:rolleyes:
I would rather lay France at evens to top their group than back them. I think a better bet in that group could be South Africa to qualify at just over 2/1.
I disagree Mickey. I think the French are by no means assured of qualifying for the second round. They struggled in their group, and struggled to beat an organised Ireland side. Add that to the fact that they all seem to hate Domenech and i can see them not having the happiest of times in SA. They are still looking for a system that suits them a week before the first game. No doubt they have talent and should get through but I think there’s a lot of doubt over them, enough to prevent me from wading in. Certainly don’t think they’ll roll over Mexico easily.
Some decent value in winner/top goalscorer doubles. Spain/David Villa is 16/1. Brazil/Luis Fabiano is 25/1. Have put a score on Brazil/ David Villa at 50/1.
Some decent bets on here.
I was reading the Sindo over the weekend [the mother bought it] and there was a small section about World Cup predictions.
One of the questions asked is what is the best bet available.
The one that caught my eye was “World cup red cards - 28 or more 10/1”
Now I found the bet on betfair.
I also played around with the figures a bit to see what happened in the past few World Cups and the past few years of the Premier League.
World Cup 2006 Red Cards: 28
World Cup 2002 Red Cards: 17
Premier League:
Red Cards
2009-2010 68
2008-2009 63
2007-2008 61
2006-2007 53
I feel that both of the markets are worth looking at.
The rules on betfair are as follows:
One Yellow Card = 1 Card
Straight Red Card = 1 Card
One Yellow + Straight Red = 2 Cards
Two Yellow Cards resulting in One Red Card = 2 Cards
It is a bit of a spread market on Betfair.
The best I could find was the bet that the guy had said above.
28 and above 10.5.
PaddyPower have a market on yellow cards which seem to include all Red Cards:
Player must be on the pitch at time of yellow card for it to count.
A red card will count as two yellow cards for the purposes of this market.
The most yellow cards a player can get in a match is two.
Settled according to results on www.fifa.com.
The odds are:
Over 290.5 Cards 5/6
By my reckoning there were around 335 such cards in 2006 according to the PaddyPower and Betfair systems.
And a Red Card Market:
Over 19.5 Red Cards 5/6
I’m tempted to bet solidly on the 2 over Paddy Power Odds and have a small pop off the 10.5 28+ bet on Betfair.
My main bet for the world cup(at least until after the groups as if this goes belly up doubt I’ll risk more)
is 150euro double with Ladbrokes, Portugal and USA to qualify from their groups. Pays 380.77
back.
Two good full backs, good keeper, Toulalan is a decent holding midfielder, Ribery, Anelka, Malouda all fine players. Gourcuff should be alright against the shit teams. Would worry about them at centre half and up front.
Hopefully Gallas and Henry will have one last hurrah left in them. Not overly worried about the manager. He is off after the World Cup so the players shouldnt be too bothered about him. They got to a final under his stewardship last time out dont forget.
Mexico are a mess defensively Juhn. France should have far too much for them physically. With France it is all on the first game. I was just looking at the prices of France to win the group compared to similar sides like Germany and England. For me Germany are in a more difficult group but a good bit shorter. England are scrabbling around for a formation too but again a good deal shorter. Felt France were good value at evens as a result.
Hate those kind of bets.
Agreed. Awful, awful bets. I won’t be going near any of those markets. I’ll also stay away from the outright market i think. I think the best value is to be had in the groups.
cheers- was going to get stuck into a few outright bets but will stay away now - saved a few €€€€€€€€€€s
Japan to be top Asian/Oceania team @ 9-4 [Blue Square]
They showed enough against England to suggest they will not be rolled over easily
That’s placing a fair bit of reliance on a friendly though. Their recent results (albeit some of which are friendlies) are not good at all. They’ve been really struggling since they qualified.
I think South Korea and Australia are both better teams, what happens if there are two teams eliminated at the same stage? Do they split the odds or is it a loss?
Can’t be having this River. They’re in a tough group with Holland, Denmark and Cameroon. I can’t see them winning a game. They’re not good at the back and will struggle to score in every game. I think you’re pissing that cash away.
Done an Accum for Spain, England, Brazil, Holland and Agentina to win their groups. Pays out 4.5 to 1.
I’ll be taking England on in this World Cup. They’ll be a hilarious flop.
…
right
dont get me started on that brazil to win 2-1 and robinho to score 10 euro will get you 280 type of thing,
i used to make those bets up for a firm used to work for and anyone who puts money on these whilst sober needs shooting.
on the tournament
ive a few bets dowm already
ive 50 EW ( 1/2 1,2) on Holland at 11-1.
the way i work it out they will need to negotiate Slovakia, Brazil and England in that order to get to a final against Spain
their atatck of Kuyt,Van persie, Huntelaar will score goals,Robben , Scneider and Van DerVaart are decent creative players also.
their defense looks bad with Boularhouz, Heitiga and Van Bronkhorst not exactly the most intimidating set up but im hoping Total Football will win out.
elsewhere.
im on slovakia to qualify from their group at 2-1.
and australia NOT to score against Germany at EVEN money. i have yet to be convinced of the hype surrouding the aussies, and for now i will trust my instinct that they are what they are and that is shite.
other bets i want to price are
1.An african team NOT to make the second round.
2.Denmark to reach the quater finals ( i see them meeting and beating Italy in the second round).
3, ive a horrendus feeling that the french will do well, they are way overpriced to beat Uruguay at 6-5 on friday night if Forlan is out
4.Greece to qualify from their group ( otto Rehagal knows the score , you heard it from me), they will play france in the second round hence my feeling the french area dark horse
This is all worth noting people. Nice post Mick. I will put forward my own selections tomorrow.
I wasn’t aware that France were 6/5 shots against Uruguay. That does seem big, and especially so if there are doubts surrounding Forlan. Is he injured?
Any opinion on the 13/2 available on the USA to shock England on Saturday? Even 10/3 for a draw? Does anyone think that England could fuck things up this early?
currnetly 11.5 on betfair…had a good cut off it the other day