Great post cld. Got in on spread betting myself during the summer. Far more thinking than normal fixed odds but the rewards are there.
There’s similar markets at http://www.sportsspread.com/Betting/Markets_List.aspx?event=9051 if you want a comparison but one prices off the other so you won’t find much different. I would imagine the number of cards will increase per game as the better teams come up against each other but under 26 looks good unless there’s an all out brawl. With 4 q-finals, 2 semi finals, a final and a playoff - 8 matches, you would think there could be 1 card per game which could skew your average.
Have you looked through what cards there’s been in the games where top 10 nations played each other? Wales vs. SA, England vs Argentina? Looking at those would be a better indicator than matches involving lesser teams as you’d imagine refs won’t want to sin bin players from smaller teams to avoid all out hockeyings.
Very interesting and I would have a lot of respect for your punting skills CD. You are on the ball big time.
Playing devils advocate with the above.
Bet 1- I think the cards are less likely because there will be an unavoidable bias from the referees to the underdogs. USA should have had a player carded against Ireland no question for example, I think the refs are slow to get the cards out to keep the games from getting out of hand. If games are one sided refs might not bother giving the YC. As stakes get higher I think the rate will increase, no doubt.
Like the bet overall though, one YC in the Eng/Arg game was ridiculous I think there was 12/13 kickable penalties in normal circumstances would have expected at least a couple from them infringements let alone the filth that was going on.
Bet 2- Made the point about the fitness earlier and to be fair it didnt affect the US, but think as the pools go on the gaps will widen significantly. If NZ put a ton on Japan tomorrow how will that affect your average? Margins will shrink in the knockouts but still no question Oz/SA/NZ/France could all beat Ireland/Wales/Samoa/Scotland by 20 + if they clicked.
The following pool games remain where I see big margins a possibility
NZ over Japan
SA over namibia
France over Canada
Irel over Russia
Wales Namibia
Oz over Russia
France over Tonga
Even those shouldnt result in margin over 350 total, unless someone does a massive number. Could be NZ tomo in which case you might have a bit of a sweat.
The bet looks good though to be fair and wouldnt put you off either of them at all.
I went through the remaining games and assigned speculative margins of victory. I gave NZ 55 against Japan and 60 against Canada. The thing is the 23.5 average makes up for it when games are tight.
Like Canada Tonga 5
USA Russia 7
South Africa Wales 1
Argentina England 4
That’s a 70+ point saving already so you can live with a few hockeyings.
A couple of triple digit beatings would be a blow though.
That England Argentina Georgia Scotland group looks like a gift for this.
I see mention of the Haika there and I was thinking myself how fucking annoying it must be for the competing teams over there. Every time they have an open training session or visit a school or hospital or go on an outing on an off day, they’re met with a pack of retards standing in front of them jumping up and down and roaring. This Haika bollox is a load of shit.* Get out of my face.
Other than the time the Munster ‘B’ players did one back to the All Blacks ‘C’ team a couple of years ago. That was deadly.
It pushes it up to 20 which is where I hope it stays.
Not the end of the world. NZ won by 20 points over what was expected. If it went triple digit it would have been a bigger issue.
I actually backed NZ in running -73 so I’m happy enough. I clawed back what I lost to the average that way.
