I have ruled out;
Italy(not motivated enough after winning last time)
Germany (not good enough)
Holland (too brittle of body and mind)
England (it’s just fucking wrong)
from the biggies.
Which only leaves Spain, Brazil, Argentina, whichever African team comes good.
My money is on Brazil at 5-1. It’s in their blood and they didn’t win the last one. They’re solid as fuck and will surely score enough.
Argentina shouldn’t because of Maradona but it would be beautiful…
Some value I’ve noted in the topscorer charts
40-1 Tevez
The top scorer invariably bags a hat trick early on against a shite side. While Nigeria, south Korea and Greece are not shite, I can see the Argies cutting someone up good. If Tevez stays on form, he’s likely to be that man. 40’s is very tempting…
Likewise, Nilmar is nicely priced at 25’s if he gets a decent run.
120 on Brazil 5/1
10 e.w USA 80/1
20 on Messi top scorer 10/1
10 on Robben top scorer 66/1
20 Spain-Brazil final 11/1
30 England to get knocked out at Semi-finals 7/2.
Thats my lot B)
Holland to win - 12/1 is cracking value. Should be 7 or 8s max.
I think Spain could slaughter a couple of teams in the group stages so David Villa could have the golden boot wrapped up early on. The Honduras game has turkey shoot written all over it. 9/1 is a decent price.
The thing about the NZ bet is that the last game in that group - Paraguay v NZ could be a dead rubber so a draw might be likely.
The African teams look pretty shit but I think the Ivory Coast could come through their group. Portugal look very average.
I might lay England for their first game too against the US. Capello holding trials to see who his keeper, striker, central midfielder will be at this stage aint a great sign. Will probably lay Germany for their first game too. They are too short at 8/15 to beat the Aussies. Would be hoping for a run for my money in any case.
Betting is a game of opinions fitzy and I appreciate you have your reasons for thinking this may not be a good combo of bets ,
Ill try and briefly give my reasons
-1 slovakia to qualify at 7-4
NZ and paraguay are 2 bad sides ( we will see more of how poor Paraguay are in the RDS later), id even fancy slovakia to stifle the Italians and get a 0-0,
This is a NAP bet for me
-2. no African team to get past the quarter finals
If anyone of you watched the African nations cup you would understand.
Egypt are by far and away the best African team and they are not there.
Ivory coast fired their manager after the tournament and are extremely overrated, they are not a team (more just a group of very talented egotistic individuals) and any organised European outfight will have too much for them .
Algeria, and RSA wont make the second round,
Cameroon are the best african chance for a respectable showing, Ghana have a young team and will not do anything.
IMHO African football is very overrated right now, every 4 years a lot of commentators try to Attach a romantic aspect to the WC and cling to the hope that one of their teams will make a “breakthrough”, however this will not be happening in 2010.
-3. Australia
Now, if you can explain to me where an Australian goal is going to come from then I will reconsider this
They are a very very poor side fitzy,
I am aware games in Sydney against Bahrain may flatter to deceive but I am not convinced in any way about them
The Germans will give them a nice thumping, itll be a borefest 0/0 against he serbs and id have Ghana beat them 2-0…
-4. france
An outside shout but if they get a bit of luck who knows,
I’d be most inclined towards the Slovakian bet too. I’m not sure I’d be quite as dismissive as Paraguay but even still it’s possible to rule out NZ straight away so it comes down to Paraguay versus Slovakia and 7/5 is too good to turn down there.
African one depsnds on the price but looks likely. Egypt, as you say, are the best team in Africa and have been for some time. I think Ghana’s young team could be a surprise package if they weren’t overrated already. Don’t think there’s much coming from that group of teams alright.
I was considering backing Robinho to be top scorer at 33/1 also. Little bit under the radar after going back home and think that’s a big price (if it’s still available).
interesting point.
i know that “under the radar” is an overused cliche but sometimes in major tournaments it can be a factor.
that is why i think France could supruise a few people,
After the game in November most of the football world were talking about the injustice to ireland, etc.
ill be keeping a close eye on their final squad, pre tournament games and what Domenech is at but they still have the makings of a decent side, nobody is hyping them up unlike Spain and i have sneaking feeling that if the french hit the ground running anything can happen…
Interesting position on the Paraguayan people Rock.
I’ll jump on the Slovakia bandwagon as well. Although Paraguay are stronger than Mickee says and qualified well.
I’m not mad about the African bet as history has shown us the power of home advantage and we’ve heard all year that Supporters will get behind any African team on a roll. It might take till the semis for them to be found out to be naive at the back.
I’d also like to shout the odds of Greece to finish bottom of their group. 9-4 in a group with Argentina, South Korea and Nigeria. I think Nigeria will be stronger than people think and progress (good players, low expectation at present). If you follow this then it falls to a straight shitness shoot out between the Greeks and South Korea. While it is possible tht the Aegean armada will torpedo the Koreans, the Greeks struggle for goals apart from one lad. They look solid but shit. In this case 9-4 for failure is too big a price not to be nibbled. If only they put the country’s economic future on it.
Japan at evens to finsh bottom of their group is free money imo.
They’re weak of late and Denmark, Cameroon and Holland should all beat them handy.
Just the Australian one i was worried about not the others. To not score a goal in three games is a very hard bet to come up. Granted if they were a terrible team that got in through an extremely weak group but Australia are capable of getting results in that group. I’d be very surpised if they didnt score a goal.
Austrlia were pretty poor in qualifying now and scored fook all. Reasonably well organised defensively but they play one striker, Josh Kennedy who is pretty average. Could see Cahill grabbing a goal, maybe Kewell but I’d definitely be very curious to see the odds. Who has got em?
im heading to the ireland / paraguay game tonight so hopefully the paraguayans play a full hand so i can get a look at them and hopefully gain some insight.
ireland seem to have a decent team out so hopefully itll be a decent game all considered