In all seriousness Mac , if you find out what the blick leds were doing in Breffni Park, we’ll let you stay.
Just listening to the RTE podcast, Shane Stapleton, of the Daily Star, feels McManus would be remembered as an all-time great if he played for Dublin of Kerry.
I don’t think he’s on JOD’s level, to be fair.
Fermanagh 0-06 - 0-04 Antrim
The saviour of gaelic football. 
Derry and Down has to me looked like the most intriguing Ulster clash since the draw was made. Two sides if at their full pelt are more than capable of taking a provincial title. Both sides chopped and changed a lot during the league and will swap their league status next year but I was very disappointed with Down in their league final outing, maybe they just happened to be poor on the day but they will need to be much better on the day - the squad has had quite an upheaval under McCorry so they’re will be a lot of relatively inexperienced players playing against Derry. Derry on the other hand look stronger to me than last year playing personnel wise but unfortunately they seem to have suffered a lot of injuries, they have found their midfield options decimated for the game - luckily it shouldn’t be a problem with Derry for this game as midfield is by a long way Down’s weakest area.
I’d imagine Derry will line out something along these lines:
- Mallon
- Duffy
- Rogers
- McBride
- Johnson
- Chrissy McKaigue
- Sean Leo McGoldrick
- Lynch
- Doherty* (if fit, McAtamney if not)
- Kielt
- Heavron
- Lynn
- Herron
- O’Boyle
- Bradley
From what I’ve heard - Patsy Bradley, PJ McCloskey, Emmett Bradley, Paudie McGuigan and Niall Holly are all out these guys are all natural midfielders so they are struggling for options in that area.
Not going to attempt to name the Down team as they are a bit of an unknown this year.
-
Thomas Mallon (An Lúb)
-
Oisín Duffy (Forghleann)
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Brendan Rogers (Sleacht Néill)
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Dermot McBride (Baile na Scrine)
-
Kevin Johnston (Dún Geimhin)
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Chrissy McKaigue (Sleacht Néill)
-
Ciarán McFaul (Gleann)
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Niall Holly (Eoghan Rua)
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Fergal Doherty (Baile Eachaidh)
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Sean Leo McGoldrick (Eoghan Rua)
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Mark Lynch (Beannchar) (capt)
-
Enda Lynn (Grainloch)
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Benny Heron (Baile na Scrine)
-
Eoin Bradley (Gleann an Iolair)
-
Daniel Heavron (Machaire Fíolta)
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Eoin McNicholl (Gleann an Iolair)
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Liam McGoldrick (Eoghan Rua)
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Aidan McAlynn (An Lúb)
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Conor McAtamney (Suaitreach)
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Terence O’Brien (An Lúb)
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Neill McNicholl (Gleann an Iolair)
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Conor Murphy (Dún Geimhin)
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James Kielt (Cill Ria)
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Cailean O’Boyle (Leamhaigh)
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Daniel McKinless (Baile an Doire)
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Niall Loughlin (Grainloch)
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Brian Óg McGilligan (Beannchar)
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Seán Brady (Baile Mhic Guaigín)
I would imagine McFaul and McGoldrick will swap positions there, still seems to be a lot of absentees but a strong looking side. I feel if Derry play to their potential they will just be too physically imposing and hard to penetrate for Down.
No location for Monaghan/Fermanagh yet Nimbo? I presume it’ll be Breffni. I notice other counties starting to whinge about home advantage since we’ve shed our ‘whipping boys’ tag.
[QUOTE=“Nembo Kid, post: 1153490, member: 2514”]Derry and Down has to me looked like the most intriguing Ulster clash since the draw was made. Two sides if at their full pelt are more than capable of taking a provincial title. Both sides chopped and changed a lot during the league and will swap their league status next year but I was very disappointed with Down in their league final outing, maybe they just happened to be poor on the day but they will need to be much better on the day - the squad has had quite an upheaval under McCorry so they’re will be a lot of relatively inexperienced players playing against Derry. Derry on the other hand look stronger to me than last year playing personnel wise but unfortunately they seem to have suffered a lot of injuries, they have found their midfield options decimated for the game - luckily it shouldn’t be a problem with Derry for this game as midfield is by a long way Down’s weakest area.
I’d imagine Derry will line out something along these lines:
- Mallon
- Duffy
- Rogers
- McBride
- Johnson
- Chrissy McKaigue
- Sean Leo McGoldrick
- Lynch
- Doherty* (if fit, McAtamney if not)
- Kielt
- Heavron
- Lynn
- Herron
- O’Boyle
- Bradley
From what I’ve heard - Patsy Bradley, PJ McCloskey, Emmett Bradley, Paudie McGuigan and Niall Holly are all out these guys are all natural midfielders so they are struggling for options in that area.
Not going to attempt to name the Down team as they are a bit of an unknown this year.[/QUOTE]
Do you seriously believe either of these teams are better than Monaghan or Donegal? The 2 mentioned are significantly ahead of the rest of Ulster. Although they had hard fought 1st games the teams they played clearly targeted them while I would expect Donegal and Monaghan to be peaking later in the year. To be honest I think Donegal took the foot off the pedal a bit and nearly got caught out. Some uncharactistic defending kept Tyrone in it and I would expect those things to be ironed out.
Derry arguably have the talent but nothing has changed at club level to allow them really move on at county level. In a general sense for the large majority of their playing population they are better off with the emphasis on the club game. It’s great to be honest. But were they to really care about winning at IC that would have to change.
[QUOTE=“caoimhaoin, post: 1153646, member: 273”]Do you seriously believe either of these teams are better than Monaghan or Donegal? The 2 mentioned are significantly ahead of the rest of Ulster. Although they had hard fought 1st games the teams they played clearly targeted them while I would expect Donegal and Monaghan to be peaking later in the year. To be honest I think Donegal took the foot off the pedal a bit and nearly got caught out. Some uncharactistic defending kept Tyrone in it and I would expect those things to be ironed out.
Derry arguably have the talent but nothing has changed at club level to allow them really move on at county level. In a general sense for the large majority of their playing population they are better off with the emphasis on the club game. It’s great to be honest. But were they to really care about winning at IC that would have to change.[/QUOTE]
Better? No.
Are they capable of beating them on any given day? Most certainly. It’s the minute margins which decide games in Ulster.
As for the Tyrone Donegal game. Tyrone were the better team for 50 minutes and in the end Tyrone will kick themselves for losing that. McCurry wasting a host of frees he’d normally nail, Cavanagh, Donnelly, McCrory and Harte not taking their goal chances and conceding 1-01 in a minutes at the end of a half when they were in their most dominant period of the game.
Donegal put in a very good performance and Tyrone gave as good as they got, in the end being a little unfortunate to lose. That is the reality of what happened.
Donegal dismantled Tyrone for 40 mins. The goal kept Tyrone alive.
You must have watched a game nobody else did. Tyrone’s poor start killed them but after the first 15 min they were the dominant team for the remainder of the game.
Good summary of the game here, where the facts are (of course) in complete contrast to Kevin’s take on events.
[SIZE=5]Donegal V Tyrone 2015 Ulster Championship[/SIZE]
May 18, 2015
For those new to the blog, or who haven’t been here for a while, please find a refresher on the definitions and how the numbers are compiled here
Overall
Team Possessions Attacks Attack % Shots Shot % Scores Success % Weighting
Donegal 41 31 76% 25 81% 14 56% +2.102
Tyrone 48 43 90% 27 63% 11 41% -2.477
Avg 37.0 28.7 77.7% 14.7 51.2%
Tyrone had their chances. They had two more shots than Donegal, after engineering 12 more attacks, but ultimately it was Donegal’s superior shooting and efficiency that saw them through. Sound familiar? Below are the returns from the 2013 game. Eerily similar. The faces may change (Joe McMahon, Stephen O’Neill, Rory Kavanagh, Leo McLoone, Jim McGuinness) put the pattern remains.
Overall
Team Possessions Attacks Attack % Shots Shot % Scores Success % Weighting
Donegal 43 29 67% 18 62% 12 67% +2.761
Tyrone 49 37 76% 29 78% 10 41% -3.015
Both teams went about accumulating their shots in very different manners. Donegal dropped back not engaging Tyrone until they crossed their 45. This enabled Tyrone to convert a very high proportion (90%) of their possessions to an attack. Tyrone on the other hand were more inclined to press thus stopping Donegal getting vast sways of their possession into an attacking position. As we have seen however, both in the corresponding 2013 fixture and throughout this team’s existence, Donegal are deadly efficient when they are at their best.
Shots from Play
Team Shots Scores Success % Weighting
Donegal 21 11 52% +1.183
Tyrone 21 8 38% -1.169
Avgs 21.4 9.7 45.3%
One might think that a large part of Tyrone’s inefficiencies here came from their goal attempts. They did have six shots at goal with only McCurry’s attempt registering however when they went for points they were only average – a combined stat line of 7 from 15 (47%) with a weighting of -0.141. Looking at the shot charts below there weren’t too many outlandish speculative attempts – it was just average shooting from average positions.
Donegal on the other hand were 59% (10 from 17) with a combined weighting of +1.535 when going for a point.
One area Donegal will review is the Tyrone goal. McCurry found himself in acres of space after drifting in behind the defence following a quick free in the middle of the park. Excuse the poor drawing (!) but you can see in the below snapshots that Donegal had plenty of men back but Ryan McHugh got sucked into the ball allowing the space to appear.
https://dontfoul.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/photogrid_1431876004273.jpg?w=450&h=450
Shots from deadballs
Player Shots Scores Success % Weighting
M Murphy (Donegal) 4 3 75% +0.919
S Cavanagh (Tyrone) 3 3 100% +0.624
D McCurry (Tyrone) 3 0 0% -1.932
team avgs 7.2 4.9 68.7%
All the regulation frees were converted.
Séan Cavanagh’s placed ball day was good getting the two in front of goal you would expect any intercounty layer to convert whilst also swinging over the only difficult one he had from the left.
In 2013 Niall Morgan had a poor day converting one from six however he was in the main attempting very difficult long range “boomers” that are missed more often than they are converted. Although McCurry only missed three frees, compared to Morgan’s five, his day was perhaps even worse given that two of his frees were relatively easy. Granted the one in the second half was against the wind but he missed on the near side.
It was to Tyrone’s credit that Donegal’s first attempt at a score from a free was not until the 51st minute. Murphy missed that one but then took over converting two long range efforts including a 45 near to the right sideline – the wrong side for a right footer.
Turnovers
Team “coughing up” possession Volume Shots from Turnovers %
Donegal 20 10 50%
Tyrone 24 13 54%
One area that Donegal will no doubt review is their turnovers. Not necessarily the volume but where they gave them away. Of the 20 turnovers given up four were within their own 65. Tyrone only managed one point from this but in another tight outing – against Armagh or possibly Monaghan – that could yield precious scores.
Perhaps even more surprising is that Karl Lacey gave up three of those four. I’m guessing he won’t like this week’s video review session!
Kickouts
Donegal’s kickouts Won % Turned into an attack % Shot %
Donegal 11 52% 6 55% 5 45%
Tyrone 10 48% 9 90% 6 83%
Tyrone’s kickouts Won % Turned into an attack % Shot %
Donegal 5 25% 4 80% 4 80%
Tyrone 15 75% 14 93% 9 60%
At a macro level Tyrone won the kickout battle. Donegal’s kickout, from a volume & shot perspective, was a washout whilst Tyrone kept the ball by going short on their own. Strike out the short kickouts – which are not really contestable – and Tyrone win the kickout battle 15 – 12. Not as comprehensive but still a position of strength.
Donegal went short on four of their kickouts; of the 17 that crossed the 45 Tyrone got their hands on ten. Once they got ahead Donegal did not go short once.
On the opposite end of the scale Tyrone went short with 50% (10 out of 20) of their kickouts. Of those that passed the 45 the teams were split 50:50 (5 apiece) in terms of who came up with the ball. Against the wind in the second half they went short with 78% (7 out of 9) of their kickouts – this was obviously aided by Donegal who were dropping back to protect the lead.
Shot Charts
Donegal’s shooting
https://dontfoul.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/donegal-shooting-v-tyrone-15.png?w=450&h=422
Note; I’m not sure if it was an issue with my feed or RTE but there was a blue screen for one of McElhinney’s attempts at a point. We know it went wide but we do not know where it was taken from so it is not represented in the above chart. For weighting purposes it is assumed the shot was taken from Sector 4 as the camera panned to McElhinney trotting back to midfield from the right hand side post shot.
Tyrone’s shooting
https://dontfoul.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/tyrone-shooting-v-donegal-15.png?w=450&h=422
x = missed, disc = score, yellow = deadball, black = 1st half from play, white = 2nd half from play,
Players with >= 3 shots from play
Nothing earth shattering though it is noteworthy that McFadden got two of his three attempts. As noted (here) he had a very poor 2014. It was nice to see him back converting one lovely one with the outside of the left just before half time as well as jinking through for a shot at goal that was ultimately called back for a foul he incurred on his way through.
Shots Scores Success % Weighting
M McElhinney (Donegal) 5 3 60% +0.658
C McAliskey (Tyrone) 4 3 75% +1.040
C Toye (Donegal) 4 2 50% -0.004
P McBrearty (Donegal) 3 2 67% +0.894
C McFadden (Donegal) 3 2 67% +0.442
S Cavanagh (Tyrone) 3 2 33% -0.218
Tags: 2015[/URL], [URL=‘https://dontfoul.wordpress.com/tag/championship-2/’]championship[/URL], [URL=‘https://dontfoul.wordpress.com/tag/donegal/’]Donegal[/URL], [URL=‘https://dontfoul.wordpress.com/tag/tyrone/’]Tyrone[/URL], [URL=‘https://dontfoul.wordpress.com/tag/ulster/’]ulster
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[SIZE=5]Colm McFadden – a review[/SIZE]
May 15, 2015
The last time we saw Donegal was in the league semi-final against Cork which was fairly unremarkable apart from both teams’ ability to get shots off at a high rate – in the mid 80% against an average of 77%. It is only one metric but a fairly large indicator of a game lacking intensity.
One thing that did peak my interest however was the performance of Colm McFadden. In a high scoring open game he only managed 0-02 from play and did not attempt any frees. I had a vague recollection of noting a declining performance throughout 2014 so decided to have a look. Thanks to the BBC’s coverage of the Ulster Championship we have all bar one of Donegal’s game over the past three years and below are McFadden’s returns over that span.
Attempts Scores Success Rate Weighting
Deadball 53 40 75% +3.499
Play 52 23 44% -0.196
Total 105 63 60% +3.303
Not bad. His shooting from play is bang on average but given the volume of shots he takes that’s ok. Average does not equal bad! His deadball accuracy however is very good – perhaps only below Cluxton and O’Connor in terms of per kick weighting. In truth there’s nothing to see here but the more you do this the more you understand that averages can hide a lot.
Attempts Scores Success Rate Weighting
Deadball
2012 27 22 81% +4.566
2013 13 8 62% -0.770
2014 13 10 77% -0.297
From play
2012 24 13 54% +2.226
2013 11 6 55% +1.987
2014 17 4 24% -4.409
McFadden was stupendous, both from deadballs & from play, in Donegal’s march towards Sam in 2012. But he was so good on that run that when we take the average from the last three years it is masking a very big drop off in both categories.
McFadden’s deadball accuracy has dropped from the unsustainable highs of 2012 to just below average over the last two years. Although his combined Success Rate for 2013 & 2014 is high at 77% the negative weighting shows you that he is taking easy, or at least easier, frees – he should actually be converting closer to 80% (similarly the high weighting in 2012 shows you that he was converting more difficult frees more often).
The real drop off has occurred with his shooting from play however.
Attempts Scores Success Rate Weighting
Point attempts
2012 21 11 52% +1.240
2013 8 4 50% +1.001
2014 14 3 21% -4.395
Goal attempts
2012 3 2 67% +0.986
2013 3 2 67% +0.986
2014 3 1 33% -0.014
McFadden was never prolific from play but he was always above average in his returns. That was until last year. During the six 2014 games McFadden had 14 attempts at a point – and only converted three. And all three were simple attempts from around the penalty spot. He did not convert one point attempt from outside the 20m line in six games.
McFadden’s 2014 point attempts
https://dontfoul.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/mcfadden-2014.png?w=450&h=422
It was not as if he was trying harder shots in 2014 – the opposite actually. Of his 14 point attempts in 2014 ten, or 71%, were in the optimal shooting zones of 5 & 8 (see the shot chart above). In 2012 & 2013, when he was converting at ~50%, only 35% of his shots were coming from these central areas. There was nothing in terms of pressure to explain the drop off. Last year 57% of his shots were taken under pressure – in 2012 & 2013 that figure was 66%.
The data on file begins in 2012 which is unfortunate for McFadden. It was, as Ciaran McMonagle of the samsforthehill blog pointed out to me, a career year for McFadden when Donegal were purring and they were playing to his strengths. 2013 was a bit of a washout for Donegal but in this case was instructive as to how easily Drew Wylie handled McFadden in the Ulster Final. Monaghan were on the lookout for McFadden’s favourite play – the loop inside from the right hand side curving the ball over with the left – and completely snuffed it out.
2014 was a down year but was that McFadden or the way Donegal set up? The loop play disappeared but a lot of that was due to the fact that Murphy spent considerable chunks of time in the middle allowing closer attention on McFadden. Alongside that we saw the further emergence of two left footers in MacNiallais & McBrearty. McFadden’s space narrowed, his foil was missing and he’s not blessed with speed. Not a great mixture.
What does 2015 hold? Usually when you have big swings in data like this you’ll get a regression to the mean but will McFadden be given the space, and as importantly the game time, to rack up the shots? Interesting year ahead.
No, Kevin. Not dumb, facts that prove you either don’t understand or are incapable of commenting objectively.
This was the Down team that were knocked out by Kildare in last year’s Championship.
Down: M Cunningham; D McCartan, D Rooney (0-01), D O’Hagan (0-01); C McCartan, C Garvey, K McKernan; D Gordon, P Turley; B Coulter (0-04), C Maginn (0-01), M Poland; D O’Hare (0-03, 3f), N Madine, C Laverty (0-01).
O’Hagan is the only player 1-9 who starts for Down on Sunday. It’s a very decent looking forward line and they have further options on the bench with it too in the likes of the Johnstones and Madine so that won’t be a problem. It’s 1-9 that will be the issue for him, a few new faces in there so interesting to see how they get on. I feel they could do with a bigger presence in the full forward line as the likes of Laverty and O’Hare are quite small and would benefit from a target man in there. I still think Derry will win this but it’s a very hard one to call.
Marty Clarke and Oisin in the studio today.
Derry minors beat Down minors 2-11 to 1-07.
O’Rourke thinks Brendan Rogers plays for Down, what a fucking fool.
Colm O’Rourke is some fucking ape
Rogers is class.
Skinner.