, which also gives Selzer & Company a rare A+ grade for accuracy.[2][5]
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Stick a fork in Trump, heās done
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I reckon Harris wins pulling up. The polling crowd all adjusted their algos for trump because they were made a show of in 2016, with a quiet trump vote. At this stage I reckon itās flipped and there is a quiet Harris vote and the pollsters are compensating the wrong way.
Trump will claim he won regardless and it will get messy
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Bill is getting more and more vindicated as the years go on.
When you think of what Trump has gotten away with since itās mad how standards have changed.
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Surely Covid would have had a huge impact
On that.
The margin matters. If Harris wins 270-268 itāll probably be stolen alright.
If itās 319-219, you wonāt steal that.
Maybe youāre right.
When faced with such close and even quandaries in a sporting context most lads will predict a draw. My own approach is to ask which team, etc. could absolutely collapse, and which team could absolutely hare off and win in a landslide. I dont see trump collapsing- theyāve thrown absolutely everything at him- sexual assault claims, defamation, the media, an assassination attempt ( just the crooks oneā¦the second one was probably a loner), fraud charges, bankruptcy, jail, impeachment, indictment, ridicule, russiagate etc. And the man just keeps coming back stronger. Add to that the fact that heās already made just about every gaffe known to man, its as if the only thing he cand do is self destruct.
And then youāve kamala. Couldnāt get past the first round of nominations in 2020, despite being the candidate chosen by wall st, silicon valley etc. Reportedly the most unpopular VP ever, clearly deeply and passionately uninterested in politics, people, the economy, foreign affairs etc, and seemingly drunk half the time. Essentially an imbecile.
BUT. The strategy with joe was to keep him in his basementā¦theyāre doing something similar with kamala, so she has that in her favour. But while it worked to get joe over the line, most people must realise that he/she have been an absolute catastrophe. So thereās that.
Anyway. I think trump could win in a landslide. The polls dont predict itā¦but theyve been colossally wrong before. I donāt expect them to be quite as wrong this time; people are a bit more likely to admit to voting for trump this time- then again, a lot of people might be just as embarrassed to admit to voting for harris?
Was a pleasant image on the timeline.
Youād happily go to a garden centre with her of a hungover Sundayā¦
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That poster is doped up on copium. Democrats were never going to fully match their early turn out from 2020 because the country is no longer fucked from Covid and there isnāt the same pressing need for people to vote early or by mail.
Trump boycotted early and mail in votes in 2020 but in 2024 has gone all in on it. Trump couldnāt fail to surpass his early and mail in vote totals from 2020 by a significant amount this time because he instructed his supporters to use these methods this time.
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And now 2.28. Take a fair nail to do that.
Harris for Texas at 17/2 is the big one Iād be looking at. Harris may not win Iowa but if that poll is anywhere close to reality and given Selzerās consistent accuracy in polling Iowa Iād be surprised if itās not, that pattern is likely to be repeated in comparable states.
5.58% was Trumpās margin over Biden in Texas in 2020.
8.99% was Trumpās margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
15.79% was the margin Romney had over Obama in 2012.
Those are some serious shifts. On top of the further natural closing of the margin youād expect Harris to make on Trump since 2020, there could be a real sizeable shift going on which pushes Harris over the top in Texas.
Colin Allred is also running a very good campaign for the senate in Texas and Ted Cruz is highly unpopular. This helps Harris too.
I think she is probably the second worst candidate that has ever been put out in recent memory. The only thing she has going for her is she is up against the worst
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You donāt get it mate. Trump is a hand grenade that people think needs thown into the machine. And theres certainly an argument that low cunning will often triumph over high intelligence, and kamala isnāt intelligent
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