Group B, the second group in an alphabetical listing of all 2014 World Cup groups, is a genuinely interesting group. It is probably the group with the best average seeding (though probably not if you think of the one with Germany and Portugal which I’d forgotten about) and, uniquely, all four teams are returning for their second successive tournament (also probably not unique because of that same group with Germany and Portugal). It includes the two finalists from the 2010 competition, a much improved Chile and an unlikeable Australian team that offers nothing much in the way of interest.
Spain
Spain, the perennial underachievers and winners of Euro 2008, World Cup 2010 and Euro 2012, enter the tournament under a cloud of expectation. For many barren years Spain collapsed under the burden of neutral punters’ money. The abjectness of their failures was in direct proportion to the hype that preceded them pre-tournament. By the time of the last World Cup the world had seen enough – the inevitable horror of losing money on Spain was restricted to the same population of people who bet on grey horses in the Grand National. So, free from the pressures of a million €10 bets, they finally triumphed on the world stage. Now that they’re the darlings of the punter once again, can they cope with the accompanying responsibility?
Iker Casillas will be Spain’s first choice goalkeeper despite being an irregular fixture in the Real Madrid side for the past couple of years. His demotion at club level owes much to the superlative form of Diego Lopez so there are no genuine concerns about any dramatic drop-off in his form. His experience at international level, particularly in marshalling much of the same defence for a long number of years, makes him rather more invaluable for the national side than for his club. The untimely injury for Valdes will rob him of a coveted relaxing place on the bench, leaving room for David De Gea to enjoy the junket beside Pepe Reina.
The key defensive question (for me, not for Del Bosque who probably knows the answer) is whether Sergio Ramos is asked to switch back to right back where Spain are a little short on quality. That would leave room for a very decent centre back partnership of Pique and Javi Martinez, with the latter’s involvement in the back four making room for the abundance of talents in midfield. Alternatively Azpilicueta may capitalise on an impressive season for Chelsea by earning that right back spot for himself and Ramos would be restored to the centre beside Pique. Raul Albiol will provide additional cover in each scenario. The left back slot is a touch more clear-cut: Jordi Alba is infinitely superior to Nacho Monreal who suffers a little from a lack of natural talent.
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Spain’s midfield is (obviously) ageing but there remains a nucleus of impressive talent and experience that is integral to Spain’s exciting/boring brand of football. The golden trio from Barcelona: Busquets, Xavi and Iniesta are certainly not be the force they once were, and their relative importance may have changed with Busquets assuming more responsibility in recent years. Xavi is clearly a player in decline, but that decline is from some lofty heights and it’s difficult to imagine his incomparable volume of passes being jettisoned by Del Bosque before or during the tournament. A more conservative selection would see Iniesta occupying an attacking role and Xabi Alonso slotting in beside Busquets, pushing Xavi forward to a more advanced role. That setup was used throughout Euro 2012, and may be suited to the warm Brazilian climate where possession could be even more important than usual.
One of the more entertaining aspects of watching Spain in recent seasons has been witnessing the open-mouthed, flabbergasted reactions of the English broadcast media who cannot fathom why Xabi Alonso and Fabregas are not the co-captains starring in every minute of every game for this team. Fabregas continues to struggle to earn the complete trust of his manager at international and club level, and may find himself again deployed as an occasional supplementary striker rather than a key cog in the midfield trio. Thiago’s injuries since Christmas will prevent him from starting the tournament as a first choice midfielder, while Koke is unlikely to feature much beyond the squad photos.
The most dramatic change for Spain since Euro 2012 is the sudden introduction of a natural top-class striker in Diego Costa. The Brazilian import is a controversial switch to Spain, benefiting from the residency rule from his time as a professional footballer in La Liga, which ranks bottom on the list of acceptable reasons to switch national allegiances. The transition has not been smooth for the Atletico Madrid striker. After playing twice for Brazil last year, he informed the Brazilian federation of his desire to play for Spain by letter, sparking a furious outburst from his home nation who have investigated the possibility of having his Brazilian citizenship forcefully revoked. After a couple of injury-enforced absences, he made his second full international debut earlier this year and provides Spain with a natural central outlet that they have lacked, but survived without, in recent tournaments.
The emergence of Diego Costa will relegate Alvaro Negredo to the bench, where he has some experience at this level. He is an energetic presence who can cause problems when introduced but he may find himself behind Fabregas too in the pecking order. Llorente is the other central option for Del Bosque but he may struggle to make the final squad. If Iniesta is deployed as one of the wide attackers then the final attacking role will fall between Pedro, possibly Fabregas and a plethora of diminutive and inconsistent creative talent based in England – Silva, Cazorla, Mata, Navas. Expect whoever wins that battle (probably Silva) to be the first player withdrawn in their opening fixture.
It’s fair to say that the Spanish team, and above all their midfield, are not as irrepressible-looking a force as they were two or four years ago. However, they retain one of the best goalkeepers in the world, a very strong looking back four, a midfield that is abundant in world-class options (Javi Martinez, Fabregas and Iniesta if Xabi Alonso, Busquets and Xavi isn’t working out) and they’ve added an in-form goalscorer that they were desperately lacking in Poland two years ago. As if by way of illustration of their strength in depth – here’s a starting eleven from players that aren’t even on the bench in the selections above but would still likely qualify from any group in the tournament:
Diego Lopez
Arbeloa – Puyol – Bartra – Juanfran
Javi Garcia – Mario Suarez – Isco
Tello – Llorente – Villa
Prediction: First place
Netherlands
Prepare to be underwhelmed, and not just by the quality of my writing. This isn’t a great team at all.
Holland don’t appear to have a top class goalkeeper. Michel Vorm and Tim Krul are the familiar names for the Anglocentric among us but the former is injury-prone and hasn’t bedded down his place in the team as a result, while the latter just hasn’t been selected all that often despite Joe Kinnear famously unearthing him long after he signed for Newcastle. The current first-choice goalkeeper appears to be Jasper Cillessen of Ajax who has only recently beaten out Kenneth Vermeer for that starting role at club level. It’s not an embarrassment of riches anyway but they’ll go with one of those aforementioned options, or maybe Maarten Stekelenburg.
The back four isn’t much more impressive. Apart from the very impressive Gregory Van der Wiel of PSG who is very good player indeed, though injuries have curtailed his involvement at club and international level this season. Ron Vlaar is a rather ordinary centre back but he’s the most experienced centre back available outside of the equally ordinary Johnny Heitinga who appears to be completely out of favour. Stefan de Vrij is Feyernoord’s captain at the tender age of 22 but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s any good. He looks likely to partner Vlaar in an unimposing appearing centre back partnership with the beautifully-named Bruno Martins Indi (another youthful Feyenoord defender) and a teenager from Ajax called Joel Veltman providing cover. (The familiar-sounding-because-he’s-the-son-of-Danny) Daley Blind will presumably play left back – he’s also rather ordinary in terms of talent and can operate in defensive midfield too, though not brilliantly. Jetro Willems was a spectacularly young talent surprisingly sprung into the Dutch team at Euro 2012 but damaged knee ligaments will force him to miss this tournament. So not much of a defence then.
The Netherlands midfield would look distinctly more impressive if it wasn’t shorn of the talents of Kevin Strootman – another star missing through a knee injury. Jordy Classie will probably play the pivotal central role in a 3 man midfield. He’s another 22 year old so he must be from Feyenoord. His superior passing skills appear to have given him an edge over Nigel De Jong, though the Milan midfielder may be allowed off the leash for the Spanish game to see if he can connect properly with Iniesta this time. Stijn Shaars was part of the 2010 and 2012 tournament squads but didn’t play a match. That’s likely to change this summer and it’s more a reflection on limited options available to Van Gaal then a sudden rejuvenation in the form of the 30 year old PSV midfielder. He seems best placed to replace Strootman, given the probable injury-enforced absence of Ajax captain Siem De Jong1 who had initially seemed to have locked down that coveted role of being best placed to replace Kevin Strootman if he gets injured.
[SIZE=3]1 This is based on out of date reports from untrustworthy websites. If you must know whether he’ll be fit in time for the World Cup, I suggest googling it.[/SIZE]
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The third midfield spot will presumably go to Wesley Sneijder, despite recent criticism of the Galatasaray player by Arjen Robben and a severe loss of form for the creative midfielder since the previous World Cup. Davy Klaasen is the alternative you’re likely not to have heard of. He’s a 21 year old midfielder who plays with Ajax and won his first cap a couple of months ago. Rafael van der Vaart will be hoping his poor form and a recent injury don’t rule him completely out of contention, but if the Hamburg midfielder is selected he’s not likely to be a starting option. Not long ago Holland were concerned about packing Nigel De Jong, Kevin Strootman, Wesley Sneijder and Rafael Van der Vaart into the same team. For a variety of reasons, that quartet doesn’t carry the same awesome aura anymore.
There is at least a bit more sustained talent in the Dutch forward line where the central striker role will be a straight shoot-out between the injury plagued Robin Van Persie and the injury plagued Klaas Jan Huntelaar. The latter has probably shown slightly better form this season and has the benefit of being fit since January but Van Persie was excellent in qualifying, top scoring in Europe with 11 goals in Netherlands’ impressive but straightforward qualifying campaign.
Arjen Robben will play on one flank, presumably the right. The Bayern Munich winger has arguably been one of the top 3 players in Europe for 2 seasons in a row and his proven talents and match-winning ability make him the most valuable component of this squad. When Van Gaal needs to go for broke he will presumably opt for Huntelaar and Van Persie in the same team, but until then Dirk Kuyt and Memphis Depay (at either ends of the ability age spectrum) will probably compete with Jeremain Lens standing by to add some much needed mediocrity to the Dutch attack. I’d forgotten completely about Ibrahim Afellay until just now – I either missed his name in recent squads or he’s as important a player for the Netherlands as he is for Barcelona.
The word that springs to mind in assessing the talent available to Louis Van Gaal is: ordinary. And that might be being kind. If they weren’t called Holland and playing in orange they’d probably be given no chance of being serious contenders for this tournament. It would be easy to write-off young talents completely on the spurious basis that they’re not familiar to Irish audiences, so I’ll take that option. Van Gaal is looking around for his next job before this tournament because they over-achieved in qualifying. They have a shaky back four, a forgettable midfield populated by tidy but unspectacular young players and arrogant underperforming older players. They do have some terrific talent up front but it’s not going to be enough to even get them out of their group.
Prediction: Third place.
Chile
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Having concluded that Holland are likely to finish third, this piece on Chile will be carefully orchestrated to present them in a mostly favourable light. This will hopefully justify the arbitrary decision to award them second place before arriving at any sort of familiarity with their squad.
Real Sociedad’s Cladio Bravo is the undisputed first choice goalkeeper and captain of Chile. He’s accomplished and experienced and there isn’t much more to say about him, or indeed any of the other keepers in recent squads. For now, it’s enough to say he’s not a weakness.
Chile famously adopted a 3-3-1-3 formation under the stewardship of Marcelo Bielsa and that system is seemingly used intermittently by his disciple2, and current Chilean coach, Jorge Sampaoli. It would take an awful lot of research/googling to figure out if that’s the look they are expected to opt for in Brazil, but it’s certainly the most attractive for the bluffing hipster so we’ll proceed with that formation in mind.
[SIZE=3]2. Sampaoli, like Bielsa, is Argentinian. I have no evidence to prove/contradict they have ever met, worked together, coached together, coached against eachother or even know what type of formation the other favours. But Bielsa is the type of coach who has disciples so it’s a reasonable guess that Sampaoli didn’t pluck 3-3-1-3 out of thin air.[/SIZE]
Two of the central defensive positions will likely be manned by two English -based players (if you count Cardiff as English for no apparent reason other than to assist with narrative flow). Gary Medel has been part of an underperforming Cardiff side this season but he’s a talented and hard-working player who will probably move to centre back for his national team despite featuring more regularly in midfield at club level in recent seasons. He’s short for a centre back and this might be a concern because the most obvious candidate to play alongside him is Nottingham Forest’s Gonzalo Jara. He’s another player who isn’t an out and out centre back but there is a shortage of natural central defenders in the Chile setup with regular starter Marcos Gonzalez currently without a club and likely to be relegated to the bench as a result. That leaves the last spot for Eugenio Mena of Santos. He doesn’t seem to be a centre back either but I’ve run out of names to slot into the back three, and one of the recurring themes of the 3-3-1-3 under Bielsa anyway was the selection of midfielders and full backs as central defenders.
The midfield trio will comprise a holding midfielder and two slightly wider players – at least one of whom will be a wing-back to allow the team to switch to a back four if required. The holding player will be Carlos Carmona of Atalanta who has been a lynchpin of this team since Bielsa’s reign. Arturo Vidal can operate either side of him and his versatility and comfort in any one of seven positions is a critical strength for Chile. Vidal is equally comfortable breaking up play as he is supporting the attack or creating chances. He will likely be paired with clubmate Mauricio Isla in the shuttle positions, allowing Vidal the freedom to get forward centrally with Isla offering more width and positional stability.
Midfield is where Chile are richest with options. Marcelo Diaz, a favourite of the Sampaoli apparently, could easily replace Isla and offers the same flexibility as a midfielder or full back. Charles Aranguiz is a more creative alternative to either of those two, or he can play deeper instead of Carmona if Chile are chasing the match. They have a handful of other players you won’t have heard of but are probably important characters in the dressing room.
The attacking midfielder position is a straight competition between Matias Fernandez of Fiorentina and Jorge Valdivia of Palmeiras. The latter is older, has fewer caps, has already spent a couple of seasons plying his trade in the UAE and is far less heralded to European audiences. To the ill-informed it looks like Fernandez is the obvious starter but those of us more familiar with Sampaoli’s outlook would be very surprised if Valdivia didn’t get the nod. He’s the attacking fulcrum this side is built on and will be entrusted with the creative responsibilities from the start.
Eduardo Vargas will lead the line for Chile. The 24 year-old Valencia striker is probably more comfortable as a wide player in the three man forward line but Chile have an abundance of players on the outside and fewer options centrally. He failed to settle in Italy after a big money move to Napoli and has spent the last couple of seasons on loan (first in Brazil, now with Valencia). He’s no Marcelo Salas (or even Humberto Suazo) but he’ll probably be helped by rotating with other wingers in that central role. Alexis Sanchez is probably the biggest name in this team (though Vidal is much the better player). The Barcelona attacker has pace to burn and is perfectly suited to a 3 man forward line. Joining those two in the starting lineup will be one of Fabian Orellana (Celta Vigo winger), Jean Beausejour (Wigan’s gloriously inconsistent winger) or someone else who doesn’t feature as prominently on the Chile National Football Team Wikipedia page.
Chile were much hyped ahead of the 2010 World Cup because of a strong squad, a respected manager and an unusual formation. The manager has departed but the players have matured in the intervening years – particularly Vidal who is among the top midfielders in the world. They have a strangely high number of players who are comfortable in a few different positions which makes their formation very fluid, but they generally adopt an attacking style and allow their midfielders to support 4 advanced players. They may find Spain’s possession game too much (though expect them to play a back four against Spain’s wider attack) but having already concluded that they’ll finish second, their pace in attack should be enough to triumph over an inexperienced Dutch back four.
Prediction: Second Place
Australia
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There is something distinctly unlikeable about the Australian soccer team. They have an arrogance that is completely out of step with their very mediocre soccer history. Having qualified for a grand total of three World Cups, they decided they had outgrown their continent and opted to play in Asia. The label prima donna doesn’t even come close to explaining the self-adulation exhibited by Harry Kewell, Mark Viduka et al. In short they suffer from delusions of grandeur. In Home and Away parlance they have tickets on themselves.
They have a collection of nobodies competing for the goalkeeper’s shirt. Chelsea backup Mark Schwarzer appears to be out of favour or retired so Matthew Ryan of Club Brugge, Brad Jones of Liverpool and Mitchell Langerak of Dortmund are in the mix for the starting role. Only one of those plays regularly at club level – unsurprisingly it’s the lad at Brugge. He’ll start.
The heady days of Kevin Muscat, Craig Moore and Lucas Neill have long since passed unfortunately and Australia require a whole new set of overpaid, undertalented journeyman thugs to take their place. Matthew Spiranovic is the first choice centre back for the Socceroos3. He’s playing with the Western Sydney Wanderers after forgettable spells in Germany, one of those Middle-Eastern leagues and then Japan. Ange Postocoglou (current Australian coach and no relation to Leah from Home and Away) has opted against partnering him with the aforementioned Lucas Neill who is still playing, albeit very infrequently. The veteran imposter made a desperate effort to make the squad, scrambling around England for a club before finally settling on Doncaster Rovers, but he won’t be picked for the World Cup in spite of his gallant efforts. That leaves the door open for Rhys Williams of Middlesboro to partner Spiranovic in the centre of defence. Central cover will probably be provided by Curtis Good of Dundee United. He only made his Australian debut in March and has about a dozen appearances in English and Scottish soccer in two seasons to his name. Neill must have been completely unfit.
[SIZE=3]3. Does anything sum up the annoying nature of Australian soccer better than the word Socceroo? It’s contrived, “matesy” and a perfect embodiment of the cultural desert that is Australia.[/SIZE]
There is a bit more substance to the full-backs at least. Luke Wilkshire’s best years are behind him, and they weren’t all that special to begin with, but at least he has an international and club pedigree. He may not even start though with Ivan Franjic of Brisbane Roar pushing him hard apparently. But there’s no way they will overlook Wilkshire with the lack of experience elsewhere in the back five. The other full back spot is a straightforward battle between Jason Davidson of Heracles in the Netherlands and Ryan McGowan of a Chinese team and formerly of Hearts. McGowan isn’t much of a player so let’s assume Davidson will get the nod there.
Mile Jedinak is the star man in a midfield distinctly lacking in stars. The Crystal Palace defensive midfielder looks likely to be named Australian captain for the tournament. He’s about the only player in the squad who features regularly in a semi-decent European league and has done well to carve out a more than decent climax to what had been a relatively inauspicious career for the most part. Melbourne Victory’s Mark Milligan is his most likely and capable partner. He’s not dissimilar to Jedinak – he’s also defensive minded – and together they form a fairly robust but decidedly unambitious midfield pairing.
Completely contradicting my earlier point about the lack of regular players in European leagues, FC Utrecht’s Tommy Oar is the exciting young talent of Australian football who will provide pace and direct running from one wing. He seems to feature regularly enough for the Dutch side and his age profile fits well with the Australian manager’s stated desire to rejuvenate the national team. Matt McKay, Brisbane Roar’s Australian Marquee (whatever that is) has the most pedigree to feature on the other flank. He lasted about six months with the now defunct Rangers club in Scotland before moving to Korea, China and finally back to Australia where he’s found his level again.
Backing up that quartet is a list of underwhelming young midfielders. Tom Rogic won some competition or other when he was a teenager, dazzled all in Australia and moved to Scotland where he looked about as athletic as Lucas Neill. He’s lightweight and sluggish with a powerful shot. Dario Vidosic offers a little more creativity if Australia fancy mixing up their midfield, or if they choose to go with only one striker. James Holland is a non-entity really. Brett Holman featured prominently in this article until just moments ago when a google search revealed he has just retired. Expect Mark Bresciano to replace him as the mostly industrious but mildly creative veteran in the shake-up.
Australia aren’t short on attacking firepower, unless by attacking firepower you mean average or above-average forwards with a professional work ethic. Tim Cahill remains the main man for the Socceroos. He joined New York Red Bulls in the summer of 2012 and has scored 12 times in 39 games (Robbie Keane has 34 goals in 55 games in the same seasons). He is presumably still an aerial threat and there is no disputing his effectiveness in front of goal when at the top of his game, but at 34 years of age he’s been on a sharp decline for a number of seasons and doesn’t really look like threatening the established defences of Spain and Chile anyway. Partnering Cahill will be the lumbering Joshua Kennedy. The tall striker has cleverly decided to ply his trade in Japan where he is probably capitalising on his height more than his ungainly first touch. Kennedy has only recently returned to the starting lineup, (God knows at who’s expense) and if he’s played along with Cahill and in front of two defensive midfielders and two orthodox wingers there won’t be much mistaking the cultured, modern style of football Australia will be adopting. Matthew Leckie of 2. Bundesliga side FSV Frankfurt will provide a more youthful (and maybe more talented) option from the bench.
As attractive as all of the above sounds it’s just difficult to make a case for Australia progressing out of their group. They seem to have replaced one set of journeymen with a new set. The new breed at least aren’t overpaid at club level but that’s not going to be much help to their quest to qualify ahead of Spain, Chile and the Netherlands. They have a grossly inexperienced back four, a solid but spectacularly unspectacular midfield and a pair of ageing aerial threats up front. I’m not sure they’d finish second in the SPL. In fact I’m pretty sure they wouldn’t. They won’t qualify from this group either.
Prediction: Fourth place.
