2012 GAA Betting Thread

Was O’Dowd one of the ones tipping up Mayo to beat Donegal? Someone might confirm…

Larry O’Gorman wasn’t a corner back either…

Would Canning become the first ever HOTY to have won YHOTY as well?

did corcoran get one there in´92?..or wud that have been young hurler?..or did he get either??.. :strokechin:

Got his all star at corner back though for some reason.

I think you’ll find the answer to that is no,the Dunph

I thought Murphy was only 23?

[quote=“Watch The Break, post: 679568”]

Got his all star at corner back though for some reason.[/quote]

Yeah, a case of fitting lads in. He hurled in midfield and at left half back that year. Dropped back into the half back line when Seanie Flood cried off injured before the final. George O’Connor came in at midfield and flaked Sean O’Neill out of it at the throw in. Barry Foley got 4 first half points off Rod Guiney before Larry was switched across to sort him out.

Have to laugh at guys flagging guys off for choosing Mayo. Theses are the same people who picked Kerry, Cork and even Tyrone to beat Donegal this year. And almost everyone picked Dublin ti beat Mayo, so it’s nit like ye are some footballing prediction guru’s. This championship has left us all in our ass generally.

Who are you referring to here?

I think you will find that both Puke and myself tipped up Donegal months back Kev…

I know, but I have not seen ye blowing on about it really. I said last year they’d be very close to winning it within 2 years when everyone was ridiculing their defensive methods and conditioning program. I remember saying it would take 2-3 years to get to their best. Obviously I picked Cork in the semi final based on their form and experience. Fair play to Donegal, it’s one of the most impressive All Ireland runs in history, they beat some serious opposition. I was also ridiculed by Somehorse amongst others who kept questioning my value in Mayo and my prediction of them being front runners, which they clearly are. People forget how consistent Mayo are.

If I was still a betting man I’d read Dara O Cinneade before any bet. His analysis is superb and it was uncanny how he nailed the Final. I don’t always agree with him completely and he can be slightly, understandably, Kerrycentric but invariably he is spot on. It’s a pity he is not involved in an English speaking sports program, everyone would then appreciate how good he is.

Me too. Bet on Donegal to win AI before Kerry game. 13/2.

Canning isn’t having the same kind of year as Shanahan in 2007. He has been good no doubt but if Galway don’t win I don’t think he gets the nod.

The sentamentality surrounding Shefflin winning a 9th medal if it happens will see him be HOTY. The comeback in the final was all Shefflin. The way he pushed the pace and drove his teammates on was incredible. If he drives Kilkenny over the line again it’ll be him.

If Galway win I expect it will be Canning.

From that point of view then the odds for HOTY in my opinion should match the odds for the match and they don’t.

I’m not going to touch the market as it is.
I got Shefflin at 16/1 the morning of the first final.

Young hurler of the year has to be eligable for under 21 this year.

Paul Murphy’s last year of 21s for Kilkenny was 2010, when he played midfield for them, making him around 23. Coen was minor in 2009 IIRC

That’s where you are wrong. There’s no sentimentality for Shefflin outside of Kilkenny. Everyone outside the county thinks he is an unsporting cunt.

You’re right about Coen - sure he was on the Galway U21 team this year so there’s no doubts about his eligibility.

Ya, I remember him at midfield, one match in particular where he came storming through and banged one from 60 yards. The cusack stand went nuts. That match was also a sweet one for George O’Connor as a lot people had said he was finished before that year.

:lol: :clap:

Bollox, there was a lad on the AI Sunday Game last year who picked Shefflin for HOTY when he was nowhere near the best Kilkenny player last year.
This year if he plays like he did the last day and we win it’ll be a very easy choice.

Let me give ye the maths on this.
To lift the cup the odds are the best odds you can get is:
Kilkenny 2/5
Galway 2/1

2/5 implies a 71% chance.
2/1 implies a 33% chance.

For HOTY:
I’ll give you the top 5 and their best odds and % chance.
Joe Canning 8/15 or 65% chance
Henry Shefflin 11/4 or 26% chance
Brian Hogan 7/1 or 12.5% chance
TJ Reid 16/1 or 6% chance
Iarla Tannion 22/1 or 4.3% chance

The HOTY odds are pretty much inverse of the match odds.

The big question here in the context of these odds is: Who here thinks that a Galway player will be HOTY if Kilkenny wins?

The history of this award shows all but 2 winners coming from the AI winners.
It was hard to argue against Shanahan in 2007. Is the same the case today? I don’t think it is.