US Presidential Election Campaign 2012

Obama kicked this off yesterday with a tweet apparently. How very modern.

Anyone got any idea who he’ll be running against? Mitt Romney (2nd last time) and Mike Huckabee (3rd last time) seem to be the frontrunners. Newt Gingrich got a mention somewhere I read and Sarah Palin is probably considering it (or one of her pals anyway). Naked Cowboy Robert John Burck is the main opponent so far.

Hard to see Obama being beaten despite the poor ratings. His approval measure is on the way up (still I think) and the Tea Party movement has probably split rather than galvanised the party.

From what I gather Rocko there is no clear Republican candidate yet, no chance Palin will get the nomination anyway, she’s starting to be seen for the mentaller that she is.

I’d expect Newt Gingrich to get the nod. He won’t beat Obama anyway who will probably start to come out of his rut as the economy picks up.

Was reading yesterday that Obama is hoping to raise $1bn for his campaign, that’s a phenomenal amount of money to spend.

That is obsene, and the yanks will see nothing wrong with that…

gingrich is some piece a shit,one of these evangelical christans who bangs on about the bible all the time yet has been married 3 times, and if i remember correctly served his wife divorce papers while she was in hospital having cancer treatment while he was banging his secretary and trying to impeach clinton,id say tim pawlenty has a good shout of the nomination

Huckabee I reckon. Obama didn’t win by a landslide the last time, a number of states were 51/49 to 53/47. But if the economy starts to pick up he will win handily.

huchabees got a handy gig with fox news these days i doubt hell even run,wouldnt be surprised to see that giuliani cunt crawling out from under some rock

Huckabee’s unbelieveably persuasive speaking manner and all round nice guy persona can fool a lot of people into forgetting that he is a total nutcase

thats true hes got this “aw shucks” bullshit goin on that fools a lot a people,most of the republicans are batshit but more so in the primaries because they have to run so far to the right to get the nomination theyll say anything to please the religious nutjobs that make up most of the voters in the early primaries

I’m really looking forward to the Republican primaries. The advent of the Tea Party means they’ll have to go incredibly hard right in some States, especially the caucus ones I’d imagine. Some of the insane shit they come out with should be very entertaining, especially when whoever wins has to live with it come the General Election when they are searching for more moderate votes.

Romney will have a shitload of money and will say whatever he thinks is necessary to get elected. It’s incredibly transparent though. He’ll also run hard against ‘Obamacare’ in spite of the fact that he introduced almost the exact same system when Governor of Massecheussets. You couldn’t rule him out though, due to money and name recognition. Can’t see Gingrich getting it myself, his time as Speaker isn’t very fondly remembered. Can only echo sid’s sentiments on Huckabee. Did I hear he’s got fat again? That could actually really work against him, because he used to make a virtue of the fact that he lost a load of weight. I think it was part of the Southern Baptist obsession with rebirth. Santorum and Pawlenty will be hanging around. Santorum is a piece of work actually. Is Bobby Jindal still seen as a viable candidate? They were excited about him a couple of years ago because he was a high profile Republican that wasn’t white, but I think it turned out that he was a bit useless. Ron Paul will actually probably poll quite well again, better than last time. The Tea Party nuts love him. I doubt Rudy will run again, and I don’t think Palin will run either. In short, I don’t have a clue but I think it should be a good laugh and Obama will be re-elected relatively comfortably, carrying most of the States he carried last time.

i dont mind ron paul he talks a lot of sense at times like keeping american troops at home and not interfering in conflicts all over the world then he just comes out with some nonsense about how nobody should pay tax but no explaination as to how to pay for public services thats when he loses a lot of voters

There are some people in America who simply don’t believe in public services - they believe that everything should be privatised ie police, fire service, all essential public services. Therefore you get incidents like this:
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/the-perils-of-privatizing-government.aspx

In other news Glenn Beck’s Fox News show is to end after his ratings fell from 2.9million to 1.8 million in a year

Yer man should have paid the $75.

Apparently he started the fire himself to see would the fire service put it out, the dumbass.

These boys didn’t pay the $75 either.
http://www.fukthe.us/burnit.jpg

Barrup.

Gingrich hasn’t a hope, too much history. Huckabee and Romney would be the front runners, with Ron Paul an outside chance (he is by the way an odious racist cunt). Palin, FFS, anyone who even suggests she is in the running is clearly mental.

What about John Boehner? If he triumphs in the current budget fiasco, he could be the senior man.

I expect the Tea Party fanatics to have lost a lot of power and influence by the time the election comes around. They’re high profile and loud of course, but represent a small minority of the voting public. The GOP will do everything they can to dilute them as they try to appeal to the centre, undecided voters.

Obama will win the election anyway, as the economy picks up and he brings more troops home.

Hard as it is to believe, it’s possible that Donald Trumps ‘candidacy’ may just have been a publicity stunt. He’s officially out of the running now. At least he got a good public humiliation at the Correspondents’ Dinner out of it.

US tycoon Donald Trump says he will not run for the US presidency in 2012, declaring he is not ready to leave the private sector.

On Monday, he said he could win but “business is my greatest passion”.

In recent months, the real estate mogul and reality television star had loudly questioned whether President Barack Obama was born in the US.

The media attention that gained and his already high name recognition boosted him to the top tier of candidates.

In a statement on Monday, Mr Trump said that through his “unofficial” campaigning, he had come to realise that “running for public office cannot be done half heartedly”.

Mr Trump, who hosts the reality television programme Celebrity Apprentice, made his announcement on Monday as the NBC television network rolled out its line-up of forthcoming shows.

Prior to the announcement, NBC said it would bring back the programme with a different host if Mr Trump ran for president.

The New York businessman had been flirting with a presidential bid for months, even travelling to early primary states like New Hampshire.

Last month, Mr Trump demanded that Mr Obama release copies of his birth certificate, adding fuel to rumours among certain groups that the president was not born in the US.

The president ultimately released the certificate, and Mr Trump took credit for forcing Mr Obama’s hand.

Had he run, Mr Trump would have had to make significant disclosures about his financial interests and undergo scrutiny of his business activities, and analysts had suggested that prospect could dissuade a candidacy.

And Mr Trump’s tumultuous personal life - played out in past decades across the pages of New York’s tabloid newspapers - his ideological inconsistency, his reputation as a showman and his lack of political experience could have proven problematic for serious-minded and doctrinaire Republican primary voters.

Mr Trump’s news comes only days after Mike Huckabee, a Republican and former governor of the US state of Arkansas, announced he would not seek the Republican nomination for the presidency.

Former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Congressman Ron Paul both announced their intention to run last week.

Other potential Republican 2012 candidates include former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, former Utah Governor and US ambassador to China Jon Huntsman and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.

Of those, only Mr Romney and Mr Pawlenty have taken the first official step towards a candidacy, by forming exploratory committees to test the waters and begin raising money.

looks like DSK will be spending a bit of time in the US in the next couple of years. Maybe he’ll throw his hat in the ring

Huckabee’s dropped out, you would have to think that Romney and, unbelievably, Gingrich, are the front runners now.

Obama will win by a higher margin at this rate, thank jaysus.

Bad weekend for Tea Party. Unlikely to have too much of an effect on their core vote but might cost them some moderate votes - though how moderates could contemplate voting for Bachmann in the first place is beyond me.

Life lesson for Michele Bachmann: read the small print if ‘slavery’ appears

Michele Bachmann had been doing so well. The tea-party darling from Minnesota is almost neck and neck with Mitt Romney as favourite for the Republican nomination for next year’s presidential race.

So far she’s largely avoided the pitfalls that Sarah Palin stumbled into in the 2008 White House race, while enjoying almost Palinesque outpourings of adulation on the campaign trail. That is until this weekend when she walked right into a row over slavery.

She clearly didn’t see it coming. Last week she became the first Republican candidate to sign a “marriage vow” put forward by an evangelical group in the electorally crucial state of Iowa. At a cursory glance, it seemed a no-brainer: to pledge herself to the sanctity of marriage and family. She is openly opposed to gay marriages, and has five children as well as having fostered 23 others. Marriage, family – no problem!

But then the details of the pledge were picked up on the blogosphere, notably a clause in it referring to slavery. As Politico pointed out, the preamble of the pledge contains this phrase:

“Slavery had a disastrous impact on African-American families, yet sadly a child born into slavery in 1860 was more likely to be raised by his mother and father in a two-parent household than was an African-American baby born after the election of the USA’s first African-American President.”

As a general matter of course, it is not a good idea for American politicians to stray into the subject of slavery unless they’ve done a great deal of homework and are extremely confident about what they are saying. And as intelligent commentary on slavery goes, the preamble missed the target by miles. As Alexandra Petri put it in the Washington Post:

“Now you go and sign a pledge that includes a statement that can be summarized “gee, slavery was terrible for slaves, but at least they grew up in two-parent households?” There might have been two parents there, but that doesn’t really improve your family situation if the children are being treated like property. Do we really want to go down this path?”

Anger was quick to follow. On the black political blog Jack & Jill Politics, Cheryl Contee was livid:

“Given that families were broken up regularly for sales during slavery and that rape by masters was pretty common, this could not be more offensive. I mean, putting aside the statistics on this, which are likely off-base, I could not be more angry. When will Republicans inquire with actual Black people whether or not we’re ok with invoking slavery to score cheap political points? It has to stop.”

When the full scale of the internet backlash was clear, the Iowa group that devised the pledge, the FAMiLY LEADER removed the paragraph on slavery. But the damage had been done, in that Bachmann, as well as her fellow presidential candidate Rick Santorum, had already signed the unexpurgated version.

To rub salt into the wound, Nate Silver, the New York Times’s razor-sharp political statistician, pointed out on his Twitter account that the highly dubious claim about black families had in fact come from a research paper from the Institute for American Values that referred to the period 1880-1910 and had nothing to do with slavery in any case.

With seven months to go before the Iowa caucuses, Bachmann still has a long way to go before she gets to the nomination, let alone the White House. So this may come as a salutary lesson for her: before you sign anything, read the small print.

:lol: :lol:

That’s fucking hilarious. Huntsman is the only Republican candidate that seems to have even the slightest grip on sanity, and his chances of getting the nomination are as close to zero as you could imagine. I’d be more worried about their posturing on not raising the debt ceiling than crazy marriage pledges though. That situation is getting fairly dangerous.