Wheelbarrows of notes being exchanged for psyllium husks
With the amount of marriage break ups there will be loads of people looking for quick sales. You would want a very robust marriage not to experience a lot of turbulence during these times.
But where will the other half go?
Parents gaff
Not so sure. We are already seeing lots of supply issues which is part of the reason prices have been fairly high, and I think we could see people sitting on houses for another 2-3 yrs until prices recover, houses they’d planned to sell. They may have been upgrading themselves but this may spook people to their senses, and they decide to hold. So I could see even less supply than before and therefore prices holding up better than expected.
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The last crash was in two ohh eight.It was a few years before houses got chaape.Divorce and repossession takes time.Hold tight.
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It’s all making sense now, newborn isn’t easy on a marriage either. Stay strong Johnny.
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There’s no such thing as repossession here, the banks don’t turf people out of houses who can’t pay back their loans. That’s what we saw last time. So in a way there is little disinsentive for people to spend at the max of their means on a house.
Yep. We nearly bought a house in '11. Had the mortgage approval and looked at loads of places. Were about to put some bids in, and then made the decision that we weren’t ready (subsequently this was the right decision as we had a few years of hardship ahead after that). One house I’d seen for around the 240k mark was down to 190ish by 2012. Houses in same area were back up around 350-380ish by 17/18.
It’ll take a few years to bottom out, if it does, but prices will go down a little bit in the next year.
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You have to roll with the punches JS. a good 20 minute walk every morning and evening can work wonders.
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Plenty of riding helps too tbh.
A good way to finish off the day with so much uncertainty in the world
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My thought would be that prices will dip in two to three years time. Currently there is still a shortage of supply and high demand. Some buyers will be in unexpected difficulty now and putting plans on hold but I’d have thought in the short term the lack of supply will hold up prices. Two to three years time as increased supply starts to come on stream, combined with a dip in earnings generally over that period and prices should start to moderate or dip.
Or am I way off?
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Yeah I more or less said the same thing further up. I think maybe a moderate reduction in prices at most in the short term with maybe one year at least until we see bigger drops. But even at it’s worst case (circa 2010-2011) did prices fall more than 10-15%? I think that was about the height of it.
Prices fell about 40 per cent and more for some houses in GFC. A slow decline from 2008 to 2012 or so.
It took 18-24 months for them to fall 25%.
In the last crash you had a lot of investment properties and properties with huge debt on them - I don’t think that’s the case this time round and as been pointed out it’s takes years to repossess a home if the owners just stop paying.
We’re currently sale agreed on a house in Dublin and we reckon we’ll proceed with it. Significant price drops will take a decent while to come through, supply will dry up initially and anyway we reckon decent houses in decent condition in attractive areas will drop the least and the slowest - so it could take years before you find a suitable home at a worthwhile discount. Seems too long to put life on hold for.
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You also have to factor in age and mortgage length and as you get older you have an increased chance of illness which could rule you out of a mortgage or lead to very increased mortgage insurance.
Trying to buy at bottom of a market is a fools errand.
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Not that I’d know much about it. But looking from the outside I hear things are moving terribly slow. Even slower than usual. Hard to get anything done.
Surveyors refusing to call to houses. No approval meetings. No decisions being made. Just slow, slow.
Luck plays a big part in getting a cheap house.I picked one up in 2013 for X amount .The bank had taken possession as the couple had split up and left the house empty.Id a few small jobs to do which no doubt put off other buyers.I sold it in 2018 for double what I paid.I was in the right place at the right time.
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This will be a very difficult one to call. So many different factors.
Supply will be hit in the short term obviously, but it’s the question of the stuff that’s supposed to start in the next few months that’s out there. Plenty of cash flooding the market but is there still the confidence?
You’d naturally expect a drop off in demand with so many unemployed and potentially for a long period. That has will further impact on people relatively unaffected right now, through the forms of redundancies and pay cuts.
I’d expect there’s been some degree of re-migration here in the last few weeks though. Many of those people will think it’s short term but it could kick out a while with the world under this. Younger people out for their jollies won’t be going back anytime soon and nor will the ones planning them. Good bit of extra rental demand there.
If this really kicks out and causes a dramatic change in tourism, will hotels stay as they are? You’d imagine there would be some re-purposing of places being build not and existing stock if possible.
It’s a new world after all.
On the latter, the people who moaned about every hotel application and Air BnB might just see their dream come true. They will be left scratching their heads at the unemployment rate caused by it though.
Huh?