New Zealand -58 for the Japan match without Carter?
Are the odds makers asleep at the wheel here?
11 matches so far.
10 have gone to the +points team. Samoa are the only -points team to win.
Japan had a very credible display against France.
Am I missing something here?
Are Japan playing their B-team or something?
Also England -37 against Georgia
Argentina -20 against Romania
Samoa let me down badly, I’ve been on most of the other handicaps.
Georgia were 44 on paddy power a few days ago, might be worth looking there, I’ve backed them.
Argentina sounds dodgy to me, even with the extra rest compared to the Romanians.
Fiji against south Africa might offer value.
I’d fancy the all blacks to come out after the criticism of the previous display and hockey Japan. Carter would make the spread manageable, with him out I’d stay away from it, too much of an unknown quantity.
McCaw and Muliaina alao out of Japan game. Down a few leaders.
EDIT You can also add Daag to that mix.
[quote=“cluaindiuic, post: 589049”]New Zealand -58 for the Japan match without Carter?
Are the odds makers asleep at the wheel here?
11 matches so far.
10 have gone to the +points team. Samoa are the only -points team to win.
Japan had a very credible display against France.
Am I missing something here?
Are Japan playing their B-team or something?[/quote]
I wouldn’t touch nz at that. But yes, think Japan have made wholesale changes. Slade is mor than capable replacement for carter for game like this. Also I think the margins will widen now the smaller teams are asked to play 2nd games quite quickly and fitness superiority will be a huge factor.
[quote=“cluaindiuic, post: 589050”]Also England -37 against Georgia
Argentina -20 against Romania[/quote]
Argues would be another steer clear for me. Doubt there style lends itself to wallopings.
I fancy Russia +8 this morn and will also back them outright at 12/5. Big ask for more or less the same 15 to play again 4 days later. Russians are improving also.
Just to be clear, I’d be backing all the underdogs with the handicap.
It seems to me that defense is something the shit teams can get right and that beating a team heavily is difficult to do nowadays.
[quote=“cluaindiuic, post: 589055”]Just to be clear, I’d be backing all the underdogs with the handicap.
It seems to me that defense is something the shit teams can get right and that beating a team heavily is difficult to do nowadays.[/quote]
Yeah figured that. Wasnt v clear myself. Wouldn’t touch Japan with the points either. Think too much to ask of there 2 nd string to have any confidence around having a bet. Think the other two are better I.e. Georgia Romania but again I think they are being asked to turn around v quickly. The fitness issue will definitely cause an increase in winning margins as the pools go on. Not many of these players will ever have played twice in 4/5 days in matches of anything like this intensity. Even in first round of games they all tired after 65/70 mins. Namibia good example yesterday
'Hon the cosmonauts!
Mike Tindall is in trouble:
Thursday September 15 2011
ENGLAND rugby captain and royal husband Mike Tindall was engulfed in scandal today with the publication of claims that he kissed and groped a blonde beauty in a nightspot while watching a dwarf throwing contest with friends.
He and other England[/url] rugby players piled on top of each other in an impromptu scrum on a boozy night out at a bar in [url=“http://searchtopics.independent.ie/topic/New_Zealand_national_football_team”]New Zealand to celebrate victory over Argentina in their opening World Cup match.
Pictures published on Facebook[/url] show Tindall and team mates Dylan Hartley and [url=“http://searchtopics.independent.ie/topic/Nick_Easter”]Nick Easter larking about in the bar.
Tindall married Queen Elizabeth[/url]’s granddaughter Zara [url=“http://searchtopics.independent.ie/topic/Philips”]Philips (30) earlier this year.
He was seen kissing and groping a blonde girl and rubbed his face in her breasts, according to The Sun newspaper today.
A statement released by the Rugby Football Union in response to The Sun’s allegation today said: Mike and several of the players were enjoying an evening out after he had led the team to a hard-earned victory over Argentina. Like all the lads he plays for England with a massive amount of passion and he was relaxing after a tough match.’’
The statement concluded that no further comment would be made, despite the newspaper report suggesting Tindall ``kissed and groped’’ the woman before burying his head in her cleavage.
England beat Argentina 13-9 last Saturday and the events allegedly took place at a Queenstown nightclub after the game.
Why was there no further info on the dwarf throwing?!
I watched a few minutes of that game. This is supposed to be the ‘world cup’ right? One of the Russian players couldn’t kick a ball over from 20 yards, right in front of the posts. How can it be taken seriously as a sport if teams competing at a so called world cup can’t do something any junior football team would be capable of? Or maybe the standard isn’t that much above junior football?
USA defeat Russia 13-6 in the battle of the Cold War superpowers
I signed a non-disclosure agreement
You don’t know shit man
It was a joke, but I think you missed it.
Ah a joke. I get jokes.
Worse was when he had to kick a penalty into the corner and booted into the dead ball 10 yards from the sideline.
Mmmm, skillful. If it wasn’t for gambling I wouldn’t give a shit.
I may have found an interesting betting opportunity. Either that or I’ve been dreaming about odds again.
I’ll let you know if or when the market reappears.
At least you’re betting on it, the other lad is watching Russia play USA in a sport he proclaims to hate!
Ok, I have entered the world of spread betting. 2 markets.
This will end in utter disaster or some kind of small time misleading borderline success.
So the market I was referring to earlier was the Yellow Card market which has been a bit of a focus of mine in the past. There has been 12 World Cup matches so far.
There has been 3 yellow cards so far which is one card every 4 games. The first market I saw for yellow cards was 45 in the tournament.
That came in before the start of the tournament to mid/high 30s.
I got on at over 36.5 because following the yellow cards in the soccer world cup was curiously entertaining when you want lads to kick each other. I expected the same level of entertainment. It didn’t happen.
So it is fairly obvious that barring a huge turnaround that bet is dead.
As things stand this competition is on course for 12 yellow cards which is much lower than expected.
What’s more, I have seen ample opportunity in some matches for referees to get their cards out and they have failed to. It feels like they are making a conscious effort to only card when they have no other option. Todd Clever hit a Russian fella with a filthy late shoulder in the face late in the game today. Penalty, not even a mention of a card in the whole game.
If the ratio of cards per game doubles from 1 in 4 to 1 in 2 we’d be looking at 21 cards.
If it trebles to 3 cards in 4, it’s 30 cards. The ratio trebling seems pretty unlikely. Doubling would be a big shift as well. I had a look at the previous World Cup to see if there was any strange distribution. i.e. Were there more cards in the knockout stages compared to the group stages. Marginally but nothing extraordinary. There were 34 yellows.
The current market available on bet365 is Over 26.5 @10/11 Under@ 4/5.
So I found a market on SportingIndex.
http://www.sportingi…ials/M3556516_1 I’m selling at 26 for a medium amount per card. Could be a disaster, we’ll see. 26 is 23 cards in 36 matches from now on. Just over 3 cards every 5 games, which would be a big statistical leap.
The second market is on the same link there. It is a market for the aggregate margins of victory in all games. It currently is down as 1130-1150 points. So in the 48 games, the 48 margins of victory will total between 1130 and 1150. So across 48 games it is an average of 23.5 points victory per game. In the 12 games so far the total stands at 192 points or 16 points per game.
This is basically an accumulation of all the handicap bets so far. In the 12 games so far 11 +handicap teams have won. i.e. the margin of victory has been less than expected.
Unless some teams really start cutting loose in games against minnows I can’t see them reaching this figure. As I have said before, it seems to me that minnows have a better handle on defence than in the past and hammering teams is muc more difficult than before. Also, the shit weather has helped. When we get to the knockout stages we will naturally hit under the 23.5 point average.
I’m selling 1130 points at a tiny amount per point. Again, could be great, could be a pile of dung.
My figures are expecting the average to be closer to 20 than 23.5. That could lead to a tidy profit.
We’ll see.